Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
cool_hand

Uk Population 'to Top 70 Million In 12 Years'

Recommended Posts

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34666382

The UK population is to increase beyond 70 million in the next 12 years, official projections suggest.

The Office for National Statistics said the population was expected to increase by 4.4 million in the next decade, before reaching 70 million in 2027.

That increase is roughly the size of the Irish Republic.

The statistics predict an ageing population, with some 29.5% of people aged over 60 by 2039 - up from 23.2% this year.

By then, more than one in 12 UK people are expected to be aged 80 or over.

The latest official figures say there are just under 64.6 million people in the UK. The population is projected to grow by 9.7 million over the next 25 years, to 74.3 million.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said its latest projections assume that more people will come to live in the UK than emigrate, accounting for about half of the projected population increase.

The remainder is attributed to births outnumbering deaths.

Projections were also revised upwards in the latest figures. The population estimate for 2024 is now 249,000 more than the previous projection in 2012.

The overall trend is "very similar" to past figures, said Prof Christian Dustmann, director of the Centre for Research and Analysis on Migration at University College London.

"What we see in many European countries, in particular the larger economies such as Germany, is actually a trend in the opposite direction," he said.

"Population is decreasing in Germany, as it is in Italy or Spain. That puts these countries in a very difficult situation.

"[When] populations are decreasing, you're dealing with a shrinking working-age population, which basically has to be confronted with an increasing ageing population which is not productive any more."

In the UK, where migration is contributing to population growth, the challenge was to ensure immigrants paid more in taxes than they cost in public services, he said.

"An increase in population means a larger economic base - part of the GDP growth we have seen is due to immigration," he said.

Prof Dustmann said one reason the ONS produces these figures is to prepare policy makers for "future demands" - and he said they should "clearly be prepared to expand public services".

Is there anyway we can still have a house price crash?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Half the families with children in London are on tax credits. EU migrants from Eastern Europe make about 50% less than native workers. The only way people can afford current prices is by the government giving them (or rather, their landlords) massive subsidies. House prices will definitely crash when the UK runs out of money, and mass immigration is only going to hasten that moment.

By the way, nice of the BBC to present someone on the EU payroll (Dustmann) as an impartial expert in all of this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Half the families with children in London are on tax credits. EU migrants from Eastern Europe make about 50% less than native workers. The only way people can afford current prices is by the government giving them (or rather, their landlords) massive subsidies. House prices will definitely crash when the UK runs out of money, and mass immigration is only going to hasten that moment.

By the way, nice of the BBC to present someone on the EU payroll (Dustmann) as an impartial expert in all of this.

The ONS projection is little more than "what happens if the trends of the past continue into the future'.

My prediction is that by 2025 there will be a massive change in the UK economy, started by a run on the pound (provoked by that obvious-in-hindsight but all too invisible to us now event) and thus more lucrative lifestyles being affordable overseas. There will be massive demigration to the old soviet states and back into the now safe and growing middle eastern states and back into Africa. The economic problems will even result in emigration of whatever we call multigenerational British these days, back to an old 'auf wiedersehen pet' type economy. This will cause even more problems for the economy, as the only people who will be definitely hanging around will be the boomers who will be determined to take advantage of their free healthcare (and bus passes), even if it is falling apart because of lack of younger people to do all the work. Estimated population in 2025 - a drop of 10% over 2015, plus a little more because many of the people demigrating will be the ones who have been building up families in the UK over the last few years - so about 55 million.

Of course, all this is made up nonsense - but it is just as valid as the pretty much linear regression (tarted up with some post-hoc rationalisation) provided by the ONS.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I heard 51% of the growth will be immigration. So more immigrants than British babies being born. Maybe we will all live happily in multi cultural Britain. However if we don't there is no way of reversing it. A very dangerous experiment with no up sides if it works and lots of down sides if it doesn't.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well depression equals falling populations .

USA 1921/22 population rising at 2 million.

1.5 million per year in 1925/26.

750,000 during the peak years of depression (1933/34)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anybody of working age will just go to Germany for better work, more pay and cheaper housing.

Whilst all ethnic Germans seeing the toilet their Country is descending into will use their freedom of movement card to move to the UK.

As an Island nation we are insulated from the huge demographic changes occurring on the Continent. The Government learned the lessons quite early with those few hundred Libyan young males imported into Bassingbourn who went on a rape rampage in Cambridge.

They are hopefully not so keen to throw open the doors to all and sundry..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-32687137

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-32749555

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-32781117

All this from an intake of 300 of them.....

Trouble was so bad one of the Scottish Battalions were brought down to secure the camp and keep them in under armed guard. A few days later the ones not held under charge were promptly kicked out back to Libya...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Come on.....any Tory would sell his daughter for a few quid.

And Labour scum will sell out their entire country for even less.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I heard 51% of the growth will be immigration. So more immigrants than British babies being born. Maybe we will all live happily in multi cultural Britain. However if we don't there is no way of reversing it. A very dangerous experiment with no up sides if it works and lots of down sides if it doesn't.

Time for the hypothetical elephant in the room.

Presently EU migrants make-up around 1/3 to 1/2 of the immigration figure. Plenty of people would like to see that figure drop by the UK leaving the EU. If that happens and the EU migrant tap is turned off that'll mean the vast majority of migrants will be non-European. Many of the 1+million EU nationals living here will leave so the proportion of the population from non-European cultures will increase.

The Tories are desperate to get the vote of certain more conservative cultures and Labour will be desperate to cling onto their vote - they make up >4% of the population so can make or break an election campaign. Get rid of a lot of the EU nationals and suddenly those cultures could make up >5% and are even more important.

Bit of a bind that...

Or be careful what you wish for, you might get it...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They don't know the true figures, but apparently they can tell by the volume of excrement... A guy in the know on the radio said the Victorian sewers are collapsing more often and on a regular basis, perhaps they can't take any more.

Edited by winkie

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ONS has a cool app: UK Population Pyramid

Using that website's numbers the UK will see a 25% increase in population over 57 years....

Or about +0.5% per year.

Based on trends over a similar time scale America will have perhaps a 75% (+1.4% YOY) increase, China perhaps 200% (+3.8% YOY) , and India 278% (+5.2%).

So it's hardly a point of concern, is it?

Edited by cashinmattress

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ONS projection is little more than "what happens if the trends of the past continue into the future'.

My prediction is that by 2025 there will be a massive change in the UK economy, started by a run on the pound (provoked by that obvious-in-hindsight but all too invisible to us now event) and thus more lucrative lifestyles being affordable overseas. There will be massive demigration to the old soviet states and back into the now safe and growing middle eastern states and back into Africa. The economic problems will even result in emigration of whatever we call multigenerational British these days, back to an old 'auf wiedersehen pet' type economy. This will cause even more problems for the economy, as the only people who will be definitely hanging around will be the boomers who will be determined to take advantage of their free healthcare (and bus passes), even if it is falling apart because of lack of younger people to do all the work. Estimated population in 2025 - a drop of 10% over 2015, plus a little more because many of the people demigrating will be the ones who have been building up families in the UK over the last few years - so about 55 million.

Of course, all this is made up nonsense - but it is just as valid as the pretty much linear regression (tarted up with some post-hoc rationalisation) provided by the ONS.

+1. Totally possible!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well depression equals falling populations .

USA 1921/22 population rising at 2 million.

1.5 million per year in 1925/26.

750,000 during the peak years of depression (1933/34)

The US did begin to enact much tighter border controls at that time...at the time not primarily to stop people, but rather to stop the importation of booze from Mexico during prohibition...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ONS projection is little more than "what happens if the trends of the past continue into the future'.

My prediction is that by 2025 there will be a massive change in the UK economy, started by a run on the pound (provoked by that obvious-in-hindsight but all too invisible to us now event) and thus more lucrative lifestyles being affordable overseas. There will be massive demigration to the old soviet states and back into the now safe and growing middle eastern states and back into Africa. The economic problems will even result in emigration of whatever we call multigenerational British these days, back to an old 'auf wiedersehen pet' type economy. This will cause even more problems for the economy, as the only people who will be definitely hanging around will be the boomers who will be determined to take advantage of their free healthcare (and bus passes), even if it is falling apart because of lack of younger people to do all the work. Estimated population in 2025 - a drop of 10% over 2015, plus a little more because many of the people demigrating will be the ones who have been building up families in the UK over the last few years - so about 55 million.

Of course, all this is made up nonsense - but it is just as valid as the pretty much linear regression (tarted up with some post-hoc rationalisation) provided by the ONS.

I think its different where migration is concerned, but with Birth rates, I think you are right. The government really has no clue, it just pretends it does.

For example, one thing that has amazed me is Enoch Powell's ability to predict the population figure of the year 2000 with almost perfect accuracy in 1969. The army of government statisticians predicted an overall population of 75 million in 2000, with a non-white population of 5-7 million, presumably based on extrapolating out Baby boom birth rates of the 60s and very little else. Powell on the other hand, despite everyone saying he was some crazed alarmist, projected a smaller non-white population of 4.5 million in 2000 due to a lower overall population. The actual figure, enumerated by the census 1 year later was 4.635millon. His one year previous estimate was basically exactly correct.

Of course, Frost and his audience mocked him, probably believing the alarmists of the time (guess they didnt have global warming to bleat about then) that Britain would have 100 million plus people by 2000...

21:50 to 24:00

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Whilst all ethnic Germans seeing the toilet their Country is descending into will use their freedom of movement card to move to the UK.

As an Island nation we are insulated from the huge demographic changes occurring on the Continent. The Government learned the lessons quite early with those few hundred Libyan young males imported into Bassingbourn who went on a rape rampage in Cambridge.

They are hopefully not so keen to throw open the doors to all and sundry..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-32687137

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-32749555

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-32781117

All this from an intake of 300 of them.....

Trouble was so bad one of the Scottish Battalions were brought down to secure the camp and keep them in under armed guard. A few days later the ones not held under charge were promptly kicked out back to Libya...

300 of them who are supposed to be disciplined and trained to protect. If the authorities behave like this, imagine what the rest are like.

I remember it because the local bleeding hearts were outraged some people raised concern's prior to the troops arrival...

This before they began their crimewave...

http://www.royston-crow.co.uk/royston-life/opinion_libyan_soldiers_at_bassingbourn_barracks_need_humility_not_prejudice_1_3750231

Nope, he didn't issue an apology to all those he called bigots and so forth.

Its not just libyan troops either. Some shocking stories about how american soldiers are told to turn a blind eye to the rape of children in Afghanistan.

If the military can admit child abuse is their culture to each other, why can't they admit it to the public. Maybe we wouldnt have all these Rotherhams if they did.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3205551/Decorated-Green-Beret-kicked-U-S-Special-Forces-shoving-Afghan-police-officer-raped-boy-12-beat-mother-reported-crime.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/21/world/asia/us-soldiers-told-to-ignore-afghan-allies-abuse-of-boys.html?_r=0

Rampant sexual abuse of children has long been a problem in Afghanistan,particularly among armed commanders who dominate much of the rural landscape and can bully the population. The practice is called bacha bazi, literally “boy play,” and American soldiers and Marines have been instructed not to intervene

There is a conspiracy of silence. Our population is kept vunerable and in the dark for no reason other than political expediency. But all cultures are equal, right...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ONS projection is little more than "what happens if the trends of the past continue into the future'.

Apparently they have a history of getting it wrong. According to the radio yesterday, in the 30s they predicted a fall in population because there was a low birth rate at the time of the prediction.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"An increase in population means a larger economic base - part of the GDP growth we have seen is due to immigration," he said.

An increase in population just means an increase in population but it gives a half baked reason and a half baked method to issue more debt. Does the UK actually need more manual car washes etc etc etc etc.

The GDP has grown but over time the GDP per Capita has tended to decrease relative to other countries reflecting the declining relative prosperity of the UK.

Edited by billybong

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Presuming continued economic and social stability, can we support 75m (or even 300m) people?

Yes, of course.

Would the UK be a better place to live ? I would argue not.

Given builders have already explained the reason for missing house building targets as being down to the availability of land, will we actually be able to build the infrastructure required for the planned increases?

The problem is the issue is entirely subjective. I know a lot of people will argue 75 million or more people in the UK will be a good thing and they would love more people. I'd say the ideal population for me would be about 40-50m tops. Even less if we wanted to really "green" about it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   72 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.