Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
TheCountOfNowhere

Who Said The Ftse Would Hit 10000 By Christmas?

Recommended Posts

did I read a few weeks back someone predicting the FTSE would hit 10000? maybe they meant 1000.

print money and give it to the spivs...FTSE goes up.

stop money printing...

it's hardly rocket science.

the big question is, when will they start printing money for their friends again?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Closing in on below 6000.

FTSE will hit 10,000 eventually, because some day we will have massive inflation (not saying when, may be 30 years away for all I know). I believe the Venezuelan stock market is currently one of the best performer's.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yup, no sign of a Christmas rally this year. For all the doom and gloom written about equities I still don't see many other options for income investors. With an ageing population hunting a yield on their savings there must be an underlying demand. The FTSE100 is roughly flat this year, the FTSE250 is up a bit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Two reasons not to invest in UK equities...

(1) You think the market will never revisit 6,000 ever (even though it was at 6930 sixteen years ago and this is a nominal not inflation adjusted index) because the yield on Equity is bound to beat the return on fixed rate bonds over the next few years. We have an inversion of the usual position here....about 4.0% against 1.5% in the bank and an inflation adjusted loss on bonds.

(2) You think the market will capitulate and you will be able to fill your boots at a cheaper price....5,000, 4,000. Of course on revisitation of 6,000 all investors will have won even those invested today. It could work but you are betting on the Market being too thick to work out number one.

Edited by crashmonitor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks more like a change of trend is trying to establish itself to me. The main indices are down or flat for the year. Exception being the FTSE250, which has been trending down since late spring.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

have you changed your mind yet?

the big question has got to be, will they go Zimbabwe on us or just let the collapse happen?

Why dont you read what I said on the tread.

Theres no need for you to start a new one on the main forum every day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yup, no sign of a Christmas rally this year. For all the doom and gloom written about equities I still don't see many other options for income investors. With an ageing population hunting a yield on their savings there must be an underlying demand. The FTSE100 is roughly flat this year, the FTSE250 is up a bit.

Santa rally doesn't come until post 15th December, historically.

Not saying he's coming just when he has done.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Will end the year above 6000. But next year continue its gradual slide.

cheap houses are bearing down on us.

Flattening yield curve suggests ongoing pressure on stocks. Not rocket science.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

when you look the 30 year chart like this ...

https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=ftse%20100

Its hard to see any upside above about 7000 even in the long term, over the last 15 years the only real money to made was timing on the big dips.

Of course that is a nominal chart...it's flat since 1987 peak, inflation adjusted, and about 50% down from 1999.

Meanwhile every other asset class on the planet has at least tripled this century including gold.

edit. and was I in FTSE in 1999, was I hell I was in property. I got into the FTSE 100 during the Greek crash of May 2012 at 5,300 and a token amount because basically I am a Bear at heart.

Edited by crashmonitor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Two reasons not to invest in UK equities...

(1) You think the market will never revisit 6,000 ever (even though it was at 6930 sixteen years ago and this is a nominal not inflation adjusted index) because the yield on Equity is bound to beat the return on fixed rate bonds over the next few years. We have an inversion of the usual position here....about 4.0% against 1.5% in the bank and an inflation adjusted loss on bonds.

(2) You think the market will capitulate and you will be able to fill your boots at a cheaper price....5,000, 4,000. Of course on revisitation of 6,000 all investors will have won even those invested today. It could work but you are betting on the Market being too thick to work out number one.

(3) The UK economy is still hopelessly waterlogged with debt.

(4) There's a tsunami of industrial deflation engulfing the world to which the FTSE is uniquely exposed.

A belief in these two propositions has rewarded me handsomely, this year and last.

At some point Moron Carney will realise the Bank's general equilibrium models are wildly errant and reverse direction. If the example of his predecessor is anything to go by that will be very late in the day. Mervo the Clown, I recall, was still extolling the virtues of the 'NICE' decade in 2008, even as the UK economy crashed around his ears. Until then, as I see it, all the money is on the short side.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, everyone is waiting to see what Yellen does on the 16th and how the US markets react.

The FTSE has a load of copper and iron miners in it which are get crushed and has dragged it down. Hard to see an upturn for them apart from, perhaps, a plunging USD in the short term if Yellen does not raise.

The supermarkets are also in a mess in the FTSE - does anyone think that they are having a good Christmas?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(3) The UK economy is still hopelessly waterlogged with debt.

(4) There's a tsunami of industrial deflation engulfing the world to which the FTSE is uniquely exposed.

A belief in these two propositions has rewarded me handsomely, this year and last.

At some point Moron Carney will realise the Bank's general equilibrium models are wildly errant and reverse direction. If the example of his predecessor is anything to go by that will be very late in the day. Mervo the Clown, I recall, was still extolling the virtues of the 'NICE' decade in 2008, even as the UK economy crashed around his ears. Until then, as I see it, all the money is on the short side.

Classic long trade then isnt it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Flattening yield curve suggests ongoing pressure on stocks. Not rocket science.

wrong. Economy and stocks outperform as yield curve flattens. Not rocket science indeed.

Positive curve 2-10 years out excellent for blow off phase. If it wasnt then central banks wouldnt need to raise short rates (flatten curve) at all. Recessions dont occur until AFTER at least 1 year of INVERTED curve.

No idea why you would claim otherwise, data is very clear on this.

In terms of probabilities then, CB policy is unlikely to cause a recession until curve has inverted - lets say minimum 2 years. If FED goes with <0.25 steps over longer period could well be longer than that. If curve inverts, say, 2018 then recession (caused by curve inversion) unlikely til 2019 at the earliest. If theres more labour slack/supply potential then, ceteris parabus, could well be even later.

Edited by R K

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(6) The developing and third world are also waterlogged with debt, including China.

They were beginning to consume off the back of loans and commodity exports and their own property bubbles but that is over. This is why exports, goods, engineering, construction, mining and materials etc are all headed into the slide as well. The localised debt riddled economic mismanagement has been made global.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, everyone is waiting to see what Yellen does on the 16th and how the US markets react.

The FTSE has a load of copper and iron miners in it which are get crushed and has dragged it down. Hard to see an upturn for them apart from, perhaps, a plunging USD in the short term if Yellen does not raise.

The supermarkets are also in a mess in the FTSE - does anyone think that they are having a good Christmas?

I agree supermarkets struggling, miners struggling, oil struggling. Financials, pharma, other stores should do ok. Meanwhile UK consumer getting drunk on cheap oil, cheap credit and full employment, I would expect these factors to improve profitable on the home front if not the global stocks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There is likely to be one constraining force in putting a bottom under this Market correction.

We have gone from a situation where UK Equity used to make up about 50% of UK net assets, that's collapsed to about 20%. At these valuations further investment becomes pointless as the pay back from further expansion becomes negative. Our overseas earnings and current account have also collapsed, as we used to pay our way in the world as investors. Add on impaired household balance sheets and pensions and in spite of the UK consumer having money to burn it can only last if we have a strong corporate sector to employ these consumers.

Central Banks wont stand idlly by thinking we can just get by selling houses to each other as an alternative to a strong Corporate and employment sector.

Edited by crashmonitor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Next General Election   93 members have voted

    1. 1. When do you predict the next general election will be held?


      • 2019
      • 2020
      • 2021
      • 2022

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.