billybong Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 (edited) I'm sure every indebted, up to their necks in it, moronic mortgage owner really wants to believe that. meanwhile, them in charge are probably worried about mass unrest if the cost of anything goes up. I don't think that those in that position would like low sentiment and less lending because it would imply a real collapse in house prices and the economy - at this stage. I share your concern that they would just be bailing out the borrowers again. What do you think will happen if the US rate hike has the reverse effect of the 2005 UK rate reduction (a setback to the economy rather than a boost) - relative to interest rates and QE etc? Edited December 17, 2015 by billybong Quote Link to post Share on other sites
zugzwang Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 (edited) I don't think that those in that position would like low sentiment and less lending because it would imply a real collapse in house prices and the economy - at this stage. I share your concern that they would just be bailing out the borrowers again. What do you think will happen if the US rate hike has the reverse effect of the 2005 UK rate reduction (a setback to the economy rather than a boost) - relative to interest rates and QE etc? Bigger deficits, moar QE. Osborne will forget about balancing the budget in this parliament, if he hasn't already. Edited December 16, 2015 by zugzwang Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mikhailo Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 What's Martin Armstrong's track record of making predictions like? Obviously nobody 100% right but I haven't followed him that much so don't know what his past predictions have turned out like. He reckons US interest rates are going to go 'nuts' next year. http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong_economics_blog Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Killer Bunny Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 (edited) NIRP highly likely IMHO - bit don't for one minute imagine NIRP will help house prices. Hugely deflationary. QE4 (US) after a stock mkt crash, not before IMHO. Also, won't help HPs except in banker belt. Edited December 16, 2015 by Killer Bunny Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Venger Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 (edited) When I read something like this that is from some source other than the notorious wolf criers at zero hedge and money week I'll start to get excited. Fully know what you mean, but in this instance prepared to look at it differently. An interview with someone from the outside heavily involved in trade markets, and decisions thereof. His oil sell looks good from back then. Got to wonder how much of the $Trillions lent to emerging markets (1%) has found its way back to Western/UK/USA prime real estate last few years. Can't find the quote about fewer dollars and deflationary forces.. though it was from this thread. Agreed. My reply. When the volume of credit is large, investors can perceive vast sums of money and value where in fact there are only repayment contracts, which are financial assets dependent upon consensus valuation and the ability of debtors to pay. IOUs can be issued indefinitely, but they have value only as long as their debtors can live up to them and only to the extent that people believe that they will. The dynamics of value expansion and contraction explain why a bear market can bankrupt millions of people. NIRP highly likely IMHO - bit don't for one minute imagine NIRP will help house prices. Hugely deflationary. QE4 (US) after a stock mkt crash, not before IMHO. Also, won't help HPs except in banker belt. Fine. That's ' '. Won't help bankers HPs though. Bankers house prices alone? Only bank balance sheets, if it's necessary at all (extra QE). Not just bankers, but future generations. 4 bankers sharing a rental house in London from some average joe BTLer smugging into the papers... younger bankers have no blame. The banks have vastly more on deposit than for so many years. They're good to absorb the HPC, and then fresh lending, in volume, to younger generations. Shock and awe correction on assets of older generations. Edited December 16, 2015 by Venger Quote Link to post Share on other sites
R K Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 NIRP highly likely IMHO - bit don't for one minute imagine NIRP will help house prices. Hugely deflationary. QE4 (US) after a stock mkt crash, not before IMHO. Also, won't help HPs except in banker belt. So why would they do that then? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Noallegiance Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 0.25 raise Quote Link to post Share on other sites
giesahoose Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 Raised 0.25% Quote Link to post Share on other sites
shindigger Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 Back down again in March anyone? It's cold out there mommy. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bendy Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 Here we go! Banana republic about to be exposed for what it is (houses and insurance) Quote Link to post Share on other sites
shindigger Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 Here we go! Banana republic about to be exposed for what it is (houses and insurance) Have you been injured in an accident that wasn't your fault? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
The Masked Tulip Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 This is exciting. Let's see what happens. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
frederico Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning. Well done to everyone for holding on, now for the real job. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
The Masked Tulip Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 Gold and silver just decided that they were fed of going up today... and decided to go down... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Fat Winston Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 Breaking news...... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35117405 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Venger Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 Back down again in March anyone? It's cold out there mommy. They would lose so much credibility doing that, imo, or at least for those of us who believe they should take the longer view. And hpcers fret on about market weakness, when US prime real estate at zany high inflated prices and a generational injustice. Oh.. let me check.... US mortgages. No nothing yet - no update from today. I remember the brokers squealing at 4.65% average on the 30 year in 2013 as markets had uncertainty to Fed. Currently averaging around 4.1%. A Real Conversation About The Fed and Mortgage RatesComments (0) Read More by Matthew Graham on December 15 2015, 4:57 PM Mortgage rates jumped again today, moving to the highest levels more than a month ahead of tomorrow's hotly anticipated Fed Announcement. Many lenders are now back up to quoting 4.125% on conventional 30yr fixed scenarios, though quite a few remain at... http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/ http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/313878.aspx Mortgage rates have had a far worse week than than you've been told anywhere else, and today was even more freakishly destructive than the previous two days. Taken together, this is the worst week for mortgage rates we have on record. Today is one of two times in the past 10yrs where the average borrowing rate for top tier scenarios moved up by at least a quarter of a point. A quarter of a point may not sound like much, but in terms of day-to-day movements in 30yr fixed mortgage rates, it's catastrophic. That leaves best-execution at a stomach-churning 4.625% today. PLEASE UNDERSTAND, this is real. Freddie Mac may have been out yesterday with the industry's most commonly cited benchmark for weekly rate movements, but this is merely an average that's tallied through Wednesday. Thursday took rates another eighth to quarter higher and today took rates another quarter higher again. If you're a consumer staring at a rate quote in disbelief, or a Loan Originator who doesn't happen to be a member of MBS Live, please know that today's movements are very real and very justified based on the price movements in MBS. ---------- sorry if this is in another thread. And that entry had quite a few replies. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
rollover Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 (edited) 19:10 Fed says further moves to be 'gradual The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate Fed Statement Edited December 16, 2015 by rollover Quote Link to post Share on other sites
shindigger Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 (edited) 19:10 Fed says further moves to be 'gradual The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate Fed Statement Not gradual increases then? Just gradual moves... Chest puffing 101. Edited December 16, 2015 by shindigger Quote Link to post Share on other sites
The Masked Tulip Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 Stock market rally till March? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
canbuywontbuy Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 Japan fiddled with tiny rises, then doing nothing, then putting back the tiny rises down again. This is what we will see over the next few years: bugger all movement in rates. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
XswampyX Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 (edited) Gradually sounds almost pleasant. They boiled the frog gradually didn't they? BTL bob fell into the wood chipper gradually. The rock on the slaves back gradually got heavier. Maybe not! Edited December 16, 2015 by XswampyX Quote Link to post Share on other sites
shindigger Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 As Barry Davies once said on match of the day some years ago, "just look at the oil price! just look at the oil price!!" Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Democorruptcy Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 Wells Fargo up their mortgage rate to 3.5% but their saving rate doesn't go up. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
zugzwang Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Venger Posted December 16, 2015 Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 Wells Fargo up their mortgage rate to 3.5% but their saving rate doesn't go up. Savings will go further as sellers reduce prices. If mortgage debt becomes more expensive, leaving fewer buyers pushing and falling over themselves to pay high prices in prime markets. The SoCal hipster buyers need bringing back down to earth, imo, along with the flood of foreign money buyers. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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