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bubbleturbo

Is The World Trying To Right Itself?

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After 15 years circa of the world being a seriously weird place, is some semblance of order returning?

BLT'ers and greedy multiple home owners being fooked for the greater good of the young and the productive use of capital / wealth creation?

The era of super low interest rates and daft speculation about to have a serious jolt as the US starts the tightening cycle?

Oscar Prestorious getting banged up for the blatant murder he committed?

Is it just me or is logic and reality starting to return to the world after a good run of fantasy land?

Edited by bubbleturbo

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I think the system that we use as a reference point no longer really exists, certainly the financial system that we think of as a baseline reality seems gone for good- and has been replaced with a central bank driven petting zoo in which all the nasty sharp toothed animals have been excluded- the only risk left now is the risk that you might not have correctly interpreted the nuances of the latest Central bank stimulus package.

When markets rise when the economic news is bad, based on expectations of further 'stimulus' from Central Bankers, it's clear that the thing is broken.

The 2008 meltdown was the final dying spasm of the old system attempting to right itself - but the cost even then was deemed too high- so the fix was in. Does anyone really believe that the same institutions that interposed themselves then will ever be able to muster the will or the courage to stand aside in the future? I don't see how this will ever happen.

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The 2008 meltdown was the final dying spasm of the old system attempting to right itself - but the cost even then was deemed too high- so the fix was in. Does anyone really believe that the same institutions that interposed themselves then will ever be able to muster the will or the courage to stand aside in the future? I don't see how this will ever happen.

Market participants are now carrying the main risk to correction vs core financial institutions.

Right itself - vs- so many of your posts which suggest austerity is a mistake? Need to lavish people with money sort of things you tend to post, else terrible pain for renter-savers?

To answer your question; yes.

Last few years has seen a smoothing operation in the financial system, and greed pulling in those most able to carrying the weight of a HPC.

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I've wondered this too re. Recent political developments (Trump and Corbyn) and pending wage inflation.

Perhaps this is a demographic led shit in power.

Due to retirement of boomers a developing labour shortage could lead to a rebalancing: more labour power, more rights, more wages, more political power for workers etc. And end to the rentier based economy.

I hope this is the case.

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After 15 years circa of the world being a seriously weird place, is some semblance of order returning?

BLT'ers and greedy multiple home owners being fooked for the greater good of the young and the productive use of capital / wealth creation?

The era of super low interest rates and daft speculation about to have a serious jolt as the US starts the tightening cycle?

Oscar Prestorious getting banged up for the blatant murder he committed?

Is it just me or is logic and reality starting to return to the world after a good run of fantasy land?

Yes, but they have decided to bomb some Muslims again.

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It's a second Great Depression. 30+ years of reckless free market credit creation in the process of being liquidated because it can no longer be serviced or extended by the cartel of Keynesian central bankers who've been keeping it on life-support since 2008. Wealth destruction on an unprecedented scale.

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I've wondered this too re. Recent political developments (Trump and Corbyn) and pending wage inflation.

Perhaps this is a demographic led shit in power.

Due to retirement of boomers a developing labour shortage could lead to a rebalancing: more labour power, more rights, more wages, more political power for workers etc. And end to the rentier based economy.

I hope this is the case.

I tend to this view also.

Basically, Chinese labour shock is well on the way to being "absorbed" & the neo-lib era is (probably) coming to an end.

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I think you are being a tad optimistic. I think we are getting a lot of signals to say there is change in the air (can't say if it will be good or bad).

Hopefully I will be covered either way.

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It's the end of the Bliarites and Bliarism which has returned us/is slowly returning us towards sanity. Their skewed/screwed view of the world wherby they profess to be socialists and working for the common good whilst squirrelling away all available assets for themselves and their families is what did for us. At the same time as feathering their own nests they loudly derided the true socialists as terrorist sympathisers/nutters etc. They managed to hoodwink us into believing and hanging on to their every word. It started with Kinnock (EU commissioner sinecure) and is arguably still with us with Cameron (heir to Blair) but on its way out hopefully.

Once the hypocrisy and cognitive dissonance is seen for what it really is we will be well on the way to righting ourselves. Education is the key and internet forums such as HPC which deal with reality and not the brain-washing education spewed out by MSM or the education system are the way forward. It will get worse before it gets better though eg bombing in Syria although some of what's bad for rentiers will be good for the hoi polloi. HPC here we come. :D

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Market participants are now carrying the main risk to correction vs core financial institutions.

Right itself - vs- so many of your posts which suggest austerity is a mistake? Need to lavish people with money sort of things you tend to post, else terrible pain for renter-savers?

To answer your question; yes.

Last few years has seen a smoothing operation in the financial system, and greed pulling in those most able to carrying the weight of a HPC.

Austerity is a transfer of consequences away from an irresponsible and criminal financial sector and onto the backs of people who had no part in the crisis or it's causes. Saving the bankers at the expense of the poor is not the way to solve the problem of a broken financial system in which perverse incentives are the root of the problem.

If austerity worked then Greece today would be an economic superpower- instead of a failed state being propped up by other people's money.

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Right itself? Yes and no.

My view of the last 60 years is more or less this (to borrow an analogy from electrical engineering).

300px-High_accuracy_settling_time_measur

Picture that voltage V1 is somewhere between 1917 and 1965 - basically the faux-gold standard era - and that we are now positioned somewhere just above or below V2. The transition zone is probably ~1965-2007.

So the two states in question, V1 steady and V2 steady are the faux gold standard ~1850-1965 and the unconstrained fiat standard - which we have yet to experience because we have not reached steady V2 yet.

The digital step is the breaking of the final link between money and gold the response is the time taken for reality to conform.

Its a classic, simplistic systems engineering type analysis, but I think if you look at the shape of nominal debt, house prices etc over the same period you get results remarkably close to a simple electrical signal step-reponse.

So I think the perception of the world trying to right itself from the madness of the transition equates to the oscillation (technically termed 'ringing') after the maximum excursion of the parameter 'V'.

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9 hours ago, bubbleturbo said:

Bump this thread.

I think some of the recent events have shown that, somehow, the world actually is trying to right itself.

The neoliberal economic models time is now up.

Except both the Tories (Thatcher) and the Republicans (Reagan, Bush) were the key proponents of neoliberalism...

Put them back in charge and hope the result will be better this time?

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On 04/12/2015 at 10:29 AM, zugzwang said:

It's a second Great Depression. 30+ years of reckless free market credit creation in the process of being liquidated because it can no longer be serviced or extended by the cartel of Keynesian central bankers who've been keeping it on life-support since 2008. Wealth destruction on an unprecedented scale.

This

 

Reversion to the mean

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19 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

Except both the Tories (Thatcher) and the Republicans (Reagan, Bush) were the key proponents of neoliberalism...

Put them back in charge and hope the result will be better this time?

Yep. Fatchers fault.

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On 12/4/2015 at 9:34 PM, scepticus said:

Right itself? Yes and no.

My view of the last 60 years is more or less this (to borrow an analogy from electrical engineering).....

300px-High_accuracy_settling_time_measur

 

<snip>..... I think if you look at the shape of nominal debt, house prices etc over the same period you get results remarkably close to a simple electrical signal step-reponse.

So I think the perception of the world trying to right itself from the madness of the transition equates to the oscillation (technically termed 'ringing') after the maximum excursion of the parameter 'V'.

The problem is, according to Steve Keen, the oscillations aren't really stabilising. That's an illusion, that is being burst.  According to Keen, it does look a lot like your electrical diagram, but with a nasty sting in the tail.  If you're of a technical nature this lecture is well worth a watch, and precisely explains a model of why things have got the way they are..

Steve Keen explains the problem with really good economic models.

(below is a screen shot, not a video. the link is above )keen.jpg

Edited by ManVsRecession

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21 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Yep. Fatchers fault.

Well, it would be foolish to blame John Major or Tony Blair, they basically continued the same policies (privatise, globalise, pump up the financial sector at the expense of everything else). As far as I can tell the main policy difference between Labour and the Tories over the last 20 years seems to be how much funding they give to the NHS :huh:

Please enlighten us with your thoughts about how Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan were not the main driving force behind neoliberalism in western governments? Extra points are available if you stick to the dictionary definition of neoliberalism - http://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/neoliberalism.asp

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5 hours ago, Futuroid said:

Well, it would be foolish to blame John Major or Tony Blair, they basically continued the same policies (privatise, globalise, pump up the financial sector at the expense of everything else). As far as I can tell the main policy difference between Labour and the Tories over the last 20 years seems to be how much funding they give to the NHS :huh:

Please enlighten us with your thoughts about how Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan were not the main driving force behind neoliberalism in western governments? Extra points are available if you stick to the dictionary definition of neoliberalism - http://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/neoliberalism.asp

It was Fatchers. Init.

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I hesitate to quote Gramsci, for fear of sounding like a sixth form marxist, but I can think of nothing better to sum things up." The old is dying but the young cannot be born, in  this interregnum a variety of morbid symptoms appear." Debt fueled assets/ living standards became obviously unsustainable in 2008. However, the political class is unable to conceive of anything else. For morbid symptoms take your pick, zero interest rates, donald trump etc.

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38 minutes ago, nothernsoul said:

I hesitate to quote Gramsci, for fear of sounding like a sixth form marxist, but I can think of nothing better to sum things up." The old is dying but the young cannot be born, in  this interregnum a variety of morbid symptoms appear." Debt fueled assets/ living standards became obviously unsustainable in 2008. However, the political class is unable to conceive of anything else. For morbid symptoms take your pick, zero interest rates, donald trump etc.

Nah, you don't sound like a sixth former.  The current crop would not be expected to study at this level.

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