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VacantPossession

The Total Farce Which Is Uk Housing

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It is not just UK conventional owner-housing that is a farce, it is rental housing too. Everyone is in on the act.

We have lost the plot (excuse the pun). Housing is or should be a service, but we have become utterly brainwashed into assuming it is a rarely earned privilege only available to those willing to sacrifice, lie, manipulate and play the game. UK housing is, in some other areas of Europe, considered a laughing stock.

What other civilised Northern European country would consider a shoebox in a no-go area of violence and vandalism "desirable" for the equivalent price of eight years hard earned salary? What other country has such archaic tenancy laws that result in tenancy agreements assuming everyone is a crook, per se, and are therefore couched in terms which give a pathetic 6 months tenure through paranoia and fear of exploitation on both sides?

What other civilised nation is prepared to allow such sub-standard accomodation to be regarded as reasonable?

We have become falsely convinced that a typical UK property, with its ghastly mediocrity, its bad taste, poor construction, tiny space, cupboard sized rooms and stone-aged insulation, is somehow worth the exhorbitant price on the basis that it remains an "investment", even when it has reached a level which is, by any sane judgement, already a fantasy beyond comprehension.

If you look for historical reasons for the joke that is the average english "home" you see ample evidence in novels like "Down and Out in Paris and London" and "Of Human Bondage", or any Dickens novel, where the tone is set for an unchallenged acceptance that UK homes are expected to be, even welcomed, as seedy, inadequate, mean and expensive. There is also evidence that the feudalism which hundreds of years ago defined the relationships between landowners and serfs is every bit as present today, only it has become grotesquely translated into a contemporary distortion of its former self: an all-comers licence to exploit and rip off in the name of "canny" investments through 100% mortgages profligately distributed by lenders whose original purpose was to encourage thrift, fairness and enlightenment but now have become utterly corrupt, undiscerning and a major contributor to epidemic debt and wholesale corruption.

What should be a simple roof over one's head has now become a vast exercise in gambling, the consequences of which deny those with little enthusiasm for the game a basic need as important as the air they breath, and which gives the seediest of motives an opportunity for outrageous and un-taxed profits through the exploitation of a resource too important and too fundamental for any intelligent government to consign to the control of spivs, crooks and low-life opportunists.

It is clear that, whatever the outcome of the current market, whether there is a crash or not, nothing is going to address the long term urgent need for such a finite resource to be at least even half controlled for the sake of fairness and equity. The fact is that property has become a disastrous substitute for real wealth because by itself it does not and cannot ever be a tangible source of real prosperity. It only pretends that illusion because of the ability of those at the top of its pyramid to exploit those not yet half way up the pyramid's unscalable walls. The profits which those at the top somehow imagine has magically appeared from nowhere has in fact been virtually stolen from those yet to rise from the foundations.

This decadent and wholly corrupt system of "housing" has become a banal caricature of itself, but has got so out of hand, and is now subscribed to by so many, that it seems to have reached a point of no return. There are now too many individuals who have a personal vested interest (quite apart from corporate vested interests) so strong that it is hard to find a single person who will not feel threatened by shutting the whole edifice down. And yet we are all in the end greatly harmed by continuing to allow property to be the whimsical play-thing of those who have no regard whatsoever for the consequences of their little attempts to corner a piece of property-induced profit.

I find it extraordinary that in a politically correct age, where for instance organic and additive free foods are demanded, where smoking has become a virtual crime in public places, where other comparitively trivial "anti-social" acts are frowned upon with a ferocity out of all proportion to the GLOBAL harm they do, somehow the opportunity to grossly exploit a fundamental and highly limited resource, ie: housing, is considered to be perfectly ok. This is no doubt because just one personal transaction is perceived as hardly making a dent in the system, but in fact the accumulation of thousands of such transactions have directly resulted in housing in this country becoming the appallingly expensive, unattainable mess it currently is.

VacantPossession

Edited by VacantPossession

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Do you feel better now?

Just relax, every other financial bubble in history has burst with the burst being greater than the rise. This IS the biggest financial bubble in history.

The Roman slave bubble led to 'rights' of workers for a wage which led to the economic collapse of Rome which led to the Visigoths appearing on the Seventh hill.

Tulipmania ruined the entire country of the Netherlands when peopel figured out that the scrapings from the tulip auction rooms were not worth the same value of a small farm.

The South Seas bubble wrecked many rich and ordinary people alike. Some, like Issac Newton, made a fortune from it and then, being greedy, lost it never to recover.

Several UK housing bubbles, 1910 - 12 and the lates 1980s to early 1990s, ruined the lives of so many that some have still not recovered to this day from the latter one.

The dot.con bubble, an era of untold prosperity, turned out to be a scam built on lies, corruption and false accounting.

Why do you think this bubble will be any different? The Universe, to quote someone else, is unfolding as it should.

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Do you feel better now?

Not particularly.

My point was not that bubbles don't get popped eventually. It was that it is time we did something to stop the tedious rise and falls which make a game out of something too important to be a game.

VP

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It is not just UK conventional owner-housing that is a farce, it is rental housing too. Everyone is in on the act.

[....]

I find it extraordinary that in a politically correct age, where for instance organic and additive free foods are demanded, where smoking has become a virtual crime in public places, where other comparitively trivial "anti-social" acts are frowned upon with a ferocity out of all proportion to the GLOBAL harm they do, somehow the opportunity to grossly exploit a fundamental and highly limited resource, ie: housing, is considered to be perfectly ok. This is no doubt because just one personal transaction is perceived as hardly making a dent in the system, but in fact the accumulation of thousands of such transactions have directly resulted in housing in this country becoming the appallingly expensive, unattainable mess it currently is.

VacantPossession

Wow, damn good writing my friend.

When the revolution comes, will you be my speechwriter?

frugalista

The Roman slave bubble led to 'rights' of workers for a wage which led to the economic collapse of Rome which led to the Visigoths appearing on the Seventh hill.

[...]

Several UK housing bubbles, 1910 - 12 and the lates 1980s to early 1990s, ruined the lives of so many that some have still not recovered to this day from the latter one.

I haven't heard of the Roman slave bubble or the housing bubble of 1910-12, tell me more.

frugalista

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VP, your frustration at our pathetic exscuse for a civilised world is shared by many.

However, we are incapable of any significant improvement within our life times IMO.

It's too late to prevent the melting of the ice caps!

Both the Islamist terrorists and the White House are doing the work of God!

Need I go on.

Except this and you can avoid the painful depression phase.

Beer?

:D

CB.

Edited by Culpability Brown

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VP, your frustration at our pathetic exscuse for a civilised world is shared by many.

However, we are incapable of any significant improvement within our life times IMO.

It's too late to prevent the melting of the ice caps!

Both the Islamist terrorists and the White House are doing the work of God!

Need I go on.

Except this and you can avoid the pointless depression phase.

Beer?

:D

CB.

He he...actually a nice cool bottle of sauvignon will do. I'm not actually that depressed about it. Doesn't mean I shouldn't let rip occasionally

;)

VP

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I haven't heard of the Roman slave bubble or the housing bubble of 1910-12, tell me more.

frugalista

1. Roman Slave bubble.

Well, it is complicated but basically there was a bubble in slaves - prices rose which, initially, seemed fine but slaves cost money in terms of upkeep... so you pay more for your slaves and then you have your upkeep costs on top of that. This resulted in an economic crisis which resulted in people being made bankrupt, no longer being able to afford to keep slaves let alone buy them and so peopel ended up having to pay for people to do jobs that they used to have slaves for. One of these was agriculture but no one foresaw the enormous costs that this would involve. Indirectly, this put a huge economic burden on Rome from which it never truly recovered and, whilst in itself was not the sole cause of Rome's demise, was a major contributor. Empires, after all, rely on military might and economic might to dominate.

2.

About 1909 UK HPs began to rise and rise and rise. This carried on until about 1911ish when they crashed BIG TIME losing about 90% of their value in less than a year. It is virtually forgotten now but, yep, it happened. It is said that several of the rich types who died on the Titanic were actually on the Titanic as they had been en route to the US to try and reocver some of their wealth that they had lost in the crash.

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He he...actually a nice cool bottle of sauvignon will do. I'm not actually that depressed about it. Doesn't mean I shouldn't let rip occasionally

;)

VP

Certainly not. I don't really believe we should bury our heads either.

I also edited my post as there is nothing pointless about depression.

Cheers x

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nice rant. i loved every word of it.

answer is simple. re-instate council homes for rent only. sensible rents. sensible houses. no need to buy.

that would remove the whole merry go round. as it is people have no choice and are forced to pay.

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2.

About 1909 UK HPs began to rise and rise and rise. This carried on until about 1911ish when they crashed BIG TIME losing about 90% of their value in less than a year. It is virtually forgotten now but, yep, it happened. It is said that several of the rich types who died on the Titanic were actually on the Titanic as they had been en route to the US to try and reocver some of their wealth that they had lost in the crash.

Fantastic piece of history. Thanks for that. (liked the slave bubble too but it was not quite so close to HOME).

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There were several factors that came together at the end of the first decade of the 1990s - government legislation, workers championing for more rights/pay, economic conditions, etc, etc, but it all ended up, very much as now, in huge property speculation and a resounding crash. An awful lot of once well to do people lost everything.

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nice rant. i loved every word of it.

answer is simple. re-instate council homes for rent only. sensible rents. sensible houses. no need to buy.

that would remove the whole merry go round. as it is people have no choice and are forced to pay.

Agreed....and thanks.

VP

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well what we waiting for....?

lets get em'......

im planning a one man action by riding around central london on me dads moped pulling HPC wheelies.

or im going to unfurl an aluminium HPC kite close to some overhead power lines.

im going to nail a large HPC banner to the walls of a gas storage tank.

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Are you members of a union then? Have you done anything about it?

Do you not think HPI will not increase further? I do.

My uncle sold his 3 bed in 2001 aftter a divorse, for £110k (which believe it or not was a massive sum in 2001) Prices ran up so rapidly he decided to rent. The family lost touch with him he moved around so much from rental to rental. His property is now £412k.

My family has been badly affected by this immense HPI.

When I make my predictions - price rises - on factual data it is because you can only ever get hurt if you do not seek the truth of whats happening. It only takes a few back of envelope calcs to work out the next years HPI from Browns gaming of the market.

VP has been consistant in arguing with my posts in 2003/4.

If he was more objective, he would have at least directed his anger and energies in the right directions, from miltiancy to unionisation instead of blind emotional denial, and the belief in a housepricecrash.

I enjoyed your post above though - the horror and realisation that hit me a long time ago.

History is a great guide as to the future.

As GDP falls, taxes will increase, real work - hard work - risk taking work not going-through-the-motions work - will disappear. Productivity will fall further as incentives dry up further. Looser money will mop up that unemployment, but create more HPI, thus more disincentive and more liabilties.

The Inflation measure will stay low. Fiscal policy to mop up unemployment/inflate the housing market will create more taxes or borrowing.

An ID card scheme and population register will catagorise and label everyone in 2008. I believe this will be used to generate the increased taxes through a range of penailties or fines on social behavour, then increasingly imposing on the individual.

HPI can only go one way - thats up - under Brown.

Do you not ask yourself - what am I working so hard for?

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I think you will find the slaves were only viewed as costly because of the national population register and burden of rising ID card taxes in the Roman empire. Each head of the roman household had to pay the taxes for the slaves he kept, there was therefore a massive number of freemen, who had to fend for themselves.

The below text by Constantine - the Gordan Brown of his day - is a actual translation, and is the reason why the Roman empire collapsed under rising HPI and rising taxes.

1. Roman Slave bubble.

Well, it is complicated but basically there was a bubble in slaves - prices rose which, initially, seemed fine but slaves cost money in terms of upkeep... so you pay more for your slaves and then you have your upkeep costs on top of that. This resulted in an economic crisis which resulted in people being made bankrupt, no longer being able to afford to keep slaves let alone buy them and so peopel ended up having to pay for people to do jobs that they used to have slaves for. One of these was agriculture but no one foresaw the enormous costs that this would involve. Indirectly, this put a huge economic burden on Rome from which it never truly recovered and, whilst in itself was not the sole cause of Rome's demise, was a major contributor. Empires, after all, rely on military might and economic might to dominate.

2.

About 1909 UK HPs began to rise and rise and rise. This carried on until about 1911ish when they crashed BIG TIME losing about 90% of their value in less than a year. It is virtually forgotten now but, yep, it happened. It is said that several of the rich types who died on the Titanic were actually on the Titanic as they had been en route to the US to try and reocver some of their wealth that they had lost in the crash.

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VP - a worthwhile and well written post.

I would have to say though that I can't see anywhere else on the planet that has the ideal housing solution, and that the real tragedy is with how the negative effects of this speculative market bubble have spilled over into the lives of the majority of people who would rather be concentrating on other more worthwhile things like productive careers, relationships, family, friends, communities etc.

There should be a constant improvement in housing and living standards as time goes on, but for me there really only seems to be one thing fundamentally wrong with housing in the UK right now...........Price.

Luckily for us this problem, now more obviously, looks temporary.

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Temporary!!! What planet have you been on for the past 15 years?

VP - a worthwhile and well written post.

I would have to say though that I can't see anywhere else on the planet that has the ideal housing solution, and that the real tragedy is with how the negative effects of this speculative market bubble have spilled over into the lives of the majority of people who would rather be concentrating on other more worthwhile things like productive careers, relationships, family, friends, communities etc.

There should be a constant improvement in housing and living standards as time goes on, but for me there really only seems to be one thing fundamentally wrong with housing in the UK right now...........Price.

Luckily for us this problem, now more obviously, looks temporary.

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VP has been consistant in arguing with my posts in 2003/4.

I have argued your posts on one issue only.....your relentless position that all the ills of this country, including house prices, are related to immigration. I have consistently argued in return that immigration alone is not the reason, and have I think reasonably suggested that your assertions seem to have at their root an irrational fear of immigration and people not of your own colour or upbringing, which I think hides a personal and deep seated prejudice.

On most other issues you have raised, I do not have a particular view.

VP

Edited by VacantPossession

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1. Roman Slave bubble.

Well, it is complicated but basically there was a bubble in slaves - prices rose which, initially, seemed fine but slaves cost money in terms of upkeep... so you pay more for your slaves and then you have your upkeep costs on top of that. This resulted in an economic crisis which resulted in people being made bankrupt, no longer being able to afford to keep slaves let alone buy them and so peopel ended up having to pay for people to do jobs that they used to have slaves for. One of these was agriculture but no one foresaw the enormous costs that this would involve. Indirectly, this put a huge economic burden on Rome from which it never truly recovered and, whilst in itself was not the sole cause of Rome's demise, was a major contributor. Empires, after all, rely on military might and economic might to dominate.

2.

About 1909 UK HPs began to rise and rise and rise. This carried on until about 1911ish when they crashed BIG TIME losing about 90% of their value in less than a year. It is virtually forgotten now but, yep, it happened. It is said that several of the rich types who died on the Titanic were actually on the Titanic as they had been en route to the US to try and reocver some of their wealth that they had lost in the crash.

My family had a rich-type relative who died on the Titanic. (My grandfather's cousin.) We always wondered what he was doing on the ship.

Hmmmm.... :ph34r:

Edited by Yankee

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I have argued your posts on one issue only.....your relentless position that all the ills of this country, including house prices, are related to immigration. I have consistently argued in return that immigration alone is not the reason, and have I think reasonably suggested that your assertions seem to have at their root an irrational fear of immigration and people not of your own colour or upbringing, which I think personally hides a personal and deep seated prejudice.

On most other issues you have raised, I do not have a particular view.

VP

All I did was to point out the numbers, economic effects with the labour and property market.

Its interesting though that you are coming to the point of horror and realisation I reached a long time ago.

It looks like the second round of my prophesy is going to come about.

Mr Bean has stated the BOE will be cutting rates in 2006, which will inflate the property market even further as investors can get finance on more stock and more people will have to rent as they do not have equity.

This will drive more BTL business. From 2006 to 2008 this will be the pattern I think.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/...1937569,00.html

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All I did was to point out the numbers, economic effects with the labour and property market.

Its interesting though that you are coming to the point of horror and realisation I reached a long time ago.

It looks like the second round of my prophesy is going to come about.

Mr Bean has stated the BOE will be cutting rates in 2006, which will inflate the property market even further as investors can get finance on more stock and more people will have to rent as they do not have equity.

This will drive more BTL business. From 2006 to 2008 this will be the pattern I think.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/...1937569,00.html

Won't happen BC. If no-one wants to rent your newbuild flat at any price the fact that your mortgage servicing costs - let's say £100k at 5% currently - drop by £250 or £500 per annum (0.25 or 0.5%) isn't going to stop you haemorraging cash month on month on maintenance service charges and council tax as well as the mortgage.

Secondly interest rate cuts tend to provide a boost for stock prices and the differential in returns between housing and stocks (stocks outperformed houses by 20% in 2005) will lead to more speculators baling out to obtain positive yields and a chance of capital gain - a prospect even the bulls concede is unlikely for houses in the next few years.

In short - I think you are wrong.

The Fox

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Hmm... I think on a cashflow/investor basis this will make a difference.

The key reason many on the shadow MPC cite for raising rates - Gordan Pepper etc.. is that the increase in the money supply - in double digits - (i.e. from lending) will feed through to inflation in production and employment at this stage.

If you look recently at the yield curve it has went -ve to a degree that normally predicts bank lending will have to slow down - i.e. a credit crunch?. www.yieldcurve.co.uk

The BOE according to Bean now plans to lower the front end in 2006, because wage gains in the very pressured private sector labour market are not strong, therefore there is no inflation - this will greatly increase credit, and property prices IMO. If he is right, with more people attracted to the UK because of this, labour will become even cheaper, and property gain much more in value.

There is thus no limit?

Won't happen BC. If no-one wants to rent your newbuild flat at any price the fact that your mortgage servicing costs - let's say £100k at 5% currently - drop by £250 or £500 per annum (0.25 or 0.5%) isn't going to stop you haemorraging cash month on month on maintenance service charges and council tax as well as the mortgage.

Secondly interest rate cuts tend to provide a boost for stock prices and the differential in returns between housing and stocks (stocks outperformed houses by 20% in 2005) will lead to more speculators baling out to obtain positive yields and a chance of capital gain - a prospect even the bulls concede is unlikely for houses in the next few years.

In short - I think you are wrong.

The Fox

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All I did was to point out the numbers, economic effects with the labour and property market.

Its interesting though that you are coming to the point of horror and realisation I reached a long time ago.

It looks like the second round of my prophesy is going to come about.

Mr Bean has stated the BOE will be cutting rates in 2006, which will inflate the property market even further as investors can get finance on more stock and more people will have to rent as they do not have equity.

This will drive more BTL business. From 2006 to 2008 this will be the pattern I think.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/...1937569,00.html

Brainclamp..

less then 800,000 since 1971...

thats how much our population has grown..

thought you might have liked that..

In devon it has shrunk..

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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