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Rightmove (Initial) Asking Price Index - More Soaring

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Lack of supply becoming entrenched:

Asking prices have soared to a new record high, driven by high demand and low supply, according to Rightmove.

There are 6% fewer properties coming to the market than this time last year as home owners stay put.

Separately, Nationwide has said that home mover activity remains 52% down from its peak, with first-time buyer levels 26% below the pre-crunch level.

This morning Rightmove reports the biggest September rise for 13 years in asking prices for properties new to the market.

The average new asking price is now £294,834 up 0.9% on August and 6.4% on a year ago.

Marked regional variations push Surrey to the top of the leader board, where the average asking price of a property new to the market is now £545,841.

In London the average asking price has shot up 2.2% in a month to stand at £620,003.

The 15 most expensive counties are all in the south, where property listings are down 7.1%. In the north, there are also fewer properties on the market, down 4.9%.

In the north, the midlands and Wales, asking prices have all slipped on a monthly basis.

For example, the average asking price of a property new to the market in the north-east is £144,219, down 3.2%. In Yorkshire & the Humber it has dipped 0.4% from August.

Rightmove said that the falls in the lower-priced regions are reducing would-be sellers ability to raise adequate funds to move, and exacerbating supply shortages.

Despite Londons overall rise in new asking prices, some areas have had significant monthly slides in asking prices including a 12.5% fall in Westminster.

The average number of properties for sale per branch is 63, compared with 69 in September last year.

Although Rightmove labels this mornings index as September, in fact most of the new asking prices were measured in August. Altogether, Rightmove measured 134,029 new asking prices between August 9 and September 12.

Speaking at the Financial Services Expo in London, Nationwide senior economist Stefano Silvestrin said that in the mortgage market, home moving and first-time buying activity are both down from their pre-credit crunch peak, while buy-to-let transactions are down 44%.

He said that only cash transactions are ahead of their pre-crunch peak, up 3%.

He said the major risk to the entire UK housing market is the continued poor supply of homes on the market.

* Hamptons has updated its price forecast predictions for the housing market. It now expects house prices across England and Wale to rise 5% this year and 4.5% next.

It had previously forecast a price rise this year of just 2.5%, and 3.5% next year.

Full report: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2015/09/september-2015.pdf

Article source: http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/drought-asking-prices-soar-to-new-record-as-stock-levels-dry-up/

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Average house price could hit £300,000 in three months

The average price of a house hit a new national high in September, rising £2,550 to £294,834, and is now poised to reach £300,000 by the end of the year.

Telegraph headline.

I'm feeling rich today!!! I'm not certain how many people will be able to buy at these prices but it must be good for the economy. :ph34r:

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The market is completely dysfunctional. I think were at or close to the point now where some action needs to be taken just to get things moving again. They either have to introduce yet more props and make borrowing easier, or kick the props away and let gravity do its thing.

I will never underestimate the sheer gutlessness of Osborne and Cameron. HTB Infinity may be just around the corner.

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That chart was posted last week - it seems to confirm rising prices on the back of falling supply.

look at the historical data. the prices normally follow the supply.

prices have detached from any kind of reality.

it's a bubble and it's going to pop.

that chart is probably the most important think you will see this year.

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The rightmove index is a bit of a joke.

Indeed... Even a casual follow of rightmove shows the pwoperdee coming on at an insane amount, and then dropping a few days later to the 'market' - insane amount, completely and utterly pointless index.

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look at the historical data. the prices normally follow the supply.

Well conventional market economics say the reverse. When supply falls prices go up. If your theory is correct then building more houses will just send prices soaring.

And anyway, the chart doesn't show supply. It shows transaction volumes, which is something else. Certainly if volume falls through diminished demand then prices will fall. If volumes fall through diminished supply then they will rise. That would be the conventional interpretation of the the last few months of the chart.

But good luck with the maverick economics!

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Why would anyone move "up the ladder" in a bubble?

The price difference between my house and one significantly better (30-40% larger and in a nicer location) is about £350k.

Crash prices by 60% and I'd move tomorrow.

Edited by Timak

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Well conventional market economics say the reverse. When supply falls prices go up. If your theory is correct then building more houses will just send prices soaring.

And anyway, the chart doesn't show supply. It shows transaction volumes, which is something else. Certainly if volume falls through diminished demand then prices will fall. If volumes fall through diminished supply then they will rise. That would be the conventional interpretation of the the last few months of the chart.

But good luck with the maverick economics!

Sorry, I mean transactions not supply .

I'd love to see your "facts" when prices detach from "transation volumes".

The main pointer to you talking **** is the fact that prices are insane relative to any measure.

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Why would anyone move "up the ladder" in a bubble?

The price difference between my house and one significantly better (30-40% larger and in a nicer location) is about £350k.

Crash prices by 60% and I'd move tomorrow.

It's moving up the pyramid ( using the ladder ).

You are spot on though, I think we are seeing the death of the housing market. Several people have said to me recently that they can't afford to move to a bigger place now.

It's just gotten plain silly.

If it wasn't so tragic I would laugh.

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Here is some transaction data from HMRC, July 2015 (the next version is due out tomorrow)

From this website https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/property-transactions-in-the-uk

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/454594/UK_Tables_Aug_2015__cir_.pdf

Of particular note to me was Section 4, Chart 4A is in the document linked above

"The long term movement in the number of residential property transactions shown in Chart 4A reflects the general performance of the housing market over the past nine years. The clearest feature of the time series is the sharp fall in residential transactions at the end of 2007, coinciding with the housing market slump and credit crunch. Prior to this point, the number of transactions had risen constantly over a number of years to reach a peak of around 150,000 per month.

Since December 2008, there was a slow but steady upward trend in the seasonally adjusted count. Since February 2014 the number of seasonally adjusted transactions has broadly stabilised at around 100,000 per month..

The seasonally adjusted transaction estimate shows a distinct peak at December 2009. This is associated with the end of the Stamp Duty Land Tax 'holiday', during which the lower tax threshold was temporarily raised to £175,000. The forestalling effects of this 'holiday' coming to an end also show as higher than normal transactions in the previous few months as homebuyers brought forward their purchases. There is a corresponding drop in the early months of 2010.

There is another, smaller, peak and trough in March and April 2012 due to the ending of the SDLT first time buyers' relief. This relief was in effect from 25 March 2010 to 24 March 2012 inclusive. Around 7,000 transactions per month benefitted from this relief, although this number doubled in its final month.

Comparison of the not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted data in Chart 4A shows that activity in the residential housing market is strongest in the summer months with a clear low point around the end of the calendar year"

Edited by pipllman

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Sorry, I mean transactions not supply .

I'd love to see your "facts" when prices detach from "transation volumes".

The main pointer to you talking **** is the fact that prices are insane relative to any measure.

I'm not really sure what you're saying? Are you saying that prices will fall when transaction volumes are down for any reason, even if it's due to constrained supply?

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The market is completely dysfunctional. I think were at or close to the point now where some action needs to be taken just to get things moving again. They either have to introduce yet more props and make borrowing easier, or kick the props away and let gravity do its thing.

I will never underestimate the sheer gutlessness of Osborne and Cameron. HTB Infinity may be just around the corner.

Surely they can't be that stupid, can they?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-3243183/Government-s-flagship-Help-Buy-scheme-pushed-house-prices-nearly-10k-Shelter-claims.html

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I've seen a lot go UO or Sold in my area, and a fair few suddenly went under offer on Black Monday (Yes o.k. then we will reluctantly accept your low offer, you are very lucky we need to move quickly...).

The markets are shaky, owners are probably shaky. Buying now is asking for trouble, but some buyers do not follow markets, they follow affordability. Although if I was a bank, I would not enjoy lending when things look as bleak as they do now, so I imagine they have tightened the lending criteria in the last couple of months which would see a bunch more sales fall through. May not, but I'd guess that's the way it'll go.

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Prior to this point, the number of transactions had risen constantly over a number of years to reach a peak of around 150,000 per month.

Just people buying a property, giving it a lick of magnolia, then selling it a couple of months later for a higher price. You've gotta laugh.

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Down 1.3% m on m

Obviously of no interest to business and economy media today.

NB. Belying their spin headline, Nov 2007 was also a small drop... With 6% Base Rate.

Can anyone explain why index falls 4 points but annual %age goes up?

Edited by Killer Bunny

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