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pipllman

Hoisington Management Q3 Review & Outlook

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I like the Hoisington analysis. Q3 edition is out now and it is a nice read

It is US specific, but you will see parallels with Europe and the UK I am sure

http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/pdf/HIM2015Q3NP.pdf

My Highlights (but I really would encourage you to read the 6 pager)

Future business activity will reflect two economic realities: 1) the over-indebted state of the U.S. economy and the world; and 2) the inability of the Federal Reserve to initiate policies to promote growth in this environment

The Fed’s zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) and quantitative easing (QE) have been ineffectual, if not a net negative, for the economy’s growth path.

The current zero interest rate policy has rendered mass distortions in the allocation of capital and mispricing of risk assets. Such repressed interest rates have contributed to more excess capacity that, in turn, has reduced inflation. The ZIRP policy allows low quality borrowers access to debt markets, creating untenable balance sheet exposure when economic activity slows

These new proposals all have serious flaws and will do nothing to ameliorate the over-indebtedness of the nation or address the structural problems of future claims on our federal and state budget revenues. History suggests that such a condition engenders a long period of low inflation and thus low long-term interest rates.

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Interesting thanks.

Not sure you can conclude the conclusions drawn from this paper are good for property.

Property would benefit from duration effect of low interest rates but suffer from the economic stagnation low interest rates would imply.

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Interesting thanks.

Not sure you can conclude the conclusions drawn from this paper are good for property.

Property would benefit from duration effect of low interest rates but suffer from the economic stagnation low interest rates would imply.

I didn't conclude that the conclusions drawn from this paper are good for property

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