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rantnrave

Halifax - House Price Growth Approaching Warp Speed

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Here is the link to the full report

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/globalassets/documents/media/press-releases/halifax/2015/housepriceindexoctober2015.pdf

Here are some gems from it (my bold)

House price optimism (HPO*) remains high (+63 in Q3 from +64 in Q2). Over two-thirds (68%) of Britons expect average property prices to be higher in 12 months’ time with just 5% expecting it to be lower, according to the latest quarterly Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker.

(Interesting that Halifax chooses the HMRC data over the LR data) Home sales increased again in September. UK home sales increased by 1% between August and September, to 106,030. This was the second successive monthly rise. Sales in the three months to September were 4.4% higher than in the preceding three months. (Source: HMRC, seasonally adjusted figures)

Mortgage approvals on an upward trend despite falling in September. The volume of mortgage approvals for house purchases – a leading indicator of completed house sales – increased by 4% between Quarter 2 and Quarter 3 despite a 2.5% decline in September. Approvals in the three months to September were 10% higher than in the same three months last year. (Source: Bank of England, seasonally-adjusted figures)

Supply remains at a record low. New instructions by home sellers declined in September for the eighth successive month. This contributed to the stock of homes available for sale remaining at record low levels. (Source: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ (RICS) monthly report)

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Got to admit I have for the first time noticed an uplift in prices in the Midlands and indeed we are probably experiencing a new peak, possibly 10k or so above the 2005 peak here.

Warp speed has to be put into some kind of context. This is what has happened to house prices over the last 50 years in my area (detached houses in a good area).....

1965....3k

1975...9k

1985..27k

1995..81k

2005..240k

2015..250k

So warp speed in context is a fall in real terms after a tripling in every previous decade. Anybody argue with that trajectory in the north...thought not.

Not trying to make a point, just saying what has happened. Indeed they are still too high which is why most of my money is in cash and indeed northern renters have done very well these last ten years by not having dead money in houses.

Edited by crashmonitor

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Supply remains at a record low. New instructions by home sellers declined in September for the eighth successive month. This contributed to the stock of homes available for sale remaining at record low levels. (Source: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ (RICS) monthly report)

Obviously.

Rising prices prevent people moving to more expensive property and encourage multiple owners to keep hold of existing houses.

As my wife will tell you nothing annoys me more than some first time buyer on TV saying they hope the price of their studio flat goes up in value as then they'll be able to buy a bigger house soon.

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Something's got to give, its just a matter of when.

First rule of life, NOTHING lasts forever......

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Something's got to give, its just a matter of when.

First rule of life, NOTHING lasts forever......

I've always thought house prices were ridiculous even when I first bought a house for 18k in 1985 (obviously they weren't) and been a lifelong Bear except in 1996 under John Major when they did seem bloody cheap. Of course, something did give between 2007-2012 whence house prices on the Halifax measure fell 35% in real terms, just wasn't enough to make them affordable.

Edited by crashmonitor

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so we are 'back' to 2007 + a bit - are the figures skewed by 'that London' and the SE lunacy?

where I live - the overpriced houses are not selling :o

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Even the most fervent of property gladsayers would have to accept that annual increases of house prices that are 3.4x faster than annual wage increases can't carry on indefinitely.

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Rising prices prevent people moving to more expensive property and encourage multiple owners to keep hold of existing houses.

Anecdotally, this really seems to have become a "thing" on my area. If and when people move (even oldies), the old house isn't put on the market, it is rented out instead. I guess if do want to get into BTL (and a lot of people seem to), then you can shave a serious chunk off your costs (stamp duty, EA fees) by simply keeping all of your old properties. I definitely think it is a big driver of reduced supply - and round my way in W.Sussex there is very, very little in the way of decent houses coming on the market.

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Reading most of the threads on here today I have just had a little De ja vu to 2007....

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It's the lack of supply that is still a bit of a conundrum for me... I keep hearing that the lack of supply is due to people no longer being able to afford to move up the ''ladder'', yet in my area (North West) prices have been pretty much stagnant for a good few years but the supply has still dropped drastically this year here even though prices haven't increased very much.

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Anecdotally, this really seems to have become a "thing" on my area. If and when people move (even oldies), the old house isn't put on the market, it is rented out instead. I guess if do want to get into BTL (and a lot of people seem to), then you can shave a serious chunk off your costs (stamp duty, EA fees) by simply keeping all of your old properties. I definitely think it is a big driver of reduced supply - and round my way in W.Sussex there is very, very little in the way of decent houses coming on the market.

that hasn't madd financial sense since 2000

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how long can this go on for!!!!

IMO as long as rates stay low, which unfortunately could be a very long time. Can't see a proper crash without distressed sellers, can't see too many of them with current rates.

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Even the most fervent of property gladsayers would have to accept that annual increases of house prices that are 3.4x faster than annual wage increases can't carry on indefinitely.

I don't think it can but I can easily find people who do and that it is a good thing. If you can't where do you work Mensa? Nasa rocket science development?

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Anecdotally, this really seems to have become a "thing" on my area. If and when people move (even oldies), the old house isn't put on the market, it is rented out instead. I guess if do want to get into BTL (and a lot of people seem to), then you can shave a serious chunk off your costs (stamp duty, EA fees) by simply keeping all of your old properties. I definitely think it is a big driver of reduced supply - and round my way in W.Sussex there is very, very little in the way of decent houses coming on the market.

That's the way. Then they run around telling everyone that they're an "accidental" landlord, so they can act all hurt and upset when people diss LL, and make the earth shattering argument that not all landlords are bad because they're actually very nice to their tenants.

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