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rantnrave

Land Reg Aug 2015

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I am curious why the Land Reg numbers are so different from the HMRC numbers

Number of sales, for instance

LR Mar - Jun 14 73,985 per month average : HMRC 85,325 average

I have emailed both to ask about the discrepancies.

"Hello All

I am curious about discrepancies in the data relating to property transactions in recent publications by the Land Registry and HMRC.
I hope you can help clarify.
I refer to these 2 documents:
HMRC UK Porperty Transaction Statistics
and
Land Registry House Price Index
and I refer specifically to transaction volume data
The Land Registry document states that
"In the months March 2015 to June 2015, sales volumes averaged 65,550 transactions per month. This is a decrease from the same period a year earlier, when sales volumes averaged 73,985 per month."
Whilst data from table 2 in the HMRC document shows very different figures:
March to June 2015 averages at 87,275 transactions versus 89,450 average for March to June 2014.
That is a big difference, >20% at the extremes and, surely, calls into doubt both sets of data.
Whilst this is an obvious example, there are other discrepancies between the two data sources too. I would, therefore, be interested in your comments about how the two sets of data, that claim to report the same thing and are both issued by official government bodies, can be so fundamentally different.
Thank you."
Edited by pipllman

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Land Registry figures show house prices continuing to rise

The annual rate of growth slows to 4.2%, but there were rises in all regions of England and Wales.

Surveyors and estate agents have been reporting a shortage of homes for sale, and the Land Registry’s figures for transaction levels suggest this led to a slowdown in activity in the spring.

Edited by rollover

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I am curious why the Land Reg numbers are so different from the HMRC numbers...

LR is England & Wales vs UK for HMRC. LR sales volumes aren't complete and exclude some corporate/repo transactions. But from what I recall of comments by freetrader and others that still doesn't account for all the current and historical difference.

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LR is England & Wales vs UK for HMRC. LR sales volumes aren't complete and exclude some corporate/repo transactions. But from what I recall of comments by freetrader and others that still doesn't account for all the current and historical difference.

Whatever, volume has dropped off considerably AND is sig lower than pre Recession - with lowest borrowing rates in history...

What happens next time we have a Recession and rates can't be slashed?

I have been asking this all over for a few years. Not a single person has come up with a satisfactory answer as to what TPTB can do to get econony/HPs going again.

Edited by Killer Bunny

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HTB only works when people don't fear losing their jobs. The scenario painted is a Recession and the economy will be toast with no slashing of rates.

Same question.

Edited by Killer Bunny

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Whatever, volume has dropped off considerably AND is sig lower than pre Recession - with lowest borrowing rates in history...

What happens next time we have a Recession and rates can't be slashed?

I have been asking this all over for a few years. Not a single person has come up with a satisfactory answer as to what TPTB can do to get econony/HPs going again.

Not sure how that's related to my reply about relative transaction reporting, where I'd be interested in any response pipllman receives.

On your tangent, this is a chart of average price (land reg) vs residential transactions reported by HMRC.

Jzrzebb.jpg?1

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LR is England & Wales vs UK for HMRC. LR sales volumes aren't complete and exclude some corporate/repo transactions. But from what I recall of comments by freetrader and others that still doesn't account for all the current and historical difference.

HMRC is split down to England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland

I am inclined to go with the money collectors rather than the registry, but I am interested to see what response comes from LR and HMRC

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Not sure how that's related to my reply about relative transaction reporting, where I'd be interested in any response pipllman receives.

On your tangent, this is a chart of average price (land reg) vs residential transactions reported by HMRC.

Jzrzebb.jpg?1

A sig fall of volume

Capture.JPG

post-897-0-34009700-1443442906_thumb.jpg

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The hype about regions outside of the SE now booming also appears to be more guff.

It's June which was obviously very close to the election that returned a majority for the Help to Bail Banks party. Round my way (Cheshire) sales/prices seem to have picked up since then.

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Not sure how that's related to my reply about relative transaction reporting, where I'd be interested in any response pipllman receives.

On your tangent, this is a chart of average price (land reg) vs residential transactions reported by HMRC.

Jzrzebb.jpg?1

Wow, that's a pretty interesting graph. Unless some kind of new paradigm is at play, I think it's fairly safe to say that either transactions are set to pick up substantially, or prices are set to fall substantially, or both.

It certainly chimes with what I'm seeing in my area - asking prices are at least 20% higher than they were this time last year, but virtually nothing is coming oto the market, very little that's on is selling.

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Wow, that's a pretty interesting graph. Unless some kind of new paradigm is at play, I think it's fairly safe to say that either transactions are set to pick up substantially, or prices are set to fall substantially, or both.

It certainly chimes with what I'm seeing in my area - asking prices are at least 20% higher than they were this time last year, but virtually nothing is coming oto the market, very little that's on is selling.

I've lined up the axis a bit. And to be fair, I reckon various housing measures (and maybe widerer economic measures) would look similar when plotted against house prices over the period.

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Wow, that's a pretty interesting graph. Unless some kind of new paradigm is at play, I think it's fairly safe to say that either transactions are set to pick up substantially, or prices are set to fall substantially, or both.

It certainly chimes with what I'm seeing in my area - asking prices are at least 20% higher than they were this time last year, but virtually nothing is coming oto the market, very little that's on is selling.

Transactions lead prices in both directions, that's the general rule.

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I've just finished importing the latest data into houseprices.io if anyone wants to explore the detail.

Very nice. Could I hijack this with a feature request :). Any chance you could add a way to bookmark a single property please? I can save a link eg (https://houseprices.io/penarth/llandough/summerland-crescent) for a whole road, but I can't save the right-hand section with property details - it changes depending on where the mouse happens to be. Would be cool to be able to bookmark number 12, say, at https://houseprices.io/penarth/llandough/summerland-crescent/12 .

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