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thewig

Northwood: "sneaky Rent Dodgers"

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Was driving along today and had some sort of fleeting epiphany re house prices. Like I caught a glimpse of the matrix, that these new levels are baked in now, because the market believes and more importantly accepts they are, all of us on here with our rational thought processes and market and cycle analysis and all the other macro economic sht you can shovel on top about what should be happening doesn't make a dent in the mindset of the great british public. This is a sentiment driven market and the sentiment is ingrained through mass scale mind control and brainwashing.

Looking at society from a control perspective, the defining characteristic of the UK to keep the plebs nicely placated is house prices. Nothing else matters, really. There is no reasoning with someone who says 'the price of my house going up is a good thing'. If your job was to control the UK public to basically keep the system functioning and keep the masses content and from rioting all you need to do is convince them house prices are rising and they'll accept it and quietly go about their day somehow feeling rich.

Another forum I frequent completely unrelated to house prices linked to an interview with a sportsman in his home recently. Some guy piped up completely off topic 'his house will be worth £xm in that part of london' then a discussion kicked off about how much some sportsman's house was worth. People were getting passionate arguing about how many millions this stranger's stack of concrete was worth.

Another guy I know through work, a customer actually, decent enough guy middle management aspiring type I suppose, we were chatting pre meeting small talk about holidays and the like, we'd both been away, he'd been somewhere in cornwall etc. the topic he starts banging on about though about his holiday was the place they were staying was nearby some sort of plush development near a golf course or something. He's proudly telling me how many houses there were, 30 odd of them, and how each one was worth 400-500k easily, his eyes lit up saying 'you do the maths!'.

It's like people feel rich by proxy if they point out to someone else the value of a house? Its batshit mental, like it's all they have :huh:

My generation mid 30s all seem very accepting that we have worse housing than our parents, even though we're mostly dual income households. The brainwashing is immense, the word 'homeowner' is used in the media so emotively it has burrowed a hole in our collective subconscious in the same way 'renter' has become more and more demonised.

Has anyone heard the latest Northwood advert for landlords? It's truly ******ing horrible to listen to if you are a renter, it refers to the hassle of dealing with "sneaky rent dodgers" such a throwaway line just casually chucked out there whilst that happy music pops along in the background.

The unfortunate choice in the UK is you take on a ******ing ridiculous debt for the privilege of choosing your own carpets and curtains and furniture, or you rent and accept grotty carpets curtains wallpaper etc. The obvious answer to me has always been it isn't worth taking on a debt of £x00k to be able to choose a carpet but its getting to the stage with my wife now where this is becoming an important factor. As she says we're not students, we should be able to make a comfortable home for our family etc. I'm lucky that my wife is very pragmatic and sees no value at current prices but it is getting to the stage where I'm starting to think what the fck am I doing fighting against this tide of sanity I must be the crazy one, everyone else cannot be wrong etc.

We're looking for a bigger place to rent at the moment to have a bit more space for our 2yo and better quality of living etc as we're currently spending fck all (~15% of takehome) on rent so able to save and build the pot but the pot only seems to grow at the pace of the prices so whats the fcking point!!!!!

So what is my point? No idea I'm just losing the will to swim against the tide. wondering what the point of it all is, the ultimate goal for us is to be able to enjoy life on one salary, so we're saving as much as we can whilst we're both earning relatively good salaries, to hopefully buy a house when sanity returns and not be tied into two salaries to service the debt. But if we keep renting, that keeps the renting model viable, which maintains the prices, which keeps the prices out of our target zone etc. its a never ending feedback loop and I am at a loss as to how this all ends.

I'm having a bad week, clearly. :ph34r:

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They (pretty much all the MPs) will always chose wiping the value of your savings out over falling property prices.

Most of them have several properties.

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I've got to the point now where I don't want a house in this country. It gets to me so much, that people cannot see it benefits nobody but the banks and government. It strikes me that our culture is endemically selfish to allow to occur, at all levels and this isn't a society I wish to be a part of anymore. Even if house prices fell now, I believe the damage done to me is too great to forgive.

I'll be looking to rent in Germany most likely. I visited friends a few years back an hour outside Frankfurt. Lovely 2 bed flat, rental £350 a month. Can do what they want to it, the place is essentially theirs providing that money keeps coming in.

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I'm 3 or 4 years older than you from the sound of it. We now have 2 kids (2 and 4) and rent a shabby (but far from terrible) 2 bed mid terrace. We'd love to choose our own carpets, paint, and plant a nice fruit tree.... but its all on hold because of the lunancy you mention.

Just before the tulip bubble popped, I mean literally the day before, there would still have been people thinking .... "maybe this IS the new norm... maybe we should take on a loan for a bulb...." and even people actually giving in to that urge. The next day those 2 people would have had very different chats over the morning cornflakes!

The lunacy is ubiquitous but that does not mean it is not lunacy. The market is so skewed that the normal price discovery mechanisms have disappeared. I recommend you follow the blog here: http://www.icis.com/blogs/chemicals-and-the-economy

Although from a chemicals point of view, there are some very refreshing articles on various elephants in the room... demographics, china, oil, house prices, etc.

My wife and I have just accepted that renting at £800pm is better than struggling to repay a £1000pm mortgage, knowing that the latter gives no wiggle room for emergency repairs, unemployment., etc etc.

Stick with it my friend .... enjoy going for walks, watching your kid(s), making a nice cup of coffee, reading a book, watching a film... etc. THOSE things make you happy, being in debt to own a home does not.

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I think something happens to your thinking once you've bought in. Homeowners still believe in the 'ladder'. They think 'well my current house has gone up £x so I have £x more equity which means I can borrow £x*4 extra in order to get a bigger house'. Apparently you just sit there and magically your house buys you a bigger one, with no effort required.

Point out that some first time buyer has to actually pay the £x, and that (since they stretched themselves to the absolute limit to pay the original non-inflated price) they themselves would have no chance to buy their first-time-buyer house if they were doing so today - well, that's just the way things are.

And my homeowning friends outside the South-East, most of them either have a flat they let out (or two) in addition to their own home, or are looking to let out their starter flat now they've upgraded to a house. People don't sell property any more. They hang onto it, get in a serf to pay the mortgage, and wait for capital gain.

It's like there are two kinds of money. The kind you earn, and the kind you buy houses with. And one has no connection to the other.

When I think of the cost of a footballer's house or look at a pretty village I'll never be able to afford to live in, all I feel is anger and frustration.

I've realised recently that my employer will never be able to pay me enough to buy a flat. So the clock is ticking on my tolerance for serfdom. If anyone finds somewhere decent to escape to, please let me know.

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I would guess many outside London have twigged (see what I did there) that property is not the bet they thought it was, also many BTL`ers everywhere will soon have to re-adjust their beliefs about what they are involved in. All the people who want a bumper pay-out for their house can`t get it, that is not going to happen without a return to pre-2008 credit conditions.

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Don't lose heart...I think we're on the cusp of a big turnaround. It's been building for much longer than I would have thought possible (at least from 2003) and I thought we'd got there in 2008 but no. Hang on in there....you're right about sentiment and that's why it's taking so long but when it goes it will be spectacular I should think. I don't think it'll only be property either. I reckon all asset classes will be toast. :D

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I think something happens to your thinking once you've bought in. Homeowners still believe in the 'ladder'. They think 'well my current house has gone up £x so I have £x more equity which means I can borrow £x*4 extra in order to get a bigger house'. Apparently you just sit there and magically your house buys you a bigger one, with no effort required.

Point out that some first time buyer has to actually pay the £x, and that (since they stretched themselves to the absolute limit to pay the original non-inflated price) they themselves would have no chance to buy their first-time-buyer house if they were doing so today - well, that's just the way things are.

And my homeowning friends outside the South-East, most of them either have a flat they let out (or two) in addition to their own home, or are looking to let out their starter flat now they've upgraded to a house. People don't sell property any more. They hang onto it, get in a serf to pay the mortgage, and wait for capital gain.

It's like there are two kinds of money. The kind you earn, and the kind you buy houses with. And one has no connection to the other.

When I think of the cost of a footballer's house or look at a pretty village I'll never be able to afford to live in, all I feel is anger and frustration.

I've realised recently that my employer will never be able to pay me enough to buy a flat. So the clock is ticking on my tolerance for serfdom. If anyone finds somewhere decent to escape to, please let me know.

I hope the clock is ticking for HPC, although a lot of that, is how I've seen the market play out.

I don't feel anger for I would be happy with just a very basic humble house (and be clever with the fittings to maximise space/modern) but I'm not willing to pay £250K-£300K for it in this market.

They can keep those mansions. Can't stand large show-off houses myself. Too high risk in this world, for me. I wouldn't want to be living in such homes with many younger people on the edge, feeling anger and frustration, and hard-up for money. (Not that I condone robbery/crime in anyway whatsoever.)

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-3262776/Premier-League-star-Tom-Cleverley-threatened-armed-robbers-baseball-bats-175-000-raid-Manchester-home.html

Edited by Venger

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[...]there are some very refreshing articles on various elephants in the room... demographics, china, oil, house prices, etc.

My wife and I have just accepted that renting at £800pm is better than struggling to repay a £1000pm mortgage, knowing that the latter gives no wiggle room for emergency repairs, unemployment., etc etc.

Stick with it my friend .... enjoy going for walks, watching your kid(s), making a nice cup of coffee, reading a book, watching a film... etc. THOSE things make you happy, being in debt to own a home does not.

Yes. For the first time in a long time, seeing some on the BTL side feeling very uneasy (because of BTL tax-relief changes).

Time to relax a bit and let it play out.

I was in a rental, paying £695 pcm. Nobody else was exactly biting their arm off to rent it at £695 when I moved in. The whole row was owned by a big local business - the one next door had let for £625 last year sometime. They are now trying to sell whole lot. The one I was in is on the market for £225k. Even if you put down a £35k deposit giving you 85% LTV, you'd still be looking at about £1,150 each month on the mortgage on a 5 year fix, even at these rates. Once you roll in the £50/month you'd forego as interest income when you surrendered the deposit you end up with a picture of £695 vs £1,200. For me when I look at the grim detail it's obvious than in the South East we still have a massive bubble in prices. Escalation of rents is oversold, the idea of masses of demand is likewise oversold. It's all very well talking about people being too old to be granted mortgages, at these multiples you're got to think about whether you might expect to live long enough to make it worth your while buying instead of renting! £225k makes sense (on a very broad definition of sense) if you can get a 85% LTV mortgage interest only mortgage at about 5% and believe that house prices only ever go up and the costs of maintaining the asset are always trivial.

I don't know about other places and other segments but for horrid 2 beds where I'm based its pretty clear that the rents people can afford are about £750pcm-£850pcm, but people are trying to sell houses as if people could afford to pay a mortgage that was £300/£400 more.

The nature of the financing has changed. This Hamish goon is right that it's about mortgages, but the resolution is not going to be a return to profligate lending. The resolution will be a resumption of the needed correction to house prices. I don't think that we'll be in the new normal till people trying to sell houses work that out. Until then modest transaction volumes and a queue of late entrant BTLers strengthening the banks balance sheets one deposit at a time.

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Like I caught a glimpse of the matrix, that these new levels are baked in now, because the market He's proudly telling me how many houses there were, 30 odd of them, and how each one was worth 400-500k easily, his eyes lit up saying 'you do the maths!'.

It's like people feel rich by proxy if they point out to someone else the value of a house? Its batshit mental, like it's all they have :huh:

My generation mid 30s all seem very accepting that we have worse housing than our parents, even though we're mostly dual income households. The brainwashing is immense, the word 'homeowner' is used in the media so emotively it has burrowed a hole in our collective subconscious in the same way 'renter' has become more and more demonised.

Has anyone heard the latest Northwood advert for landlords? It's truly ******ing horrible to listen to if you are a renter, it refers to the hassle of dealing with "sneaky rent dodgers" such a throwaway line just casually chucked out there whilst that happy music pops along in the background.

[...]its a never ending feedback loop and I am at a loss as to how this all ends.

I'm having a bad week, clearly. :ph34r:

By accepting their shallow outlooks on life will have to change (the forever HPIers / smug HPIers & BTLers / wannabee HPIers / BTLers), worrying less for those who are at top of the layer cake, those who want to get to top of HPI layer cake (via debt).... and waiting for HPC and opportunity for generations ahead when market levels out.

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Another guy I know through work, a customer actually, decent enough guy middle management aspiring type I suppose, we were chatting pre meeting small talk about holidays and the like, we'd both been away, he'd been somewhere in cornwall etc. the topic he starts banging on about though about his holiday was the place they were staying was nearby some sort of plush development near a golf course or something. He's proudly telling me how many houses there were, 30 odd of them, and how each one was worth 400-500k easily, his eyes lit up saying 'you do the maths!'.

It's like people feel rich by proxy if they point out to someone else the value of a house? Its batshit mental, like it's all they have :huh:

Apparently that's particularly prevalent in London for a lot of people - escapism. Getting away from the place to somewhere relatively nice but then the awfulness of having to return to the grim and grinding consequences of its crazy house prices. That has to some extent expanded across the UK now but London is the worst.

Edited by billybong

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I reckon B&Q will be bust before this all turns around. There simply won't be enough people buying DIY stuff, let alone knowing how to wield a brush.

The only thing that gets bought is landlord cheap sh*t.

Dulux too might as well pack their bags and just manufacture magnolia and white gloss paints.

Absolutely agree with this. Toilet seats that break in months and taps that lose their chrome after six months. They don't care because the landlord will be back to buy more with the tenant's deposit in six months to a year. Kids are not taught how to make stuff properly in schools so the next generation of DIYers is already stuffed even if BoMaD does buy them a mortgage.

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Absolutely agree with this. Toilet seats that break in months and taps that lose their chrome after six months. They don't care because the landlord will be back to buy more with the tenant's deposit in six months to a year. Kids are not taught how to make stuff properly in schools so the next generation of DIYers is already stuffed even if BoMaD does buy them a mortgage.

People don't bother with apprenticeships anymore, they just surf youtube.

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Absolutely agree with this. Toilet seats that break in months and taps that lose their chrome after six months. They don't care because the landlord will be back to buy more with the tenant's deposit in six months to a year. Kids are not taught how to make stuff properly in schools so the next generation of DIYers is already stuffed even if BoMaD does buy them a mortgage.

Strongly agree with this. I grew up in rented, and lived in rented until I bought my place aged 40 a couple of years back. I'm reasonably handy (I have no problem fixing a bike including a complete rebuild) but household DIY was completely new to me as I never saw my Dad do any, or had any scope to do any previously.

Thankfully most of it isn't that complicated - and as mortgage bitch suggests - there's always YouTube.

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It's like there are two kinds of money. The kind you earn, and the kind you buy houses with. And one has no connection to the other.

I've heard people call it 'property tokens' like the money you have locked away in housing isn't real money because you cant spend it

If we had a long slow decline in house prices, I think a lot of owners would just watch dispairingly. The idea of selling to rent would never be taken seriously.

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I can't imagine how frustrating that must be OP. So close yet so far. When you zoom in on just the UK housing market it makes you despair so much and how so many people want to buy into it, fuelling a self sustaining cycle. I don't earn enough to even borrow enough for a house. Shared ownership would be my only option.

When you zoom out and look at the macro global financial situation, it makes you realise that this is repeated in other countries and can't go on forever.

Globally debt levels have skyrocketed since 2008 and we are in a global debt bubble of real estate, bonds and stocks due to extend and pretend with QE, low interest rates and props such as HTB.

As banks create 97% of the money supply with essentially printed funny money it tends to go mostly into property markets, which in turn impoverishes the ones who can't ride the ponzi schemes they make.

All currencies in the world are now fiat based, backed by nothing but faith. (Might have to double check that)

It's great you have a sizeable deposit but my concern would be that when you deposit money in a bank, it is no longer legally yours. The Bank of England said this in black and white in May. (See my signature)

While the banks are 'stable' at the moment, it's worth bearing that in mind. I don't mean to scare or anything, just share information. With the piss poor returns on deposits, it is worth staying with deposits or exploring cash, precious metals, stocks etc?

Thank you sharing your situation :D

Edited by Assume The Opposite

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