House Prices To Rocket

[karhu]

I didn't say that falling salaries support house price inflation. I said that HPI can be supported by borrowers being prepared to lend greater multiples of income even if salaries are stagnant. This is clearly already happening.

BS

Goodness me, your argument changes like the wind. I never said anything about falling salaries. I was merely making the point that just because house prices increase this doens't necessarily mean that there will be an associated increase in people salaries.

So you think that lending multiples can increase ad infinitum? Or is there a limit? Assuming that salaries stay roughly constant. As the multiples increase the risk to the banks increase massively.

[right_freds_dead]

id say we are at that limit.

[BillyShears]

OK. Now that this thread has got to 100 messages (including mine) I admit all.

I'm a troll. I don't believe that house prices can continue rising indefinitely. I don't know what will happen and when. I was just indulging in a bit of black humour (or attempt thereof) by satirising by extreme example the arguments I hear about why house prices will keep on going up and up and up.

Apologies if I've offended anyone. I was sort of letting off steam built up due to frustration with the housing market.

BS

[apom]

Enough to affect the psychology of home-owners such that they will not sell for a loss.

BS

I am seeing real world 20% drops on new builds..

so this is not comparing similar houses..

IT IS COMPARING IDENTICAL BUILDS.

Its happening .. if this was not a wind up I would find it frustrating.

bless you.

P.s..

the 20% of does not includwe cashback offer of £10,000

thats in a year..

as long as the crash continues not to happen in exactly this way for a couple more years I should see even better savings ..

[karhu]

OK. Now that this thread has got to 100 messages (including mine) I admit all.

I'm a troll. I don't believe that house prices can continue rising indefinitely. I don't know what will happen and when. I was just indulging in a bit of black humour (or attempt thereof) by satirising by extreme example the arguments I hear about why house prices will keep on going up and up and up.

Apologies if I've offended anyone. I was sort of letting off steam built up due to frustration with the housing market.

BS

Hahahahah. Thanks for admitting. This thread gave me a laugh. Your argument got more and more desperate.

[neilrich]

I didn't say that falling salaries support house price inflation. I said that HPI can be supported by borrowers being prepared to lend greater multiples of income even if salaries are stagnant. This is clearly already happening.

BS

What you are saying then Billy is that you personally would be prepared to borrow 10x or 15x your salary to purchase a property. You would also happy in the future to see your children borrow 20x or 30x their salaries and then for your grandchildren to borrow 40x or 60x!!!

The British economy would long since have sunk under the MOUNTAIN OF DEBT!!

I'm sorry but BillyShears but I think you are a fool and you don't understand ECONOMICS.

[BillyShears]

Hahahahah. Thanks for admitting. This thread gave me a laugh. Your argument got more and more desperate.

I wouldn't say "desperate". I was aiming at a fairly whacked out argument, but not too whacked out that nobody could believe that someone could believe what I was pretending to believe.

BS

[karhu]

I wouldn't say "desperate". I was aiming at a fairly whacked out argument, but not too whacked out that nobody could believe that someone could believe what I was pretending to believe.

BS

By the way, was the "BS" intended. I really couldn't take you seriously with that signature.

You really shouldn't have bothered. There really are no valid "devil's advocate" arguments left against the imminent HPC. Enjoy.

[BillyShears]

By the way, was the "BS" intended. I really couldn't take you seriously with that signature.

You really shouldn't have bothered. There really are no valid "devil's advocate" arguments left against the imminent HPC. Enjoy.

The "BS" was a happy accident. I noticed it upon signing signature, and it fitted perfectly. Practical jokes are much better if there's some subtle hint there that the whole thing is a joke.

BS

[karhu]

The "BS" was a happy accident. I noticed it upon signing signature, and it fitted perfectly. Practical jokes are much better if there's some subtle hint there that the whole thing is a joke.

BS

For the record, can you please tell us what you REALLY think about the housing situation in the UK?

[Elizabeth]

The "BS" was a happy accident. I noticed it upon signing signature, and it fitted perfectly. Practical jokes are much better if there's some subtle hint there that the whole thing is a joke.

BS

So let me get this straight. While I have been valiantly defending your newbie honour, you were simply doing this as a joke. There was a string out about 3 weeks ago, with 'lets all pretend to be bulls'. You did a brilliant job of representing the sincere, serious, dumb*rse mainstream that I have to contend with every day. Congratulations.

[BillyShears]

For the record, can you please tell us what you REALLY think about the housing situation in the UK?

Houses are way overpriced. This cannot go on forever. All commentators are too bound up with either vested interests or positions to which they are emotionally attached to make reliable predictions. I don't know whether house prices will go up or down in 2006.

I have a vested interest in prices going down as I do not own one. Last last year I moved from London to Leicester. In Leicester I can afford a house even at current prices, though it would be a strain. My partner would much prefer we move to Brighton or similar, but it's not realistic.

Is that detailed enough?

BS

[Catch22]

The "BS" was a happy accident. I noticed it upon signing signature, and it fitted perfectly. Practical jokes are much better if there's some subtle hint there that the whole thing is a joke.

BS

You didn't fool me Billy I knew Shane would win the Xfactor but I got to hand it to you, you had em going alright.

Edited December 18, 2005 by Catch22

[BillyShears]

So let me get this straight. While I have been valiantly defending your newbie honour, you were simply doing this as a joke. There was a string out about 3 weeks ago, with 'lets all pretend to be bulls'. You did a brilliant job of representing the sincere, serious, dumb*rse mainstream that I have to contend with every day. Congratulations.

If examined in sufficient detail, the beliefs of people who believe in indefinite HPI have beliefs that if examined carefully depend on unspoken and/or unexamined rather silly assumptions. I was trying to create a false argument where these silly assumptions were both explicit and central.

I know, I know. Don't give up the day job :-)

BS

You didn't fool me Billy I knew Shane would win the Xfactor but I got to hand it to you, you had em going alright.

Your predictions are better than mine. I was sure Colin Jackson was going to win Strictly Come Dancing.

BS

[Levy process]

I think this snobby dismissive long winded explanation with little interest of the facts (as we are going to see a crash lol) is typical of the Bears valium posts here.

LP - It is not 'only 4000 keyworkers' who will take up the scheme - or varoius schemes - you have not got any real chance have you if you don't even bother to keep up with developments!

GB's latest wheese is 200-300,000 shared buyer schemes - reducing mortgage costs by 30-40%, paid for by the taxpayer - what about them? Suddenly a £200,000 home is the starter level.

You have been wrong for years - if that doesn't teach you to be humble in the face of the house price monster (like it has me) then you will be just where GB wants you - working for nothing as your real wages are inflated away by the house price monster.

lOOK lOSER: What's all this "I haven't got any chance", and "You have been wrong for years" stuff. I haven't "been wrong" for years at all. I only joined the forum recently. I'm just interested in debate, not in being right, unlike you who is beginning to sound rather self important. I don't give a hoot what happens at a personal level, one way or the other. I own a house. I'd like a bigger one, but then everybody would like something more wouldn't they? Of course at an intellectual level I'd be satisfied if there was a crash, or at least a reduction, because that would fit my idea of what would be good for fairness in society, and I'd get some more space to live in.

I've read the stuff you post on here. You describe yourself as being humble. Ha! You seem pretty pompous and puffed up with your ideas to me. To be honest, I think your vision of the future is just a hand wringing, fretting, scared, cowering little nightmare of yours. You talk as if you see some sort of government conspiracy to turn people into slaves. All very interesting for a novel. But real life - I doubt it.

I suspect the truth will turn out to be rather boring - probably something like this: Labour will lose popularity a bit, house prices will fall a bit but not as much as one might hope if one doesn't have a house, followed by a long time with nothing much happening, and then it's too far in the future to predict.

Edited December 18, 2005 by Levy process

[brainclamp]

Its a shame any real debate needs a troll to start it.

It doesn't matter what you think - what matters are the facts which you keep trying to present as unfavourable, which they are not.

Neither you or me alone can change the outcome, you can just try to understand whats going on.

By the way - What do you think will happen with the coming RATE CUTS in 2006?

lOOK lOSER: What's all this "I haven't got any chance", and "You have been wrong for years" stuff. I haven't "been wrong" for years at all. I only joined the forum recently. I'm just interested in debate, not in being right, unlike you who is beginning to sound rather self important. I don't give a hoot what happens at a personal level, one way or the other. I own a house. I'd like a bigger one, but then everybody would like something more wouldn't they? Of course at an intellectual level I'd be satisfied if there was a crash, or at least a reduction, because that would fit my idea of what would be good for fairness in society, and I'd get some more space to live in.

I've read the stuff you post on here. You describe yourself as being humble. Ha! You seem pretty pompous and puffed up with your ideas to me. To be honest, I think your vision of the future is just a hand wringing, fretting, scared, cowering little nightmare of yours. You talk as if you see some sort of government conspiracy to turn people into slaves. All very interesting for a novel. But real life - I doubt it.

I suspect the truth will turn out to be rather boring - probably something like this: Labour will lose popularity a bit, house prices will fall a bit but not as much as one might hope if one doesn't have a house, followed by a long time with nothing much happening, and then it's too far in the future to predict.

Edited December 18, 2005 by brainclamp

[sign_of_the_times]

Its a shame any real debate needs a troll to start it.

It doesn't matter what you think - what matters are the facts which you keep trying to present as unfavourable, which they are not.

Neither you or me alone can change the outcome, you can just try to understand whats going on.

By the way - What do you think will happen with the coming RATE CUTS in 2006?

too little, too late do ya ?

[frugalista]

OK. Now that this thread has got to 100 messages (including mine) I admit all.

I'm a troll. I don't believe that house prices can continue rising indefinitely. I don't know what will happen and when. I was just indulging in a bit of black humour (or attempt thereof) by satirising by extreme example the arguments I hear about why house prices will keep on going up and up and up.

Apologies if I've offended anyone. I was sort of letting off steam built up due to frustration with the housing market.

BS

Yes, it must have been a wind up. There was no other way to explain the perfect grammar, spelling and composition used to express such utter non-sequiturs.

Still, good to stir up the old hornets' nest now and again.

frugalista

Edited December 18, 2005 by frugalista

[beerhunter]

OK. Now that this thread has got to 100 messages (including mine) I admit all.

I'm a troll. I don't believe that house prices can continue rising indefinitely. I don't know what will happen and when. I was just indulging in a bit of black humour (or attempt thereof) by satirising by extreme example the arguments I hear about why house prices will keep on going up and up and up.

Apologies if I've offended anyone. I was sort of letting off steam built up due to frustration with the housing market.

BS

Nice one It was telling how people reacted...

I had a suspicion (not from BillyShears but the phrase "Welcome to HPC.co.uk, the one and only BillyShears."... ) but didn't act on it.

Frugalista... ?

[Levy process]

Neither you or me alone can change the outcome, you can just try to understand whats going on.

By the way - What do you think will happen with the coming RATE CUTS in 2006?

OK, in my opinion there is very likely to be a rate cut, and very possibly two, over the next year. However, I think the "reason" for these if they do happen will be that consumer spending is failing, and the retailers are likely to really start to suffer over the next year. So the cuts will be to stimulate business and stimulate high street spending, because the average person has run out of borrowing opportunities with the current interest rates. This means that it will be a reaction to what is effectively people running out of spending power, and so I doubt it will have much effect on the housing market. Whatever effect it does have, I doubt it will be enough to boost HPI above wage inflation, and if it does manage that, it will only be a tiny amount. I reckon the days of 15-20% growth in house prices are gone for decades now.

IMHO, the interest rate cuts we might see over the next few years are qualitatively different to those of the last 5 years or so, because they were proactive, and made from a position of strength, whereas I think we've moved into a reactionary climate, which means they will generally only alleviate further difficulty rather than produce any real improvement in spending and property prices (taking the word "improvement" in this case to mean real terms increase).

For the record, I think any support that cuts forced upon us to support high street spending will only be a short term solution to that problem, and that any support it gives to the house market will be socially damaging; but that's an opinion about what I think should happen rather than what I think will happen.

Edited December 19, 2005 by Levy process