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Margret Thatcher

The Hpc Price Prognosticator 2005

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I wonder who will win.

Unfortunately some of the predictions look like they will be way off the mark.

Maybe we should have another one for 2006?

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...rediction&st=40

Well house price inflation down 22%? since then.

Puts BubbA half a percent out doesn't it? :unsure:

Next!

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whose figures are we going by; Hometrack, Rightmove, HBOS, Nationwide, ODPM, RICS, Land Registry etc etc????????

Disraeli once said something about statistics.

However, I think it's a bit of fun so I'll say.........

.......7% down

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whose figures are we going by; Hometrack, Rightmove, HBOS, Nationwide, ODPM, RICS, Land Registry etc etc????????

Disraeli once said something about statistics.

However, I think it's a bit of fun so I'll say.........

.......7% down

These were the rules last year by Trophy Bear.

I wonder if he is going to annouce the winner for this year.

Does somebody fancy running with the idea of a prediction thread i.e. posting monthly updates of the leaders and the eventual winner for 2006?

The HPC Price Prognosticator 2005

Here it is. Your chance to prove that you really do know it all when it comes to house prices! The aim of this competition is simply to predict what the annual house price inflation figure will be for 2005. The winner will be able to claim bragging rights for the whole of 2006 and be regarded as The HPC expert.

How to play:

To play you can either send me (Topher Bear) a Private Message (PM) or Post your prediction in this thread.

Here are the rules:

1.1 The measure against which the predictions will be compared is the Hometrack House Price Index figures. The winner is the one who’s predicted percentage is closest to that of the Hometrack report.

1.2 There will be a secondary competition running which will use the Land Registry figure, when it eventually comes out.

2.1 All entries should be provided to 2 decimal places with a clear – or + to indicate a fall or rise in prices. e.g. if you expect a 20% fall in prices you should put –20.00%, if you expect a five and a half percent rise then you should put +5.50%. When making the prediction post/PM please place the predicted value first and leave a gap before adding any comments you may wish to make regarding your prediction (please keep such comments to a few lines only)

2.2 Deadline for entries is Midnight on December 31st 2004. Late entries, via PM only, will be accepted until Midnight on January 31st 2005, however these will be marked as late on results sheets and are not eligible to win the competition.

2.3 You may change your prediction as often as you like up until the deadline (if a prediction is changed between the two deadlines (via PM only), then the entry will likewise be marked as late and ineligible to win), the final prediction made will be your entry all previous predictions will be scrubbed. Please do not edit previous prediction posts, as these cannot be guaranteed to be spotted, just make a new prediction in a new post (delete the old post if you wish).

3 During the course of the competition, a regular monthly update will be posted as soon as possible after the release of the monthly Hometrack report. In order to provide a part year predication, each entry will be reduced proportionally to the number of months passed and compared to the year to date figure from the Hometrack report (usually found in Table 2 towards the bottom of page 4 of the report). The formula used will be:

Entry * no. months passed

.................12

4.1 In the case of a tie, the winner will be the one who made the prediction first.

4.2 In the event of the Hometrack survey ceasing operation, then the competition will resort to the Land Registry figures as the comparative target. The monthly update will use the Halifax/HBOS Non-seasonally adjusted index figure as the temporary target.

5. The judges reserve the right to alter the rules if deemed necessary (e.g. unforeseen loopholes) at any time. Such changes will be posted either in this thread or with the regular monthly update threads.

Please keep this thread clear for predictions and leave any comments regarding other peoples predictions to another thread in the main forum.

As a taster, the latest Hometrack results provided an October 04 change of –0.6% and a year to date change of +2.52%.

Good Luck all and may the best Bear (or Bull) win!

Topher Bear (HPC PP 2005 organiser!)

Mods. Please could we keep this thread pinned for a while, so that everyone gets a chance to see it and enter. Thanks

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OK if we stick to the same rules as last year,i.e hometrack national index that'll be grand.

I'll re-state mine as -8.70% in 2006

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wow - so many names on that thread that we never see anymore.

I guess posters have a short shelf life on HPC. It is a tough school!

down 11%

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DOWN,DOWN...DEEPER AND DOWN!!!.

btl will get wind of sipps being a white elephant and will be forced to sell!

...through a combination of higher IR's and post christmas lay-offs by the retailers.

HPI next year IMO -6%.

QUOTE(Bagehot @ Nov 7 2005, 09:16 AM)

I think we may have to wait until 2007 before we see significant falls. We arent going to enjoy/suffer a economic crash, but a slow decline over the coming years.

.....well guess what!,SIPPS IS a white elephant(I wasn't expecting it to manifest itself quite so early)

I think the significant falls will be starting a bit sooner than I originally pencilled in.....hence the more negative prognosis(now -8.7% from -6%)

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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