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Has Anyone A Crystal Ball?


whome_yesyou
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Where are you? As far as I can see there's no need for lamentation. Any rise since the supposed bottom has been pretty insignificant.

The NIRPPI Report. which covers every single transaction in Northern Ireland, claims that the average house has increased from it's lowest level (Q1 2013) from £94,882 (Standardised Price) to £116,765 (Q3 2015). It shows that there have been consistent increases for the last 10 consecutive quarters, totalling £21,883 per average house or 23%.

This increase, in different amounts has been across all house types and across all locations.

I do not consider that insignificant, pretty or otherwise.

Despite this considerable increase (in my view) it's Standardised Price remains £92,500 or 44% below its highest recorded average in Q3 2007.

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NI's population increases on average by 10,000 people per year. Basically 25,000 births & 15,000 deaths. Immigration and migration swings one way and then another, sometimes 1,500 loss per year sometimes that in gains. The projections are for this trend of 10,000 gain per year going forward.

From a housing point of view it is the demographics that are more important than the increased population. Our population is ageing, with an ageing population you will have more single and duel households than previously. Therefore our household size will shift from something like 2.5 (people per house) to something like 2.3. The difference on a 1.85m people would be a shift from 740,000 households to 800,000 houses for the same population. Added to that is the population growth and the replacement stock.

You must have missed the 150K extra leaving since the 70s. The population growth is a relatively recent thing. Government breeding disincentives (universal credit) will probably have an effect. The middle classes are having smaller families.

What projections? The DSD ones that have changed every year?

Edited by 2buyornot2buy
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You must have missed the 150K extra leaving since the 70s. The population growth is a relatively recent thing. Government breeding disincentives (universal credit) will probably have an effect. The middle classes are having smaller families.

What projections? The DSD ones that have changed every year?

The population in 2001 was 1.685m

The population in 2011 was 1.811.

Increase of 126k people over 10 years taking account of immigration and emigration.

The projections show this figure to increase to 1.9m in 2020

There has been a long term trend of smaller family size and the household size has reduced from 2.6 (people per house) in 2001 to 2.54 in 2011. which means that we need more houses to house the same population never mind a growing population.

Whilst there is a lower family size this has been more than offset by people living longer.

The projections and current figures are published by the Statistics and Research Agency

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The population in 2001 was 1.685m

The population in 2011 was 1.811.

Increase of 126k people over 10 years taking account of immigration and emigration.

The projections show this figure to increase to 1.9m in 2020

There has been a long term trend of smaller family size and the household size has reduced from 2.6 (people per house) in 2001 to 2.54 in 2011. which means that we need more houses to house the same population never mind a growing population.

Whilst there is a lower family size this has been more than offset by people living longer.

The projections and current figures are published by the Statistics and Research Agency

The period in question was a complete one off. High wages, massive state support and for 4-5 years 40,000 people arriving. Those days are gone, it's all austerity now. I really can't see a future environment that supports large families or even small ones.

Sorry DFP not DSD.

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The population growth is a relatively recent thing.

Looking at some figures. The average increase per year from:

1960 to 2011 was 7,600 per year

1980 to 2011 was 8,700 per year

1990 to 2011 was 9,980 per year

2000 to 2011 was 11,000 per year

There were years of population falls in the 1920's in the formation of the state, during the 2nd world war and in the early 1970's all for well documented reasons but apart from that there has been continuous and indeed increasing growth in the population.

Population growth is not a recent thing and is projected to continue at aprox 10,000 gain for the foreseeable future.

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Looking at some figures. The average increase per year from:

1960 to 2011 was 7,600 per year

1980 to 2011 was 8,700 per year

1990 to 2011 was 9,980 per year

2000 to 2011 was 11,000 per year

There were years of population falls in the 1920's in the formation of the state, during the 2nd world war and in the early 1970's all for well documented reasons but apart from that there has been continuous and indeed increasing growth in the population.

Population growth is not a recent thing and is projected to continue at aprox 10,000 gain for the foreseeable future.

60 -70s?

70s-80s?

80s-90s?

Hell what was the growth from 1870 until 2011?

Edited by 2buyornot2buy
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No matter what happens we are an island with a finite amount of housing available. The pressure on people needing a roof over their head will only push prices up given the lack of new builds being done.

Any new builds are the usual rubbish rabbit hutch size for the mythical "Young professional couple"

BTW anything being heard of Helen from the Bel Tel recently? I haven't looked but I wonder if she has started the ramping up again she was doing back in 2005/06

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60 -70s?

70s-80s?

80s-90s?

Hell what was the growth from 1870 until 2011?

1960 to 1970 was over 10,000 pa

1970 to 1980 averages 6,000 pa but there were years of drops during the early 70's due to the troubles

1980 to 1990 was over 8,000 pa.

1870 ? the country didn't exist then. The point is population growth is not a recent event nore a complete one off as you claimed. it has been there in the background and only decreased for a few years in the 1940's and the 1970's

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1960 to 1970 was over 10,000 pa

1970 to 1980 averages 6,000 pa but there were years of drops during the early 70's due to the troubles

1980 to 1990 was over 8,000 pa.

1870 ? the country didn't exist then. The point is population growth is not a recent event nore a complete one off as you claimed. it has been there in the background and only decreased for a few years in the 1940's and the 1970's

I just picked the 1870 to highlight the fact there's been little growth since then (granted there was the famine). You made/highlighted the prediction that there would be similar growth to the 60's, 60% more growth than the 70's and 25% more growth than the 80's. Population estimates don't take account of economic factors. They look at the last number of years and extrapolate. I'll have to wait until 2040 but can't see any socioeconomic factors to promote 10k a year growth. We're moving towards a lower spending, less subsidy for large families state. If you want to base the business plan on population growth of 10k that's great.

I didn't say population growth wouldn't happen but if its come across that way I'm happy to clear that up.

What I find more worrying (from a state pension Ponzi POV), is the increase in average life expectancy. The real danger is not having enough births to feed the bottom of the Ponzi pyramid.

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NI population by census

1971 - 1,536,065

1981 - 1,532,619

1991 - 1,573,282

2001 - 1,685,267

2011- 1,810,800

Ni has added on average approx 12,000 people per year over the last twenty years

if NI ADDS 12,000 PEOPLE THIS YEAR IT WILL OF ADDED 0.66% to the population

Belfast where I live hasn't grown

1971 - 416,679
1981 - 295,223
1991 - 279,237
2001 - 276,705
2011 - 280,211
Edited by getdoon_weebobby
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[quote name="2buyornot2buy" post="1102849779"

What I find more worrying (from a state pension Ponzi POV), is the increase in average life expectancy. The real danger is not having enough births to feed the bottom of the Ponzi pyramid.

Tough. Someone invented the pill.

So we're all going to have to work till we drop. ''Twas ever thus. Either that or save your money. By not having any kids?

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NI population by census

1971 - 1,536,065

1981 - 1,532,619

1991 - 1,573,282

2001 - 1,685,267

2011- 1,810,800

Ni has added on average approx 12,000 people per year over the last twenty years

if NI ADDS 12,000 PEOPLE THIS YEAR IT WILL OF ADDED 0.66% to the population

Belfast where I live hasn't grown

1971 - 416,679
1981 - 295,223
1991 - 279,237
2001 - 276,705
2011 - 280,211

yes you are correct. Belfast lost population during the troubles. They built Craigavon and moved people from Belfast out. The problem with Belfast is its caught between the mountain and the sea so its growth is limited. They dont want it to join with Lisburn, there are currently two fields left between them and the Lagan Valley park is another buffer. therefore it can move to the east at Dundonald of towards Carryduff and again at Mallusk. Over the years that I have been building growth in Belfast has been limited whilst Lisburn has been growing.

Its called regional planning and I dont always agree with what they are doing.

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I just picked the 1870 to highlight the fact there's been little growth since then (granted there was the famine). You made/highlighted the prediction that there would be similar growth to the 60's, 60% more growth than the 70's and 25% more growth than the 80's. Population estimates don't take account of economic factors. They look at the last number of years and extrapolate. I'll have to wait until 2040 but can't see any socioeconomic factors to promote 10k a year growth. We're moving towards a lower spending, less subsidy for large families state. If you want to base the business plan on population growth of 10k that's great.

I didn't say population growth wouldn't happen but if its come across that way I'm happy to clear that up.

What I find more worrying (from a state pension Ponzi POV), is the increase in average life expectancy. The real danger is not having enough births to feed the bottom of the Ponzi pyramid.

Alot of the population growth is based on the births that have happened and the life expediency of those people. Whilst life expediency has to reach a limit we are, in our life time experiencing that growth. Our kids will live longer than us. whether their kids in turn live longer than them is questionable but that is a matter for population growth 30 to 50 years from now. I am concerned with the next 30 years and in particular the houses we need for that population. The birth rate of just under 25,000 per year is a fairly constant figure. The death rate of just under 15,000 per year is a fairly constant figure. I dont see the death rate pa increasing much and the birth rate is not going to suddenly drop therefore that extra 10,000 per year, give and take a bit for emigration and immigration, is going to be with us, well for a life time.

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yes you are correct. Belfast lost population during the troubles. They built Craigavon and moved people from Belfast out. The problem with Belfast is its caught between the mountain and the sea so its growth is limited. They dont want it to join with Lisburn, there are currently two fields left between them and the Lagan Valley park is another buffer. therefore it can move to the east at Dundonald of towards Carryduff and again at Mallusk. Over the years that I have been building growth in Belfast has been limited whilst Lisburn has been growing.

Its called regional planning and I dont always agree with what they are doing.

Craigavon had very little to do with it. Bangor and newtownards received the bulk of Belfast overspill, also downpatrick, glengormley and carryduff. Craigavon pretty much failed.

It's life expectancy, and it's strangely taken a bit of a dip recently for women. Seems it's due to the liberated generation who reached adulthood in the 60s and smoked and drank like their men.

Surely the recent reduction in funding for more than 2 children will have bearing on the rate of child bearing?

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I'm still driving past houses that have been up for sale for last couple of years. Belfast may be hot for property but not the same out in sticks.

I agree with that. There are several markets. Belfast is doing relatively well, BT9 in particular. Even here I'm starting to see houses sitting for months that would have been bid up 20%+.

Some towns aren't recovering much at all.

The BTL relief reduction, removal of wear and tear and the new second home SDLT will have a an effect on transaction numbers. No doubt about it.

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BT9 last year was going a bit crazy but as posted before quite a few deals fell through but from what I see a lot of property coming on the market is still selling quite quickly (that I notice). Use to notice countless pages for different areas that I use to keep an eye on (four winds, belfast city centre, ormeau road) - now you don't.

I travel quite a bit about Northern Ireland and you are definitely seeing new developments starting up again and some old ones being finished off.

Think we will have a really busy market before April. Some BTL will be selling up but people are still interested in BTL/second homes will be completing deals before the exta stamp duty comes in. After April will be interesting and more difficult tell what will happen. Think there will be a small rise this year - maybe 3%

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I'm going to arrange to view a house this week - I did my research at the Land Registry and the 2 houses next door that were absolutely identical sold last year for £40,000 less than this EA is asking for the house. One of them was listed for £65,000 less than this one is on at, less than 2 years previous.

Always do your own research; EA's are trying to push up prices with no basis to do so. People may not be paying the inflated asking prices that are being asked. I know in my case they certainly weren't.

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Appreciate all your views, it's interesting that most think there will be a modest rise. The stock markets have been going nuts since the new year which is hard to ignore, could this be something that would spell danger for the economy during 2016 (thus affecting house prices), I'm not sure...

I'm always intrigued by people's supposed ability to know the future. Why don't they take up gambling?

All anyone can do is guess, but there's a lot going on in the world, isn't there?

Such as collapsing stock markets, with banks doing particularly badly again today.

Edited by yadayada
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