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TheCountOfNowhere

It Looks Like A Proper Crazy Asking Price Bubble Outside London Now...

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Some of the asking prices i've seen in the last week are beyond crazy.

I posted a couple on twitter earlier.

£280K for a 3 bed house in Northants that wouldn't have sold for £190K in 2007.

These asking prices have happened within the space of 18 months.

Even the crazy 1999-2007 bank collapsing bubble couldnt have dreamed of such madness.

This is not going to end well for anyone now.

I wouldnt believe it if I hadn't witnessed it for myself.

No wonder sales volumes are collapsing and everyone is up in arms about housing costs.

It's not a crisis, it's a fraud.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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I see Northants popping up alot when we talk about bubble prices.

Here in South Derbyshire, prices are flat, haven't really moved in 10 years, and that's with pretty good road/train links. I can be in London in a little over an hour, access to M42/M1/M6 pretty quickly.

What makes Northants so special?

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Tell me abahtit.

NW Essex/E Herts terminal. Open days on most new listings, any thing remotely OK gone first day.

One we liked (though overpriced) had viewings starting at 4.45 p.m - we were first - offered asking (reluctantly), but got outbid before 6 p.m.

BUT I've seen so many houses lately that seem to be SSTC forever. I'm really going to hold back now, as we're not under pressure & I think the situation will unwind in the winter. I think the desire is there but the cash isn't.

BUT I've been wrong for the last 10 years. So who knows.

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So what you really mean is place not that far from London are now seeing crazy type prices ?

Those who managed to eject themselves out of London just in time no doubt heavily involved.

An extra £100k for someone who has been gifted £200k over the last 3-4 years - isnt going to be noticed by them too much.

Its nuts.

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I see Northants popping up alot when we talk about bubble prices.

Here in South Derbyshire, prices are flat, haven't really moved in 10 years, and that's with pretty good road/train links. I can be in London in a little over an hour, access to M42/M1/M6 pretty quickly.

What makes Northants so special?

I have no idea.

Immigration maybe ?

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So what you really mean is place not that far from London are now seeing crazy type prices ?

Those who managed to eject themselves out of London just in time no doubt heavily involved.

An extra £100k for someone who has been gifted £200k over the last 3-4 years - isnt going to be noticed by them too much.

Its nuts.

I did some viewing a few weeks ago an the agent I spoke to was very honest.

It was along the lines of some agents were over valuing properties by up to 200K just to get stuff on their books. Basically no one is selling now so instructions are like gold dust.

He said the agents couldnt believe their luck and houses had been going like hot cakes. He said it wasn't sustainable and prices were going to collapse. he even did a swoop action with his hand :lol:

We both agreed this was the wrong time to buy and there was a lot of money to be lost.

None of his statements were from prompting neither.

It was then my wife and I decided the best course of action was to get the hell out of dodge.

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Tell me abahtit.

NW Essex/E Herts terminal. Open days on most new listings, any thing remotely OK gone first day.

One we liked (though overpriced) had viewings starting at 4.45 p.m - we were first - offered asking (reluctantly), but got outbid before 6 p.m.

BUT I've seen so many houses lately that seem to be SSTC forever. I'm really going to hold back now, as we're not under pressure & I think the situation will unwind in the winter. I think the desire is there but the cash isn't.

BUT I've been wrong for the last 10 years. So who knows.

Tell me abahtit.

NW Essex/E Herts terminal. Open days on most new listings, any thing remotely OK gone first day.

One we liked (though overpriced) had viewings starting at 4.45 p.m - we were first - offered asking (reluctantly), but got outbid before 6 p.m.

BUT I've seen so many houses lately that seem to be SSTC forever. I'm really going to hold back now, as we're not under pressure & I think the situation will unwind in the winter. I think the desire is there but the cash isn't.

BUT I've been wrong for the last 10 years. So who knows.

Any links ?

Seen some BIG falls in Essex/Herts with my searches.

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I have to agree. It's going like tsunami from London. Some asking prices are beyond the joke. 10 plus time local average salaries. Locals can't afford them any more.

Edited by rollover

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Osbanker has done what he said he was going to do 2 years ago?

I’m the first person to say we must be vigilant about avoiding the mistakes of the past. That’s why I gave powers to the Bank of England to stop dangerous housing bubbles emerging.

But too many people are still being denied the dream of owning their own home. So instead of starting the second phase of Help to Buy next year, we’re starting it next week.

There are some people - many living in the richest parts of London - who say we shouldn’t be doing these things. I have this to say:

Take you arguments down the road to Nelson or Colne, where house prices have fallen for the past five years. Take your arguments to Bury, or Morecambe, where young working couples are still living at home with their parents.

Take your arguments to our great towns and cities where there are families who have saved for years, earning decent salaries, who can afford the mortgage repayments but can't possibly afford the deposit being asked by the banks these days.

Take your arguments to those families and say: “This policy is not right. You shouldn't be allowed to get your home.”

I tell you what they'll say back: “It's alright for you. You've got your own home. We’ve been saving for years. What about us?”

I know whose side this Party is on. We are the party of aspiration. The housebuilding party of Macmillan.

The party of Thatcher's right to buy. And now the party of David Cameron’s Help to Buy. We are the party of home ownership and we’re going to let the country know it.

We are also going make sure no one is left behind as our economy recovers. Our goal is nothing short of a recovery for all.

http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2013/09/30/george-osborne-s-conference-speech-in-full

In that same speech he also said....

I am a believer in freedom and free markets.

Oh and this...

Ed Miliband told delegates he could make all our problems disappear. That he could send everyone a cheque in the post.

But it isn’t based on truth. More borrowing and more debt remains their economic policy.

But they no longer dare talk to the British people about it. Instead, they’d much rather just talk about the cost of living.

As if the cost of living was somehow detached from the performance of the economy. Well you ask the citizens of Greece what happens to living standards when the economy fails. You ask someone with a mortgage what happens to their living standards when mortgage rates go up.

Just a 1% rise means an extra £1000 on the average mortgage bill. You ask the citizens of this country what would be an absolute disaster for living standards. They’ll tell you.

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Is that 10 plus times single or household income?

In many areas 10 times average household income may buy a flat or small house but probably not a family house. In any case it's probably only possible for couples who both work and don't have children. So there's still quite a lot of demand at the lower end, the more expensive houses will get harder and harder to sell.

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Some of the asking prices i've seen in the last week are beyond crazy.

I posted a couple on twitter earlier.

£280K for a 3 bed house in Northants that wouldn't have sold for £190K in 2007.

These asking prices have happened within the space of 18 months.

Even the crazy 1999-2007 bank collapsing bubble couldnt have dreamed of such madness.

This is not going to end well for anyone now.

I wouldnt believe it if I hadn't witnessed it for myself.

No wonder sales volumes are collapsing and everyone is up in arms about housing costs.

It's not a crisis, it's a fraud.

What are the most recent transaction figures like?

I've seen an uptick in asking but a downtick in transaction.

In the North, its just a downtick in transactions.

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Some of the asking prices i've seen in the last week are beyond crazy.

I posted a couple on twitter earlier.

£280K for a 3 bed house in Northants that wouldn't have sold for £190K in 2007.

These asking prices have happened within the space of 18 months.

Even the crazy 1999-2007 bank collapsing bubble couldnt have dreamed of such madness.

This is not going to end well for anyone now.

I wouldnt believe it if I hadn't witnessed it for myself.

No wonder sales volumes are collapsing and everyone is up in arms about housing costs.

It's not a crisis, it's a fraud.

Kent and Essex above their 2007 peaks:

http://landregistry.data.gov.uk/app/hpi/view?compare=1&from_m=9&from_y=2000&loc_0=Essex&loc_1=Kent&loc_uri_0=http%3A%2F%2Flandregistry.data.gov.uk%2Fid%2Fregion%2Fessex&loc_uri_1=http%3A%2F%2Flandregistry.data.gov.uk%2Fid%2Fregion%2Fkent&m_hpi=1&source=preview_form&to_m=9&to_y=2015

Hackney more crazy than Kensington and Chelsea ...

http://landregistry.data.gov.uk/app/hpi/view?compare=1&from_m=9&from_y=2000&loc_0=Hackney&loc_1=Kensington+and+Chelsea&loc_uri_0=http%3A%2F%2Flandregistry.data.gov.uk%2Fid%2Fregion%2Fhackney&loc_uri_1=http%3A%2F%2Flandregistry.data.gov.uk%2Fid%2Fregion%2Fkensington-and-chelsea&m_hpi=1&source=preview_form&to_m=9&to_y=2015

Edited by Damik

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What are the most recent transaction figures like?

I've seen an uptick in asking but a downtick in transaction.

In the North, its just a downtick in transactions.

Down my way (West Sussex) the pattern seems to be that anything decent 300-450k will get snapped up pretty quickly, anything over 500k is hanging around for a long time. Generally there is very, very little coming on at all and a high proportion of under offers to available.

A lot of the stuff coming in over 500k is stuff that should be 300-450k, including some completely ludicrous examples recently. E.g. bought 2014 400k, lick of paint a new loft bedroom and on the market for £695k (dropped in increments to 615k now - still £150k too much, even at bubble prices). So to confirm - yes, insanely "aspirational" asking prices recently - like bonkers, and 30% more than people were asking 2 years ago.

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Those noughtie gains look to be locked in. :blink: Prices rose 2.5x in 7 years.

Derbyshire.png

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Just depressing, I don't really keep any detailed watch or focus on any particular area but asking prices all over (my experience) just seem to be going crazy. I have no idea if they are actually selling for that or being reduced etc., just that I can't afford any of it.

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I've noticed this in the south west. I'm tempted to sell my home (its ripe for boomer development) and make a 6 figure profit in three years. However I'd worry too much about what to do with the money and if no decent property came up at auction.[/quote

your making that #### up. south west is seeing 50% reductions on rightmove.

Northants, sure asking prices honed mental. sales prices, not pm much. sales volumes collapsing.

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