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benbfc

Food And Beverage Market 'implosion'.....

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An interesting link and interview being reported on the Estates Gazette Website today (sign up needed)

http://www.egi.co.uk/news/completely-retail-fb-sector-to-implode/?keyword

As a member of the RICS (not on the valuation side) and having to put up with all the pie in the sky neverending growth rubbish trotted out every quarter this sort of article does show that some people get it!.....

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Burger-and-fries-generic-THUMB.jpegAUDIO: The growth in the UK’s food and beverage market is unsustainable and there will be significant closures in the next 15 months, a retail expert has warned.

The supermarket sector is also set for cannibalisation, Matthew Hopkinson, director at the Local Data Company told this week’s Completely Retail conference.

“My biggest worry [over the next year] is the F&B sector. In the last five years we have seen 14,000 restaurants open. I know we are an obese nation, but how many more restaurants do we need? And when you look at the profitability of those players, it will start to become a challenge,” he said.

Hopkinson predicted that because of high consumer debt the economic bubble would burst.

“We are going to see some of the bigger players go into administration or we may start to see an impact on the independents,” he warned.

Hopkinson added that with the constantly expanding supermarket sector, there would be “a bloodbath of competition with chances of cannibalisation.”

To hear the full interview, click on the audio player below, or download from Estates Gazette’s iTunes channel.

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“We are going to see some of the bigger players go into administration or we may start to see an impact on the independents,”

So:

Some of the bigger chains may or may not go bust

Smaller independent restaurants may or may not go bust

Wow where do I send my fee for this earth-shattering wisdom?

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I can't see there being a problem....may the best firms who give the customer what they want win....high risk, poor food stuffs, irresponsibility and wasteage and suffer the consequences, are they asking for a bailout?....at least people have a choice in where they buy or eat their food at the moment...unable to choose what train or water company, they own the monopoly.....supermarkets don't thankfully.

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Businesses going bust is all part of a healthy economy. If you aren't fit to survive and refuse to understand why, others will learn why and avoid the same mistakes.

That was the old model- the new model is zombie economics where those unfit to survive linger on as undead propped up by QE and ZIRP- that or they get bailed out by the taxpayer.

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Perhaps some of the foulest of the total crap - like McNastys, Kentucky fried vomit, and Dominos - could be weeded out?

Hmmm. Dream on.

14,000 opened past 5 years? Must be due to the reflationary splurge.

When monetary policy tightens, or market fall, some of my HPI acquaintances will be so broke, they'll only go to KFC to lick other people's fingers.

When headlines feature rising house prices, it is easy to dismiss the thought of deflation. But pockets of rising prices can live within a generalised deflationary environment. Indeed, increasing prices for essentials such as housing, adds to the downward pressure on spending in other areas. It is these mixed signals that keep investors off guard. Many of the official statistics point to the deflation story, but the concept itself is so alien that it is dismissed by most commentators, policy-makers and central banks.

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Businesses going bust is all part of a healthy economy. If you aren't fit to survive and refuse to understand why, others will learn why and avoid the same mistakes.

Agreed.

Plus, with Waitrose giving away free coffee who these days pays for it?

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Agreed.

Plus, with Waitrose giving away free coffee who these days pays for it?

For a typical waitrose customer, their children and their grandchildren will pick up the tab.

That's why they love free things.

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So:

Some of the bigger chains may or may not go bust

Smaller independent restaurants may or may not go bust

Wow where do I send my fee for this earth-shattering wisdom?

This isn't just business-as-usual.

Private equity money is flowing into the start-up restaurant sector creating a huge bubble.

Private equity feasts on restaurant sector

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Funnily enough I was at the new Birmingham new street station and shopping centre today, was surprised at how many restaurants they had in there, OK they needed more than the old station. But with the convenience stores as well they may have gone too far.

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This isn't just business-as-usual.

Private equity money is flowing into the start-up restaurant sector creating a huge bubble.

Private equity feasts on restaurant sector

It's perfectly normal for private equity to support up-and-coming business in all sectors. That's how you grow a business beyond the size of that nice couple who run the corner shop, up to a chain you'd see in many places, and optionally a stock market flotation.

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Funnily enough I was at the new Birmingham new street station and shopping centre today, was surprised at how many restaurants they had in there, OK they needed more than the old station. But with the convenience stores as well they may have gone too far.

How many of them are any good? The standard of a cuppa (particularly coffee) has come a long way in recent years. But if you want a bite to eat that isn't a sweetie, or a cold drink that's not sickeningly sweet, that can be much harder to find. For example, I often have to change trains at Westbury, a horrible station where the nearest thing to a bite to eat is a soggy and foul-tasting ginsters sandwich. Even the big-city stations in the southwest, like Plymouth and Exeter, are food deserts.

If you have something decent, like an Upper Crust or M&S travel shop, you may not realise just how lucky you are.

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I think there will be some reduction in eating venues but eating/leisure are all that's really left for the high street given poor demand for other types of shop. A large shopping centre in my area is redeveloping one of its malls to be restaurant led.

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.....coffee shops and eateries everything done and made, cooked and served to you are becoming more popular....more people living on the move, either working hard or for leisure.... in the case of the working class multiple sharing, because they do not have cooking or storage facilities...or ability, knowhow, confidence or inclination to do things for themselves.....rather pay for something now quickly and relatively cheaply, different all things considering..........hungry house said sorry nothing available, no takeaway junkmail either....bliss. ;)

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How many of them are any good? The standard of a cuppa (particularly coffee) has come a long way in recent years. But if you want a bite to eat that isn't a sweetie, or a cold drink that's not sickeningly sweet, that can be much harder to find. For example, I often have to change trains at Westbury, a horrible station where the nearest thing to a bite to eat is a soggy and foul-tasting ginsters sandwich. Even the big-city stations in the southwest, like Plymouth and Exeter, are food deserts.

If you have something decent, like an Upper Crust or M&S travel shop, you may not realise just how lucky you are.

we are talking way beyond upper crust and m&s here (for one of the more deprived parts of the country). It is a station at the bottom with this lot (including the essential 5 guys, as McDonald's is now too down market):

https://www.networkrail.co.uk/birmingham-new-street-station/shops/

Then a shopping centre on the top floor with this lot: http://www.grandcentralbirmingham.com/eat

Edited by reddog

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we are talking way beyond upper crust and m&s here (for one of the more deprived parts of the country). It is a station at the bottom with this lot (including the essential 5 guys, as McDonald's is now too down market):

https://www.networkrail.co.uk/birmingham-new-street-station/shops/

Then a shopping centre on the top floor with this lot: http://www.grandcentralbirmingham.com/eat

Hehe. Well, the first list comprises mostly non-food outlets. I did say coffee had come a long way, as evidenced by costa and starbucks, but you wouldn't want to eat there. And as for a burger joint or chocolate shop, no bloomin' fear! I'd've thought a station as big&busy as Brum should have ample trade for all of them.

The second list looks a bit more unfamiliar and even esoteric. Maybe something to explore if one has ample time and company? I guess that's the modern "shopping experience"?

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