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R K

10,000 Ftse

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You know what - I can see this happening. London houseprices in ftse terms are what, 25000 or so??

Just ran that through the Nationwide house price calculator 6930 in Q4 1999 becomes 23,500 for London. Both have a yield as a rental or as the owner occupier's utilty.

One thing fo sure, if RK is right we will all be wondering why the f&&k we were sitting on our hands on 1st December 2015 after a catclysmic 16 years saw the FTSE 100 pulverised to its lowest ever comparative value to other assets. The companies have under performed but the fact it is an easy target for shorts doesn't help.

The investment books were so wrong...timing not time. 16 years is a two thirds of a career for some people.

Edited by crashmonitor

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Good timing is better than time. But time is better than bad timing! Timing is risky and beset with the problem of cognitive biases. Therefore time in the market is probably best for a lot of investors.

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Good timing is better than time. But time is better than bad timing! Timing is risky and beset with the problem of cognitive biases. Therefore time in the market is probably best for a lot of investors.

Also nominal price levels de facto ignores yield. FTSE is relatively "cheap" (not least in USD terms) , has a pretty decent comparative yield, theres plenty of room for multiple expansion,.sentiment is a long way from euphoric & (imo) were only just getting into our stride in this credit cycle.

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In some sectors pretty much the only thing left in the FTSE is the shit left over that nobody else wants to buy. We've hawked off the rest of it to the largest bidder. An index is an index and nothing else and it says nothing about the quality or viability of the constituents.

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One thing fo sure, if RK is right we will all be wondering why the f&&k we were sitting on our hands on 1st December 2015

Never use RK and right in the same sentence or book.

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Never use RK and right in the same sentence or book.

Example?

Does it still irk that Ive been right on houses, equities, gold, silver, miners, etc etc whilst youve been wrong? it would irk me too.

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Example?

Does it still irk that Ive been right on houses, equities, gold, silver, miners, etc etc whilst youve been wrong? it would irk me too.

You have to understand that here on HPC there are many posters who know exactly where FTSE 100 Companies are getting it wrong. They also know exactly what the CEO's of those companies need to be doing to get things right.

Most of those same posters can't afford a Semi in the West Midlands :lol:

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Still on target? :P

Indeed. Short term volatility may excite financial media but it is the long term which matters.

FTSE more or less doubled from 2009-2013. S&P 500 tripled. Everyone said the world would end in 2008/9 too.

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Indeed. Short term volatility may excite financial media but it is the long term which matters.

FTSE more or less doubled from 2009-2013. S&P 500 tripled. Everyone said the world would end in 2008/9 too.

At Feb lows 10,000 Ftse required an 81% increase

Today that has fallen to a 61% increase

In just 1 month

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Thought we were close to a correction at 7 45pm last night when the Obamacare repeal bill was about to fail, but then it was pulled for a second chance at the eleventh hour. It will be interesting to see what markets make of that on Monday morning once they have had time to digest the drama.

Fwiw this Trump bump can't go on and I think we might be in for a correction and a few grand spanking, But i don't feel inclined to offload what i have  in Equity with cash yielding just one percent just now. not least because most of  my money is still in cash and secondly in property.

At the moment I hold ten stocks  with projected yield at 5.4% with a p/e of 13.0, but value is hard to come by and you really can't get anything with 100% fundamentals in place anymore. My holdings are, Lloyds Bank, Provident Financial,  Glaxo, GFP Infrastructure, Taylor Wimpey, Kier Group, Saga, Legal and General, Standard Life and Man Group, having switched to an individual stock based portfoio from a tracker becuase the valuations just look too high on most stuff.

Interestingly  the three  I am least happy about, Provident Financial (pay day lender/ sub-prime credit) Glaxo (debt and virtually zero book value) and Legal and General (the only one turning a negative PEG next year) are the three i have in common with Woodford. (three of his eight UK shares, just found that out this morning)

 

Edited by crashmonitor

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On 3/25/2017 at 9:44 AM, crashmonitor said:

Thought we were close to a correction at 7 45pm last night when the Obamacare repeal bill was about to fail, but then it was pulled for a second chance at the eleventh hour. It will be interesting to see what markets make of that on Monday morning once they have had time to digest the drama.

Fwiw this Trump bump can't go on and I think we might be in for a correction and a few grand spanking, But i don't feel inclined to offload what i have  in Equity with cash yielding just one percent just now. not least because most of  my money is still in cash and secondly in property.

At the moment I hold ten stocks  with projected yield at 5.4% with a p/e of 13.0, but value is hard to come by and you really can't get anything with 100% fundamentals in place anymore. My holdings are, Lloyds Bank, Provident Financial,  Glaxo, GFP Infrastructure, Taylor Wimpey, Kier Group, Saga, Legal and General, Standard Life and Man Group, having switched to an individual stock based portfoio from a tracker becuase the valuations just look too high on most stuff.

Interestingly  the three  I am least happy about, Provident Financial (pay day lender/ sub-prime credit) Glaxo (debt and virtually zero book value) and Legal and General (the only one turning a negative PEG next year) are the three i have in common with Woodford. (three of his eight UK shares, just found that out this morning)

 

Remember also that he is significantly overweight Pharma & still holds (I think) no oil/gas sector equities. Theres should be a full portfolio breakdown on his website, but from memory you may have to register. Of course, if you hold a similar portfolio yourself you won't be paying him 0.6% or whatever it is for his management charges & if you hold your equities outside of a SIPP then you won't be paying SIPP fees either (but I'm sure you're well aware of that :) )

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On ‎27‎/‎03‎/‎2017 at 6:37 PM, Little Frank said:

Remember also that he is significantly overweight Pharma & still holds (I think) no oil/gas sector equities. Theres should be a full portfolio breakdown on his website, but from memory you may have to register. Of course, if you hold a similar portfolio yourself you won't be paying him 0.6% or whatever it is for his management charges & if you hold your equities outside of a SIPP then you won't be paying SIPP fees either (but I'm sure you're well aware of that :) )

Woodford starts his High income UK fund at close of trading tomorrow at £1.00. Probably worth noting the portfolio value to compare performance.

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On 4/10/2017 at 9:37 AM, crashmonitor said:

Woodford starts his High income UK fund at close of trading tomorrow at £1.00. Probably worth noting the portfolio value to compare performance.

arguments against?

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Just interested really. Can't understand what has got into the FTSE350 this morning after a bad day yesterday for the S and P.

Surely not Woodford buying, no doubt the stocks would be in place in his new launch presumably with some sort of insurance swap to cover losses before trading.

 

 

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47 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

Just interested really. Can't understand what has got into the FTSE350 this morning after a bad day yesterday for the S and P.

Surely not Woodford buying, no doubt the stocks would be in place in his new launch presumably with some sort of insurance swap to cover losses before trading.

 

 

Up tick morning across the board. Europe too. Doubt Woodford goes all in on day 1 (or day 0-n)

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On 4/12/2017 at 8:26 AM, crashmonitor said:

Just interested really. Can't understand what has got into the FTSE350 this morning after a bad day yesterday for the S and P.

Surely not Woodford buying, no doubt the stocks would be in place in his new launch presumably with some sort of insurance swap to cover losses before trading.

 

 

fyi

https://woodfordfunds.com/words/blog/income-focus-fund-now-live/

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4 hours ago, Little Frank said:

Amazing he has managed to maintain the opening price in spite of the flash crash. One wonders if there is some smoothing involved unless that isn't allowed. Tbf if he has invested in high yield domestic stocks , they have barely been affected such as Taylor Wimpey, Saga, Legal and General etc. It's the resources like Randgold and Shell B that have tanked.

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