Automation And Jobs- Why It Really Is Different This Time.

[Economic Exile]

8 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Yeah on tablet.

http://m.slashdot.org/story/317409

The comparison was a bit of a scam. Getting a computer to analyse prose.

Bit like challenging a dolphin to the 100m race.

Imagine if the diagnosis was crunching gigabytes of numeric data and sensors?

Personally, I don't really understand gigabytes, numeric data, sensors etc. I just use the internet!

But, my personal experience of doctors/consultants and from what I've heard from others is that they're overall crap and now have become overpaid legal drug pushers and bureaucrats with no interest whatsoever in learning/thinking about what action may promote individuals to pursue lifestyles for optimal health. Furthermore, they're budget driven and deny people further investigations which lead to eventual death.

Gp's, IMO, are on the way out.....I may be wrong but time will tell. 

As I said to a local doctor several years ago....."What do you know, all your mistakes are dead and buried?" He laughed.....but I wasn't really joking!

[spyguy]

1 minute ago, Economic Exile said:

Personally, I don't really understand gigabytes, numeric data, sensors etc. I just use the internet!

But, my personal experience of doctors/consultants and from what I've heard from others is that they're overall crap and now have become overpaid legal drug pushers and bureaucrats with no interest whatsoever in learning/thinking about what action may promote individuals to pursue lifestyles for optimal health. Furthermore, they're budget driven and deny people further investigations which lead to eventual death.

Gp's, IMO, are on the way out.....I may be wrong but time will tell. 

As I said to a local doctor several years ago....."What do you know, all your mistakes are dead and buried?" He laughed.....but I wasn't really joking!

A GP drinks, gets tired, has bad days. Reads poor notes, comes up with a diagnosis.

Computers dont get tirred, have hangovers, fall out with gf. Once a computer starts nibbling around the ankkes of a skill then its time to find other employment.

Its been seen in accountancy.

Its happening in law.

 

[Economic Exile]

5 minutes ago, spyguy said:

A GP drinks, gets tired, has bad days. Reads poor notes, comes up with a diagnosis.

Computers dont get tirred, have hangovers, fall out with gf. Once a computer starts nibbling around the ankkes of a skill then its time to find other employment.

Its been seen in accountancy.

Its happening in law.

 

Yes, it's happening that AI is doing better in many areas.

Time will tell if that is overall a good or a not so good thing for humanity.

My hunch is that it is not so good for humanity but luckily I'm in the autumn years of life so not a big concern for me. However, I do fear my own children and other young people regarding the future. Sadly, I don't think it's going to be great for them.

 

[South Lorne]

41 minutes ago, Economic Exile said:

Personally, I don't really understand gigabytes, numeric data, sensors etc. I just use the internet!

But, my personal experience of doctors/consultants and from what I've heard from others is that they're overall crap and now have become overpaid legal drug pushers and bureaucrats with no interest whatsoever in learning/thinking about what action may promote individuals to pursue lifestyles for optimal health. Furthermore, they're budget driven and deny people further investigations which lead to eventual death.

Gp's, IMO, are on the way out.....I may be wrong but time will tell. 

As I said to a local doctor several years ago....."What do you know, all your mistakes are dead and buried?" He laughed.....but I wasn't really joking!

..I don't agree...found over the past three years on three different incidents involving myself (I rarely need to go to doctors and take no medication) both GPs and Consultants assumed worst case scenario and carried out tests accordingly...first class investigations and very efficient ...area East Cheshire...I accept it could be different in other areas....

[South Lorne]

1 hour ago, spyguy said:

I had 2-3 competent teachers at school.

The rest were winging it.

There are not thatmany good teachers.

.....they key is to be a learner ..and engage in continual self improvement ...don't rely wholly on others....

[Economic Exile]

9 minutes ago, South Lorne said:

..I don't agree...found over the past three years on three different incidents involving myself (I rarely need to go to doctors and take no medication) both GPs and Consultants assumed worst case scenario and carried out tests accordingly...first class investigations and very efficient ...area East Cheshire...I accept it could be different in other areas....

Yes, I do think it depends on your area. Unfortunately in Dumfries and Galloway they don't seem to be on the ball. My late mother ended up having a terrible long drawn out death in ICU after being misdiagnosed for months despite family members (2 nurses) pushing health services. Nephews father in law went to gp for over a year then eventually got diagnosed and dead within two weeks. I could go on with other examples but no point. Life is a lottery!

Edited March 10, 2017 by Economic Exile

[Funn3r]

12 hours ago, Economic Exile said:

Doctors have a 97% success rate regarding diagnosis? I do not believe that. Heard so many people relating their stories of weeks, months, years going to doctors/hospitals before getting a successful diagnosis. Several deceased people I knew endured this trekking to find out what was wrong....then finally got a diagnosis.....then in a few days, weeks or months they died.

 

Sorry for didn't explain very well, they do have 97% success in a very very narrow area, which is why the AI is being trialled. I don't think the objective is to correct the remaining 3% it is to automate the diagnosis completely thus freeing up the human for something else. Or to put the human out of a job whichever way you prefer to look at it. 

[the_duke_of_hazzard]

9 hours ago, South Lorne said:

.....they key is to be a learner ..and engage in continual self improvement ...don't rely wholly on others....

and a good teacher will teach you to do that.

[spyguy]

39 minutes ago, the_duke_of_hazzard said:

and a good teacher will teach you to do that.

I must have had very good teachers then .

I gave up on them and read the course books instead.

I do agree that having someone with knowledge of an area can point you in the right direction and stop you getting rat holed. But, in the big scheme of things, thats just some initial ground work and the odd check.

[wonderpup]

Quote

thus freeing up the human for something else. Or to put the human out of a job whichever way you prefer to look at it. 

Most advocates of AI prefer the 'freeing people up to do other things' meme- so much nicer than putting people out of work.

It's like when the boss say's 'I've got to let you go' instead of 'you're fired'- the outcome is the same but it's more suger coated.

To me there's a bit of a contradiction between the billions of R&D money pouring into AI at present and the claim that no humans will be harmed in the making of this investment- those shiny new AI's had better start delivering the productivity gains their builders are promising or there will be some very unhappy investors out there.

But one's mans improved productivity can often be another man's P45- that's what productivty means; getting the thing done with less human labour required to do it.

 

[wonderpup]

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A good teacher knows exactly where her students are.  I'm not convinced at all that a robot can better a human at this.  We are social animals.  Teaching and learning is a social process.  Yes, something simple and practical can be learnt from the Internet, instructions or video.  I do this a lot myself.  An example, today, my windows 10 computer failed yet again to communicate with my printer.  Easiest way to solve it was a google search and follow the instructions. 

However, if you want to really understand something complex, it needs someone else to help you.  This person will prod, probe and ask questions. You will be able to ask questions back.  You will laugh, smile and chuckle together when you get it right, or even wrong.  

I suppose the opposing argument to this would be the idea that unlike a human teacher an AI would have the capacity to create iterations of itself that precisely dovetailed with the strenghs and weaknesses of each individual student by analysing that individuals interactions with itself and the material.

Let me introduce exhibit A- my cocker spaniel. He is not very bright even for a dog, but what he is exceptionally good at is reading every nuance of my behavior in those matters that pertain directly to himself. For example on those rare and random occassions when I intend taking him into town to the vets I will first take him out on his usual walk for a short distance in order for him to 'do his business' in the woods before loading him into the car. Despite the fact that he has no obvious way to know in advance my intention to cut short his walk and put him in the car, he will-without fail- behave entirely differently on these occasions- walking close beside me instead of racing out in front as usual. In short he somehow knows that this is not a 'normal' morning walk and adjusts his behavior accordingly in anticipation of that walk being cut short.

 Despite the fact that I am behaving no differently to any other morning as far as I can tell, the dog is so accutely attuned to my behaviors that he is somehow picking up on some subtle behavioural cues on my part- something that I do on those rare occassions that I don't do the rest of the time is allowing him to anticipate that rare visit to the vets.

Where an AI might outperform a human tutor would be in it's ability to offer a similar degree of patient attention to the individual students progress and behavioral cues that no human teacher could possibly replicate because there would not usually be the time.

As with other applications of AI in the professions, the foot in the door could be this argument- that an AI based tutor could offer 'on the cheap' something that is currently only avialable to the privileged  few- in this case what's on offer is a degree of 'one to one' tuition and attention that most people can't afford to pay for.

Of course I make a lot of assumptions here regarding the ability to train AI's to recognise not just individual faces- which they can do now- but also interpret facial expressions and identify where a students attention might be focused re the material on screen ect. Is it too 'sci fi' to suggest that an AI based tutor could 'learn' to understand the individual student the way they currently learn other things?

It might not be that far fetched to imagine a system that could learn to indentify the behavioral cues that represent boredom, frustration or incomprehension on the part of their students, and adjust their own feedback accordingly. The great advantage such systems would have is the capacity for limitless patience and unflagging attentiveness to the needs of their pupils- and this might seem very attractive indeed if the alternative is a human teacher in an overpopulated and under resourced classroom where both patience and individual attention might be in short supply.

[winkie]

Nobody needs fancy jobs, fancy stuff at exorobinate prices..... nobody needs fancy homes at fancy prices....The best things in life are free, like people, like love, family, honesty, like fresh air, good food, community, peace, security and hope.......Things money will not buy and will never buy.....Never judge a book by it's cover, that thinks just because may have money and may have power and so called influence today.... Influence without money, without power is true and authentic influence....So why ask yourself do people say the things that they say...?

[nothernsoul]

The job of a teacher within a school can be split into two functions, teaching of knowledge and childcare. Within industrialised societies we have decided it is more economically efficient to hive off childcare to the state so both parents can work. A newly qualified teacher on 24 thousand a year, teaching a class of thirty primary school children, works out at £4:10 a day per child a day over a school year. A more experienced teacher works out just over a fiver. Even if that individual did nothing except ensure the safety of children each day that would be considered reasonable value. If only half of those children had both parents economically productive that would easily be a net economic gain. Considering that the teacher has to plan and deliver daily lessons to ensure academic progress as well I would consider that good value for money.

Even if technology could takeover the learning function of a teacher, I doubt it could manage the childcare function. I cant see how a machine can break up a fight, stop an argument, clean up vomit, remove a disruptive child from the group,comfort somebody crying, motivate with praise, encourage a reluctant individual to work. 

Unfortunately within our society, caring for children or the elderly, probably because it has traditionally been performed by women, is very poorly renumerated, however well it is done. If artificial intelligence is introduced it wont be to replace a human being; it will be to deskill a human being. You would still need to have a person to oversea the children, even secondary school children. Its just the extra income, pension benefits they would have received from the formally recognised teaching part of their job, would instead be extracted by the those that owned and managed the artificial intelligence.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[nothernsoul]

Another thing artificial intelligence can never do is accept responsibility for its actions. If you were the individual who used to be a respected maths teacher; who is now minimum wage overseer of the learners in the " artificial intelligence maths suite", you will still be responsible for the outcomes of the pupils. The headteacher and the childs parents can hardly come in and scream at the computer when johnny fails his GCSE.

[wonderpup]

Quote

Unfortunately within our society, caring for children or the elderly, probably because it has traditionally been performed by women, is very poorly renumerated, however well it is done. If artificial intelligence is introduced it wont be to replace a human being; it will be to deskill a human being. You would still need to have a person to oversea the children, even secondary school children. Its just the extra income, pension benefits they would have received from the formally recognised teaching part of their job, would instead be extracted by the those that owned and managed the artificial intelligence.

Good points. I would generalise this to include anyone who is deskilled by an AI. This is why instead of the benefits of technology being widely shared in the future we are likely to see the opposite- a concentration of wealth among the owners and controllers of technology while those whose economic value has been eroded or eliminated by that technology will be marginalised and made poor.

I also think that some of those promoting AI recognise this trend, which is why they are suddenly becoming more vocal as to the social benefits of their technology- the possibility of a real backlash against AI is at present remote- but that could change quite quickly I feel.

The image of the future might not be a flying car but a burning car -equipped with self drive capability- torched by some irate former Uber driver whose last fingerhold on paid employment has been automated out of existence.

[spyguy]

23 minutes ago, nothernsoul said:

Another thing artificial intelligence can never do is accept responsibility for its actions. If you were the individual who used to be a respected maths teacher; who is now minimum wage overseer of the learners in the " artificial intelligence maths suite", you will still be responsible for the outcomes of the pupils. The headteacher and the childs parents can hardly come in and scream at the computer when johnny fails his GCSE.

You never met my gcse teachers.

[steve99]

On 11/03/2017 at 9:14 AM, spyguy said:

I had 2-3 competent teachers at school.

The rest were winging it.

There are not thatmany good teachers.

When and where I went to school we had zero competent teachers.  If you were popular with them you passed and if not they almost all used the cane or strap to reinforce their domination.  This was training for us to be obedient and not ask questions, just do as we are told, it will be all you need in a factory prison... Have learned infinitely more from books and then the internet.  Back at school we had one teacher and one text book for each subject with no outside resources.  things are so much better today where you can survive a stupid teacher and still do really well with the infinite world we can connect to.

In the past we had either skills which demanded employer/customer respect and hence wages or we worked in collectives called unions.   Unions have gone, jobs offshored, AI and robots will take care of many of the skilled workers so it is about time we got a citizens wage. We will need it.

[winkie]

On 10/03/2017 at 7:04 AM, the_duke_of_hazzard said:

My wife's a psychotherapist - I imagine she's pretty safe. Only thing safer I can think of is hooker

There are dozens of self-help books out there, there are plenty of people out there with the natural skills required, listening skills......Being there.

As more jobs are automated, more people will have more time and less money......So learning to do more things yourself and sharing society.......Growing, cooking, caring,sharing transport, heat, recycling, repairing......Best things in life are free anyway.

[sleepwello'nights]

On ‎10‎/‎03‎/‎2017 at 9:33 PM, Economic Exile said:

I agree. FFS, I can do better myself in comparison to the medical "profession" on the internet regarding an ailment and possible solution to a health problem. 

I know. It's a wonder I'm still alive, what with all the conditions I'm suffering from. Doctors have never correctly diagnosed a single one of all those life threatening conditions that a quick google throws up I'm suffering from or about to succumb to, and then...........................................................................................................................

[winkie]

40 minutes ago, steve99 said:

When and where I went to school we had zero competent teachers.  If you were popular with them you passed and if not they almost all used the cane or strap to reinforce their domination.  This was training for us to be obedient and not ask questions, just do as we are told, it will be all you need in a factory prison... Have learned infinitely more from books and then the internet.  Back at school we had one teacher and one text book for each subject with no outside resources.  things are so much better today where you can survive a stupid teacher and still do really well with the infinite world we can connect to.

In the past we had either skills which demanded employer/customer respect and hence wages or we worked in collectives called unions.   Unions have gone, jobs offshored, AI and robots will take care of many of the skilled workers so it is about time we got a citizens wage. We will need it.

The school I went to didn't teach much......Never did any Shakespeare, learned nothing much of any importance, everything  learned had been learned since being pushed through the system and dropped out the other end......Learned more in the school holidays if being honest.

[spyguy]

5 minutes ago, winkie said:

The school I went to didn't teach much......Never did any Shakespeare, learned nothing much of any importance, everything  learned had been learned since being pushed through the system and dropped out the other end......Learned more in the school holidays if being honest.

My lightbulb moment was when we were set homework.

I found that the looking up the stuff in the course + reference books had more useful info than the teachers. Most teachers were winging it, making up the lesson as they went along. There used be 5 minutes at the start of every lesson where theyd start a topic, be told theyd already done, then choose another. Really really sloppy and bad.

[doahh]

18 hours ago, nothernsoul said:

Even if technology could takeover the learning function of a teacher, I doubt it could manage the childcare function. I cant see how a machine can break up a fight, stop an argument, clean up vomit, remove a disruptive child from the group,comfort somebody crying, motivate with praise, encourage a reluctant individual to work.

I guess this is where sentient AI would eventually become a tool that would be deployed. However, we would have to ensure that the AI was created in such a way that it wanted to do this job that humans either don't want or can't afford to do. At this point we are creating a race of slaves to do our work for us. I wonder who thinks that is a good idea?

[stuckmojo]

Technically, the more of the process you automate - any process - the more you align with a trajectory where the end game is zero cost for the product or service.

At that point, one won't need a wage to acquire the product/service

Extended to everything, there will be no need for money/currency etc. 

Except, those in control and in possession of land/money etc will make sure that the poor stay harmless and poor (hopefully at least safe and healthy).

 

 

 

[winkie]

Homework what was that?......It was optional, not done it not a problem.....Recon most of us were already written off the day we started......anything showed any interest in was ignored or rebuffed...... go with the programme or opt out.

[the_duke_of_hazzard]

1 hour ago, winkie said:

There are dozens of self-help books out there, there are plenty of people out there with the natural skills required, listening skills......Being there.

That's true now.

The skills required to be a good psychotherapist are _harder_ than the skills required to emulate human behaviour.

Edited March 12, 2017 by the_duke_of_hazzard