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whome_yesyou

Has Anyone A Crystal Ball?

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With the bottom being a distant memory, how do you guys see the future in terms of house prices?

I had the opportunity to jump on at the bottom, but unfortunately read the situation completely wrong. I didn't see any catalyst for house prices to rise in the fashion they did, and still don't to justify some of the prices currently advertised today.

Yes sure, the prices were not at the insane levels of 2007, but it seems like banks and people have not learned from the mistakes of the recent past as I've noticed prices rising faster than I'd have expected.

Is this all smoke and mirrors? I know the government pushes out scheme after scheme just to keep the plates spinning. The banks appear to now have looser lending controls. Base IR is the lowest of the low. BTL previously having free reign, with accidental landlords bouncing into the frenzy (mostly because of low IR). Much wary attention around the NAMA dealings. Media propaganda. Foreign investment buying personal property for profit.

I'm just not sure where to look anymore, because all that stuff I mentioned does not equate to a stable housing market. So what is going on? If someone was looking to buy somewhere to live, would you say hold it off for a year, or just go on ahead as this whole thing is fixed anyway, so there is no risk of another major downturn. It all doesn't fill me with a great level of confidence, so hoping people on this forum can help explain some concerns.

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I had written a longer post but my computer died and I lost the lot....but basically I'm shocked at the fact that prices seem to have risen so much in a short period of time, and I can't see any 'fundamentals' to support the price rises. This all hinges on cheap lending and even then things are kind of preposterous.

I think it's only a tiny percentage of the population that are actually in the business of buying these houses. A big percentage of young people I know (mid-20's) will have no mission of buying a house, ever, given how hard jobs are to come by and how low paid the ones that are available are. So I'm not quite sure who is actually going to buy all these houses exactly.

I kick myself for not getting in when things were at their cheapest, but I still thought they were too expensive even then, and wouldn't have thought in a million years that they would shoot up the way they did.

Edited by JoeDavola

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Everyday there are less and less jobs, god only knows where it'll be in ten years. So as I always say who will buy these houses?

Just think of this I watched a tv show about the mini plant at oxford. In the 60s it employed 28000 people, yet nowadays despite the cars being significantly more sophisticated it only now employs 4000 people. The man from mini was also quick to point out there are sections of the factory that are yet to be automated. So factor in the decreased purchasing power of our money over the years then think about maybe in ten years the mini factory might only employ 400? Apple already have factories that are almost entirely automated.

So something is coming? what will happen is a best guess. They are masking the true unemployment figures with all sorts of fudging and HPI has masked many many things. The young are feeling the full force of this now so I can understand why buying a house isnt high on there agenda.

There is a very good chance the house you buy now could end up totally worthless.

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Supply and demand. Are there any immigration stats for NI.

There are. 2015 (I think) was our first year since 2010 with positive net migration. Think an extra 1500 people arrived than left. So not exactly massive. The poles arrived enmass then many left.

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I wish I had a crystal ball back in January when I stuck my house budget in an NS&I Income Bond, earning me a whopping £150 pcm... if I'd ploughed the lot into Amazon shares I'd now have enough money to afford the house of my dreams, the car of my dreams and still have a decent chunk of savings.

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Where are you? As far as I can see there's no need for lamentation. Any rise since the supposed bottom has been pretty insignificant.

Excluding the rural areas with nothing in them, rises have definitely been substantial. Places like Lisburn or Belfast, you would be paying over £150k for a semi-attached house. That's nothing to be sniffed at, especially when the bottom was around £100k for similar properties. Disclaimier: I'm not referencing anything in particular to get those figures, just purely a rough guess from memory, so hope I'm not too far away from the truth as I'm not here to mislead.

I had written a longer post but my computer died and I lost the lot....but basically I'm shocked at the fact that prices seem to have risen so much in a short period of time, and I can't see any 'fundamentals' to support the price rises. This all hinges on cheap lending and even then things are kind of preposterous.

I think it's only a tiny percentage of the population that are actually in the business of buying these houses. A big percentage of young people I know (mid-20's) will have no mission of buying a house, ever, given how hard jobs are to come by and how low paid the ones that are available are. So I'm not quite sure who is actually going to buy all these houses exactly.

I kick myself for not getting in when things were at their cheapest, but I still thought they were too expensive even then, and wouldn't have thought in a million years that they would shoot up the way they did.

This is what I'm most surprised about, is the unexpected change of direction when things seemed all samey at the bottom, and how fast it rose (or potentially rising). I thought we would all be much wiser than this, but I'm wrong. How the banks do not have stricter regulation is beyond me, if someone can borrow as much money they can get away with, history (or even the present i.e. London) tells us they will do just that, without any care or attention.

I'm kind of kicking myself too, however looking back again, I do remember there weren't many properties coming into the market that were in desirable areas (most likely due to negative equity).

<snip>

So something is coming? what will happen is a best guess. They are masking the true unemployment figures with all sorts of fudging and HPI has masked many many things. The young are feeling the full force of this now so I can understand why buying a house isnt high on there agenda.

There is a very good chance the house you buy now could end up totally worthless.

This is my concern, the uncertainty of another crash brewing. It doesn't take an economist to understand our economy is quite fragile. Is it so much to ask to have a strong environment, with houses priced reasonably and are seen as a home, not an investment vehicle?

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With regards to migrants....how many of these migrants will be in jobs that pay well enough to buy these 150K or 200K houses?

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I wish I had a crystal ball back in January when I stuck my house budget in an NS&I Income Bond, earning me a whopping £150 pcm... if I'd ploughed the lot into Amazon shares I'd now have enough money to afford the house of my dreams, the car of my dreams and still have a decent chunk of savings.

Good lord...I've just checked and they doubled in a year. Never would have guessed such an increase so quickly. Yet another opportunity missed!

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Buy to let by locals then pack them in.

The return on BTL doesn't seem that good these days, but I guess if you can just about pay the mortgage that's all people are after? I have hears rumours of migrants staying in the apartment blocks in town with several to a room, i.e. whole families or multiple families to an apartment. Don't know if that's actually true or not.

Edited by JoeDavola

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I see it happening first hand in London so no doubt it is happening in NI. Benefits are the same and cost of living lower in NI.

Interesting - I've heard stories about a handful of the major apartment blocks in central belfast to the point where I'd be in no rush to buy a flat in any of them in case they effectively become slum housing over the next decade, owned by BTL-ers with as many people crammed in to each as possible.

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Everyday there are less and less jobs, god only knows where it'll be in ten years. So as I always say who will buy these houses?

Just think of this I watched a tv show about the mini plant at oxford. In the 60s it employed 28000 people, yet nowadays despite the cars being significantly more sophisticated it only now employs 4000 people. The man from mini was also quick to point out there are sections of the factory that are yet to be automated. So factor in the decreased purchasing power of our money over the years then think about maybe in ten years the mini factory might only employ 400? Apple already have factories that are almost entirely automated.

So something is coming? what will happen is a best guess. They are masking the true unemployment figures with all sorts of fudging and HPI has masked many many things. The young are feeling the full force of this now so I can understand why buying a house isnt high on there agenda.

There is a very good chance the house you buy now could end up totally worthless.

Yes I agree, automation will take a lot of those repetitive, boring, non skilled jobs in the future.

Regarding the Mini plant in Oxford, the large number employed in the 1960's probabily made lots of parts for the car onsite.

Now adays many parts are made by out sourced companies and bought to the plant JIT or JIS.

I used to work there and guess that many jobs at Mini will still require the human touch and I believe it will stay that for a while.

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http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/many-ni-parents-fear-immigration-will-impact-on-jobs-for-their-children-1-7001787

"Since 2000, 137,950 national insurance cards and numbers have been issued to foreign born workers."

With open borders and benefits, house prices will only go one way.

NI net migration since 1997. Since the 1970's around 150,000 more left NI than arrived.

In Out NET

1996/97 16,922 17,954 -1,032

1997/98 16,911 18,696 -1,785

1998/99 17,433 22,248 -4,815

1999/00 17,748 19,975 -2,227

2000/01 18,169 19,278 -1,109

2001/02 18,998 17,982 1,016

2002/03 17,917 17,688 229

2003/04 20,419 18,854 1,565

2004/05 25,842 20,152 5,690

2005/06 28,183 20,307 7,876

2006/07 32,705 21,775 10,930

2007/08 30,402 22,688 7,714

2008/09 25,261 21,604 3,657

2009/10 24,544 23,394 1,150

2010/11 23,724 25,218 -1,494

2011/12 23,255 24,570 -1,315

2012/13 23,100 25,438 -2,338

2013/14 24,381 22,810 1,571

Edited by 2buyornot2buy

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You've been following the news recently? How long would you give this open borders and benefits gig? European migrants - 43% are on the dole. Cameron is rowing about this, probably as we speak.

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Interesting - I've heard stories about a handful of the major apartment blocks in central belfast to the point where I'd be in no rush to buy a flat in any of them in case they effectively become slum housing over the next decade, owned by BTL-ers with as many people crammed in to each as possible.

.

If it's happening, it's illegal.

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If it's happening, it's illegal.

Aye but when did that ever stop anyone. Mate of mine rents a small one bed apartment in The Arc; and when he rented it he wondered why there was a spare single mattress lying in the bedroom alongside the double bed. He's also suspects that there's people squeezing into some of the neighboring flats in larger numbers.

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Good lord...I've just checked and they doubled in a year. Never would have guessed such an increase so quickly. Yet another opportunity missed!

Aye, considering it's such a huge company with a very public image, the stratospheric rise in it's share price seems to have gone largely unnoticed for some strange reason.

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Nobody knows what will happen in the next 5-10 years - anybody claiming to have insight is just guessing like the rest of us. If I was to give advice though for what it's worth I would say that in my opinion prices will continue to rise in Northern Ireland for the next few years at a reasonably steady rate - we had our price correction that most of the rest of the UK avoided. If you want to own your own home and can afford it then I would advise you to seriously consider buying now - you can wait and hope that prices will drop but you could easily be waiting for 5 years+ for that to happen so I guess it's totally down to your own personal circumstances really.

Yes you may have missed the 'bottom' but it is likely that if you buy now you will be better off than if you hang around and watch as prices rise out of your budget. This is all guess work of course, who knows what could happen but I think it's pretty clear that those in power will do EVERYTHING they can to sustain HPI - who could have forseen the length of time they would hold IR so low?

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NI's population increases on average by 10,000 people per year. Basically 25,000 births & 15,000 deaths. Immigration and migration swings one way and then another, sometimes 1,500 loss per year sometimes that in gains. The projections are for this trend of 10,000 gain per year going forward.

From a housing point of view it is the demographics that are more important than the increased population. Our population is ageing, with an ageing population you will have more single and duel households than previously. Therefore our household size will shift from something like 2.5 (people per house) to something like 2.3. The difference on a 1.85m people would be a shift from 740,000 households to 800,000 houses for the same population. Added to that is the population growth and the replacement stock.

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