Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
TheCountOfNowhere

Have The Tories Messed Up Big Time With Their Mega Bubble ?

Recommended Posts

not a day goes by without talk of a housing crisis.

their debt/spending/false austerity is there for all to see.

they are attacking the NHS now after selling off the post office.

interest rates still low. no real recovery.

food banks becoming more used.

corbyn suddenly makes labour look like our saviours.

I would imagine the twenty somethings in the UK are pretty angry right now.

have the tories screwed themselves with their insane London mega bubble?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

unless and until they see it that way, they are likely to just keep throwing more of the same it to try to 'fix' the problem as they say they interpret it

more taxpayers money is one thing they have to throw

future taxpayers money is another

BIG QE

I hope it isn't, but I sort of think it is coming

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

unless and until they see it that way, they are likely to just keep throwing more of the same it to try to 'fix' the problem as they say they interpret it

more taxpayers money is one thing they have to throw

future taxpayers money is another

BIG QE

I hope it isn't, but I sort of think it is coming

more q.e will just push up prices again, people already can't afford to eat and say bills.

more money printing is big trouble if you ask me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If talking numbers there are more, and the number is growing that haven't benefited from rising property prices.....and in a democracy numbers count, the young are reaching voting age fast, and the parents of the young see the hopeless predicament they are in, something they themselves didn't have to live with...most average jobs with a bit of savings bought a first place often a flat in London not that long ago,when a ladder existed.

A bubble is a negative for most home buyers and owners, but can they see that, if not they should open their eyes.......the capital to repay now has become so large it will take a lifetime of work or more to repay even on the first step of this broken ladder. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

more q.e will just push up prices again, people already can't afford to eat and say bills.

more money printing is big trouble if you ask me.

I agree

But I am not Osborne, Gauke or Carney

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

more q.e will just push up prices again, people already can't afford to eat and say pay bills.

more money printing is big trouble if you ask me.

This, ultimately, is why prices have to fall. Osborne's insane efforts to inflate away the debt via deficit spending and house price subsidies have succeeded only in driving up the cost of living and making the housing crisis even more acute.

It's as if having taken note of how unaffordable houses and rents had become, Osborne set out deliberately to make everything else as expensive.

And yet the system still has to deleverage! To effect a sustainable recovery asset prices and current prices have be brought back into balance. Forget CPI, any measure of inflation that doesn't include housing costs is irrelevant. Current prices have been pushed much too far already - the economy is teetering on the edge of recession again - asset prices must now come down, and come down hard.

Edited by zugzwang

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This, ultimately, is why prices have to fall. Osborne's insane efforts to inflate away the debt via deficit spending and house price subsidies have succeeded only in driving up the cost of living and making the housing crisis even more acute.

It's as if having taken note of how unaffordable houses and rents had become, Osborne set out deliberately to make everything else as expensive.

And yet the system still has to deleverage! To effect a sustainable recovery asset prices and current prices have be brought back into balance. Forget CPI, any measure of inflation that doesn't include housing costs is irrelevant. Current prices have been pushed much too far already - the economy is teetering on the edge of recession again - asset prices must now come down, and come down hard.

Osbanker must be pleased with himself about that?

The more it costs people to live the more hours they have to work to survive. The more hours they work the more taxes they pay. Has there ever been more people in employment before? There seems to be plenty of couples rushing to sign up to joint income mortgages at ever increasing lending multiples, over ever increasing lengths of mortgage terms, to live the hamster on a wheel dream servicing ever increasing debt.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All they can do is wait for HPC, and what a HPC it might be. Relax for a while and enjoy. Look at the astonishment of the BTLers. Their whole identity and world-view is breaking down.

Banks are so much better positioned for it (HPC).

The property VI fell for it - took the bait, entered the run and followed it to be torn apart near the high stand, storms of splinters before the fire.

If there is any QE it will only go to supporting bank positions imo.

Three Truths for Finance - speech by Mark Carney

Remarks given at the Harvard Club UK Southwark Cathedral dinner, London.
21 September 2015


[...]Moreover, when next time proves no different, the financial intermediaries at the core of the system will be on a substantially stronger footing. Their capital requirements have already increased ten-fold and their liquid assets are up four-fold. Their trading assets are down by a third and intra-bank exposures by two-thirds.

http://www.bankofeng...s/2015/843.aspx

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All they can do is wait for HPC, and what a HPC it might be. Relax for a while and enjoy. Look at the astonishment of the BTLers. Their whole identity and world-view is breaking down.

Banks are so much better positioned for it (HPC).

The property VI fell for it - took the bait, entered the run and followed it to be torn apart near the high stand, storms of splinters before the fire.

If there is any QE it will only go to supporting bank positions imo.

No doubt about that

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

not a day goes by without talk of a housing crisis.

their debt/spending/false austerity is there for all to see.

they are attacking the NHS now after selling off the post office.

interest rates still low. no real recovery.

food banks becoming more used.

corbyn suddenly makes labour look like our saviours.

I would imagine the twenty somethings in the UK are pretty angry right now.

have the tories screwed themselves with their insane London mega bubble?

I want you to go to get up and open your window

and stick your head out and yell

"I'm as mad as hell and I'm not gonna take anymore"

Right after X-factor has finished, of course.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I want you to go to get up and open your window

and stick your head out and yell

"I'm as mad as hell and I'm not gonna take anymore"

Right after X-factor has finished, of course.

Its not fair on his new French neighbours to subject them to him shouting about UK house prices!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree

But I am not Osborne, Gauke or Carney

I am not a royalist by any stretch of the imagination, but I come back to the point that the QE stopped when the Queen went to visit the BoE. Coincidence maybe, but I dont believe in coincidence.

Her family is very clever at preserving their place in society, reading the drivel some of the media outlets prints on their behalf should tell you that.

Does the Queen want social unrest in one of the few countries with a population still stupid enough to accept a ruling elite who's only qualification is their blood line ?

TBH though, I dont think the QE has realy stopped.

Where has this magic money to lend to people at insane prices in London come from exactly!!!

We might see the social unrest regardless.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Its not fair on his new French neighbours to subject them to him shouting about UK house prices!

They're all English I suspect. They probably left to get away from the stupidity too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This, ultimately, is why prices have to fall. Osborne's insane efforts to inflate away the debt via deficit spending and house price subsidies have succeeded only in driving up the cost of living and making the housing crisis even more acute.

It's as if having taken note of how unaffordable houses and rents had become, Osborne set out deliberately to make everything else as expensive.

And yet the system still has to deleverage! To effect a sustainable recovery asset prices and current prices have be brought back into balance. Forget CPI, any measure of inflation that doesn't include housing costs is irrelevant. Current prices have been pushed much too far already - the economy is teetering on the edge of recession again - asset prices must now come down, and come down hard.

That's exactly what I am trying to say.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This, ultimately, is why prices have to fall. Osborne's insane efforts to inflate away the debt via deficit spending and house price subsidies have succeeded only in driving up the cost of living and making the housing crisis even more acute.

It's as if having taken note of how unaffordable houses and rents had become, Osborne set out deliberately to make everything else as expensive.

And yet the system still has to deleverage! To effect a sustainable recovery asset prices and current prices have be brought back into balance. Forget CPI, any measure of inflation that doesn't include housing costs is irrelevant. Current prices have been pushed much too far already - the economy is teetering on the edge of recession again - asset prices must now come down, and come down hard.

PLEASE please....but When..?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

more q.e will just push up prices again

Not if QE goes to the people or projects that will spend in sectors with lots of slack.

Poor people will spend money on the high street in places like Lidl or Aldi, pubs or clearing down payday loans and rent arrears. None of which is inflationary at the present time. Projects are a bit more of a challenge because of lost skills, worst in the world productivity, loss of home grown raw material production etc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If talking numbers there are more, and the number is growing that haven't benefited from rising property prices.....and in a democracy numbers count, the young are reaching voting age fast, and the parents of the young see the hopeless predicament they are in, something they themselves didn't have to live with...most average jobs with a bit of savings bought a first place often a flat in London not that long ago,when a ladder existed.

A bubble is a negative for most home buyers and owners, but can they see that, if not they should open their eyes.......the capital to repay now has become so large it will take a lifetime of work or more to repay even on the first step of this broken ladder. ;)

I'm pretty sure Osborne knows this. Trouble is he's between a rock and a hard place, he knows that on one hand something HAS to be done about housing otherwise the Tories stand no chance of winning the 2025 (or maybe even 2020) elections, but he knows if there's a proper HPC they stand no chance of winning in 2020 as the Tories will have been seen to have "screwed-up the economy" (and he won't become PM). I think he's trying to stop HPI without crashing prices with the anti-BTL stuff, he probably sees that small 1-2% decreases will tolerated in the name of getting people on the "ladder", he sees that the 10,20,30% decreases won't be tolerated so must be avoided.

Overall I think Camoron has messed-up big time, he seems to be the HTB and HPI fan, and in doing so the Tories have messed-up as well. Camoron is not a strategist whereas Osborne is, Camoron probably had a spontaneous emission when the HTB ISA was announced as it means more HPI, Osborne hopes it'll take buyers out of the market for a few years to try and cool things off.

The Autumn statement will reveal all I think.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The whole economy is entirely built around HPC. The Tories will fight tooth and nail to keep the status quo, whilst drip feeding lies and false promises to younger people, to look like that they "care" and give a monkeys about them.

Can't really see a cataclysmic event happening either...

Edited by Dave Beans

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Who votes, who wants HPI? No party wants prices to fall, not the Tories and not even Labour.

The only people really complaining are the young who rent (esp. in London) and they tend to vote Labour anyway. It will still be decades before the demographics favour the young and generation rent and even then the inheritance change means many of the young will not want a fall in the value of their (tax-free) inheritance. So even many of the currently excluded young renters will become HPI advocates as they wait for their house ...

i think this time is fast approaching average firs time buyers age is now approaching 40 all the political parties are aware of this ,at this moment in time it`s all talk smoke and mirrors but at some point they will have to act and they know the party that actually dose this will be hard to oust in the future

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think some people have a tendency only to complain about taxes in the direct sense of income tax or wealth taxes, I.e taxes that are officially paid and listed.

However any increase in basic or essential service relative to location is essentially a tax on living, so HPI is a tax on those who did not buy earlier (of course there are many reasons for this, such as not choosing when you are born). It is a cost you of living you have no choice in paying.

Government policy and monetary policy has subsequently caused this. The Tories have spurred this on even further during their governance through using income Tax to encourage greater leverage in house purchases.

People are starting to wake up to this I think, finally. As stated above the problem is half the nation are beneficiaries of this "tax" and half are charged it, its about when the pendulum swings.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Beware, the money supply is growing too quickly!

City AM clown identifies Osborne's wild debt bingeing but fails to acknowledge the terrible bubble he's already caused.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11934954/Beware-the-money-supply-is-growing-too-quickly.html

[T]he quantity of broad money in cash and bank accounts (known as M4) together with National Savings, held by households and private non-financial firms, surged 6.3pc in the year to August. This was the fastest growth rate since June 2008, suggesting a build up of spending and investing power; it was also significantly higher than the 2013-14 average of 4.75pc.

In the past, a large increase in liquidity has always preceded a boom, bubble and bust. In 1986 and 1987, the government (the Bank in those days wasn’t independent) slashed interest rates, which led to the money supply surging by 15pc a year, triggering the Lawson boom and contributing to the eventual catastrophic bust from which the Tories never really recovered. Liquidity was growing by almost 9pc in 2004 as the credit boom was in full swing.

Edited by zugzwang

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The whole economy is entirely built around HPC. The Tories will fight tooth and nail to keep the status quo, whilst drip feeding lies and false promises to younger people, to look like that they "care" and give a monkeys about them.

Can't really see a cataclysmic event happening either...

That would be great. :lol:

That's how they sneak up with serious unwinding force.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

HPI makes the middle class feel special, so HPI for ever IMO.

However, there will come a time when it is outside of the UK's control and rates will rise.

This.

Most of the country has mundane lives. A house is most people only thing they can look at, see its six figures, and feel warm and fuzzy.

Even if it is a two up two down hovel and its going up in price means its harder to trade up and your'e stuck there.

Like they say, we get the governments we deserve. I cant really argue with that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Osbanker must be pleased with himself about that?

The more it costs people to live the more hours they have to work to survive. The more hours they work the more taxes they pay. Has there ever been more people in employment before? There seems to be plenty of couples rushing to sign up to joint income mortgages at ever increasing lending multiples, over ever increasing lengths of mortgage terms, to live the hamster on a wheel dream servicing ever increasing debt.

Yup, a central plank of an acquaintance's mortgage repayment plan is that they expect to inherit an unquantified sum of money at an uncertain moment if the future, from an unknown source. It's not the case that there's some ancient loaded relative with one foot in the grave, just general expectations of a fat cheque dropping on the mat one day.

Meanwhile, some of their extended family members are facilitating the current homeownership dream for them by providing 'free' childcare so that's four people working for the bank at least for part of the week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   7 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.