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Hsbc Economist Predicts Uk Recession In 2006

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Bank's prophetess of gloom

Bank's prophetess of gloom

EVERY year an economist has the invidious task of standing up in front of the corporate titans gathered at John Studzinski’s Christmas lunch and predicting what might happen in the year ahead. The duty used to fall on Morgan Stanley’s economics guru, but in 2003 Mr Studzinski joined HSBC to build its investment banking business, so last year it was HSBC’s Stephen King who peered into the future.

England would win the Ashes, he declared. Luckily, this was the one of his predictions which came to pass, not the grim forebodings such as war in Saudi Arabia.

Yesterday, it was Mr King’s colleague, Janet Henry, who gamely took on the challenge. Her thoughts were not guaranteed to add to guests’ festive mood. Ben Bernanke, freshly installed at the US Federal Reserve, would have to cope with a hedge fund crisis. Latin America would gain more leaders of similarly vigorous leftist stance to Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez and would thus be increasingly hostile to America.

The UK would see a real slowdown in the economy. Ms Henry went so far as to use the R word — recession. The dollar would tumble. Taxes would rise and a grim housing market would lead consumer spending down. However much he tampered with the start and finish dates of the economic cycle, the Chancellor would still be facing tough times, she said.

But the gloom would not be universal. Asia’s boom would continue, she ventured, a view unlikely to find many opponents. And to finish on a high note, Ms Henry predicted that England would triumph in the football World Cup.

The writing's now on the wall...

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Bump.

"You'll never guess, those bloody pessimistic, naive, foolish doom and gloomers over at HPC only think there's going to be a HPC and recession looming next year - they seem to think 2006 is going to be a bad one for the economy with house prices collapsing and the consumer stuffed due to increasing living costs, the dollar and sterling under pressure, more risk to oil prices and all that guff. They're mad, everyone knows that property only ever goes up and that only good things happen to economies and the like. Losers. They should listen to people who do economics and money for a living, like those supposed "VIs" the Banks!"

Memo:

From: Head of Banking, HSBC

To: All Branch Managers

Seasons Greetings! Good to see you all at the Xmas bash down here in the Smoke. Well done on 2005. Tough year. Just a quick note to say that in light of Janet Henry's summation of our "2006 Outlook" the only logical course for us (and you) is to lend, lend, lend like there's no tomorrow!

Onwards and upwards as they say at RICS, Rightmove, Hometack, the BBC, NAEA etc!

Cheers. Hic.

Toodle pip.

PS We may be buying up some estate agency chains later in the year. Not just yet but we're always on the look out for bargains!

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No way............................England won't win the World Cup!!!!

BTW, when England play Sweden who do you want to win?........................

Edited by Michael

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No way............................England won't win the World Cup!!!!

England win the world cup? It would just be typical of my luck if I have to leave the UK and live in a big bunker in Siberia with all the other Scotsmen just when UK house prices start falling...

Seriously, I'm $h1tting it - England might just win it.

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BTW, when England play Sweden who do you want to win?........................

Who do you think?

TBH I couldn't give two s**ts, I hate FB. Aussie rules all the way mate!!!

TTRTR,

Great Logo:

av-166.gif

looks like, YOU finally have the property market sussed.

Each Buyer in turn, thinks he has bought at the low

Dames also seems to understand how the HPC will feel to people

who own property:

ttttt.gif

I chose it because I felt it represented the forum. Each poster kicks the previous poster off the spot with their answer.

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/4537660.stm

Recession? That'll be when companies don't invest as much?

Also an article on the guardian about "wanting a debt free christmas"

http://money.guardian.co.uk/smartspendingf...1669077,00.html

An aside ... the moderators of wikipedia have declined my friend's changes which added a simple line saying about the loss of the many small shops which existed in what is now the triangle but was previously known as the corn exchange. They're too keen on talking about the post-bomb regneration - which clearly has been good for big name companys but only at the expense of smaller companies.

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Aussie rules all the way mate!!!

thats that game thats football, only your allowed to cheat by picking it up and running off with it. and you can punch other players if you want. downsides are that you have to date goofy aussie women and wear paul hogan type rugby tops with the arms ripped off.

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thats that game thats football, only your allowed to cheat by picking it up and running off with it. and you can punch other players if you want. downsides are that you have to date goofy aussie women and wear paul hogan type rugby tops with the arms ripped off.

Nah mate. Thats rugby league. But they have got really nice butts and the shorts are better for voyeristic purposes. Can't see the point of Aussie Rules miself <_<

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Who do you think?

TBH I couldn't give two s**ts, I hate FB. Aussie rules all the way mate!!!

VI Disclaimer - Geelong member for many years :rolleyes:

You didn't happen to leave Oz for the UK in 1990, did you? :D:D

1980's Aussie Rules joke.

Guy goes to SP bookie in Melbourne, start of every season. Puts $1000 on the nose: Collingwood for the flag.

After a few years of this, the bookie says "You must be the most dyed-in-the-wool Collingwood supporter in all Melbourne, they haven't won a premiership since the 50's and you keep fronting up with your money every year."

Punter responds "I know a lot of Collingwood supporters. The day they win the flag I collect from you and I'm on the next plane out."

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Ben Bernanke, freshly installed at the US Federal Reserve, would have to cope with a hedge fund crisis.

That's the second prediction of a hedge fund crisis I've seen recently. Here's the other one from Jeff Randall in the Telegraph last week.

For my part, I think 2006 will bring to the City of London a rip-roaring scandal. As many traders celebrate this season with jumbo bonuses, I fear that the explosion in complex financial products, many of which are beyond the comprehension of all but a few technicians, will end up as a hedge too far.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...16/ccjeff16.xml

Those of us with stock portfolios might have to be pretty nimble at some point next year!

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  • 337 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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