What Is The 'essence' Of Being A Bear?

[paradox]

I really dont agree on this. I am optimistic about most things and was optimistic about the first property I bought.

I am only a bear in relation to UK residential property prices over the next 5 years or so.

I am a bull in relation to many other things outside of the above category. Some overseas property markets may be set to boom as well.

[dogbox]

I'm sure dogbox would have me down as a fully fledged bear/pessiment/life can only get worse kind of herbert.

Ok, in a nutshell I beleive most people on this forum are overly pessimistic.

This is somewhat of a conundrum because history generally shows that the optimists were right.

So I am puzzled as to why so many people subscribe to a generally pessimistic persuaion.

Forget the property market, Im talikng the general thrust of most topics is pessimistic and many of these topics are'nt simply related to UK housing.

3 one (if it could be related to bears or bulls.) Bears would say "god this disease is nasty what can I find out about it Mmm perhaps I should wear a condom". Bulls would say no-one has died of this before I’m going to carry on shagging around and not use protection. The Government won't allow me to die!

6 - True although bear & bulls really relate to a particular investment e.g. Most bears on here clearly would like a property and may turn bullish in 5 - 10 years. There are very few bears on here that would have said property was a crap investment in 97.

3 - WRONG! Optimists said AIDS was a challenge, but one we could easily manage. Pessimists (I recall them) said AIDS would undoubtably afflict millions of Britains.

6 WRONG! I honestly had conversations in 1996/7 with pessimists who to a Man could not get thier heads around B2L. In fact I recall them saying property would only go up in line with inflation. THIS IS THE ESSENCE OF BEING A BEAR.

[Duplex]

I’m a pragmatist, so there!

[dogbox]

I'd be interested to know your view on what makes people do this? (walk the pessimistic path)

So would I, thats why I started this thread.

My guess is that lifelong pessimists dont recognise the description as applying to them as they delude themselves that 1) thier pessimism is temporary 2) thier pessimism is actually realism

Im not seeking to critiscise, just understand

Let me give you a graphic description of a current pessimist;

If I say to a pessimist "stick £20000 on land in Estonia" (and assuming they have no moral objection to speculating) they will come up with all sorts of reasons as to why they think its a bad investment (excluding moral objections) such as "the world is in a bubble that will burst".

THIS MEANS THEY MAKE BAD DECISIONS because only 1/2 of the possible influencing factors are taken into account by them. They subconsiously exclude the up - side arguments.

Perhaps its a form of defence

[dogbox]

I really dont agree on this. I am optimistic about most things and was optimistic about the first property I bought.

I am only a bear in relation to UK residential property prices over the next 5 years or so.

I am a bull in relation to many other things outside of the above category. Some overseas property markets may be set to boom as well.

You sound well balanced.

The perma - bears on the other hand are blind - sided and overly simplistic as bears throughout history have been.

CHINA = CHALLENGE AND COPE to a well balanced thinking person

CHINA = LAY DOWN AND DIE to the pessimist

[CrashIsUnderWay]

I'm totally optimistic you ballsacksniffing little clune. House prices will correct, we can all buy tons of property, and pathetic little parasites like you will find out fast that 'germany' isnt such a bargain as you thought it was.

Now. Stone. You. Under. Crawl. Comprende?

edit - misspelt 'house' jeez.

Edited December 15, 2005 by CrashIsUnderWay

[the_duke_of_hazzard]

This is somewhat of a conundrum because history generally shows that the optimists were right.

What a ridiculous and unverifiable statement. Some counterexamples off the top of my head:

- Neville Chamberlain and appeasement

- My daily hope that the district line will work

- Numerous futurologists who have routinely predicted we will live in comfort and plenty and won't have to work in "the future", that we'll all have our own swimming pools

- "The End of History" (Francis Fukuyama) - the prediction that ideological struggle was over and we could all get on and enjoy the triump of liberal democracy.

- The early Christians, who believed Jesus was coming back in their lifetime. When it looked like he wasn't, some of the Gospels were written

- The Russian Revolutionaries, who believed that the only thing between them and communist utopia was the Tsarist regime.

- George Bush and his invasion of Iraq and "exit strategy"

- Peoples' faith in faith healers

.... and so on.

If you think we're pressimists because we think property will fall in value then you're wrong - we're optimists, since we believe property will become more affordable! If anything, you could criticise us for being eternal optimists in the face of years of disappointment.

[winkie]

A bear today, maybe a bull tomorrow, Life is full of ups and downs.

[VacantPossession]

What is the essence of being a Bear?

The meek shall inherit the earth. But apparently not (Thatcher's fault probably).

VP

Edited December 15, 2005 by VacantPossession

[oracle]

+Y2K the bears told us would = economic meltdown

...honestly dogbox,you need to get your computer upgraded or your company will go bust!!!......DOES THAT SOUND FAMILIAR???????

Y2K was blown out of proportion TO CREATE DEMAND!!!!!!!......it wasn't us doing it,it was the bulls(well the smart money wishing to go out on a high anyway)

[IPOD]

My daily hope that the district line will work

LOL! That is not optimism, that is the triumph of hope over experience! Face it, the underground transport network in London is almost 150 years old and it shows. The amount of money required to bring it up to the standard of the underground metro in say, Paris or Stockholm would bankrupt the British economy.

+When cars came along, the bears predicted the Iron Monsters would never supercede the Horse & cart.

These people were not bears, they were Luddites. The term 'bears' refers to people who think an asset is overpriced/will fall in value, not technophobes.

+When Japananese industry rose from the ashes, the bears told us the end was niegh for UK plc

Well, UK manufacturing isn't exactly in the chirpiest of health, is it?

+When AIDS came along the bears predicted millions in the UK would become infected

Millions HAVE become infected....in Africa. Right prediction, wrong location.

[Casual Observer]

Re the short selling - I suppose I'm thinking if you jack in your mortgage - you are selling your mortgage which is borrowed = so shorting the market. (a bit tenuous I know)

Re the sig - Thanks. I would amend the where I come from too - but I'm not allowed to! It would save me from having to keep saying " round here - SW London, Wimbledon"

I personally think HPC should ditch the troll status for LL.

I can't see how her posts are any more trollish than any of ours.

[Gavin]

This is quite an interesting thread because it captures some of the core arguments on hpc.

Dogbox has said bears are pessimists and then doesn't listen to anyone's view that they are not....we are just bears on property.

Its interesting but at the same time a little futile, because dogbox is convinced of this prognosis and no one can change his mind.

We can all be a little like that.

As for me I am a West Ham fan. That meant for years I used to have misguided optimism about the next season, or the next season, especially when we had all the 'great' young players who got us eventually relegated but now those players are at the top of the table with other clubs, mainly Chelsea and Spurs.

I was right about the players ability, but my timing is off because most of them were too young or needed different motivation.

I STR'd at the end of 2003 and have been waiting patiently. But I still think I am right. It will be the weight of the tide water that eventually turns the tide.

If I predicted falling waters at high tide would you call me an pessimist dogbox?

Because that would make me an optimist when the tide is at its lowest, whereas a realist is a better description.

[firebug]

I'm totally optimistic you ballsacksniffing little clune. House prices will correct, we can all buy tons of property, and pathetic little parasites like you will find out fast that 'germany' isnt such a bargain as you thought it was.

Now. Stone. You. Under. Crawl. Comprende?

edit - misspelt 'house' jeez.

ROTFL

[English Rose]

I was a bull when I bought my house in 1992 and lots of shares in 2002.

I'm a bear in property now.

I always look for the downside in things... I always think "if x went wrong, how could I still make things go right?"... which seems to serve me pretty well in life.

At the moment I look at houses and I think yes, I could afford that. If I keep my job.... And if my husband (who has limited skills) keeps his job.... oh and if interest rates don't rise for the next 25 years...

Er... no thank you.

[dunroamin]

did anyone see that article in the T2 bit of the times last week?

"The Pessemists were right!" or something like that.

didn't read it all (was on someones desk at work) but was quite positive. one bit said they're good at business start ups and trading on the stock market. their natural caution means they're less likely to make stupid decisions (such as buying a house right now).

see - pessemism ain't so bad.

i'm a pessemist i reckon. but on the "is the glass half full or half empty??" question.

i would always say neither for very long

[The Moderators]

I personally think HPC should ditch the troll status for LL.

I can't see how her posts are any more trollish than any of ours.

Sorry, we disagree. LL is, in our opinion, a classic troll.

Re the sig - Thanks. I would amend the where I come from too - but I'm not allowed to! It would save me from having to keep saying " round here - SW London, Wimbledon"

Have changed your sig to " round here - SW London, Wimbledon". Hope that helps. [Edit, we note you've changed it back again. Obviously more interested in scoring points in your struggle against "The Evil Moderators" than informing members where you come from, classic troll tactics.]

[English Rose]

did anyone see that article in the T2 bit of the times last week?

"The Pessemists were right!" or something like that.

didn't read it all (was on someones desk at work) but was quite positive. one bit said they're good at business start ups and trading on the stock market. their natural caution means they're less likely to make stupid decisions (such as buying a house right now).

see - pessemism ain't so bad.

i'm a pessemist i reckon. but on the "is the glass half full or half empty??" question.

i would always say neither for very long

Nice one. Eternal optimists will always pick the stock which booms, and therefore always the one which turns to bust.

[Yankee]

Many of u are life - long bears, although some fool themselves by cloaking this with the 'Im a realist' wrapper.

A lookback into history tells us that bears are usually wrong, so why does 'bearishness' persist?

+When cars came along, the bears predicted the Iron Monsters would never supercede the Horse & cart.

+Railways were predicted to be instrucments of the Devil that would result in huge death tolls

+When Japananese industry rose from the ashes, the bears told us the end was niegh for UK plc

+When AIDS came along the bears predicted millions in the UK would become infected

+Y2K the bears told us would = economic meltdown

+DOTCOM bust was to be the catalyist for another 1929 depression

+Nuclear armaggedon was touted as a virtual certainty

+Most new business ideas are dismissed by those of a bearish pursuasion. I recall many a bear predicting the new wave of coffee houses in the mid nineties would'nt last the winter

Life is really hard at times, but being bearish merely compounds negativity.

I'm very liberal socially and politically, which makes me a rosy-eyed optimist who believes in the general goodness of people. It also makes me someone who doesn't agree with a lot of the rants that get posted here. (But, hey, everybody is entitled to his/her opinion.)

One thing I'm not, however, is stupid with my money. Right now houses in Britain are ridiculously overpriced. Although I could buy one right now, I don't intend to throw my money away. As with all the houses I bought over the years, I intend to buy at a price that makes sense. That's not being pessimistic. It's being financially sane.

I agree, however, that there's often a lot of armaggedon talk on here. Sometimes I think HPC.co.uk has a rural Montana contingent.

[Once in a lifetime]

Many of u are life - long bears, although some fool themselves by cloaking this with the 'Im a realist' wrapper.

A lookback into history tells us that bears are usually wrong,

[BusBuilder]

Dogbox is right, this web-site is overloaded with pessimistic predictions and paranoid delusions and those of a bearish disposition and the most likely perpetrators of these contributions.

A quick scan of the forum shows threads with the following predictions;

• Oil will run out (and we are all doomed)

• Nuclear energy will result in massive disaster (and we are all doomed)

• House prices will crash and cause a massive 1930's style recession (and we are all doomed) or,

• A massive recession will cause house prices to crash (and we are all doomed)

• Unemployment will rise massively, cause a massive recession and a house price crash (and we are all doomed) [or pick any combination of those three things in any order -either way we are all doomed!]

• Inflation will rise to Hyper levels if we don't suffer from crippling deflation - either way a massive recession will ... ok you get it right .... (and we are all doomed)

• House prices are controlled by an elite group of "vested interests" who conspire to control the market and bankrupt the common decent hardworking British man (or woman) so he is enslaved in a lifetime of toil (and we are all doomed)

• Gold will be the only currency of the future as the entire Capitalist system is on the brink of collapse - a personal favourite of mine - and the recruitment cry of the Norfolk Militia survivalist group (and we are all doomed).

I also particularly like the contributors who feel so aggrieved at the circumstances in which they find themselves that “ …. Unless something is done soon, I’m taking my valuable skills and taxes to a foreign country … then they’ll be sorry …” [said without a hint of an over-inflated sense of self worth]

I call this doing a “Cartman” the old “screw you! I’m going home”.

Although it all make entertaining and amusing reading, on the whole it does detract from the credibility of this web-site as a lot of it is way OTT.

BTW what is the problem with CIUW? Why is he so obnoxious? Almost every contribution he makes is abusive, particularly when he disagrees with someone else’s view [i have him on IGNORE but made the mistake of reading this thread whilst not logged in]. Doesn’t this behaviour contravene the forum rules?

[Once in a lifetime]

Blah...Blah...Blah...Blah...Blah...Blah...Blah...Blah...Blah...Blah...Blah...Blah...

BTW what is the problem with CIUW? Why is he so obnoxious? Almost every contribution he makes is abusive, particularly when he disagrees with someone else’s view [i have him on IGNORE but made the mistake of reading this thread whilst not logged in]. Doesn’t this behaviour contravene the forum rules?

Probably, but he is still one of my favourite posters.

[dogbox]

This is quite an interesting thread because it captures some of the core arguments on hpc.

Dogbox has said bears are pessimists and then doesn't listen to anyone's view that they are not....we are just bears on property.

I have not, I said some bears are pessimists. This thread is about perma - bears, or 'perma - pessimists'.

Personally I think we are due a property crash, but thats where my pessimism ends, whereas the perma - bear sees doom and gloom in many other arenas such as the China effect or peak oil.

All Im saying is that some of these perma - bears need to step back occasionally and try and view the world in a more even manner. For example, peak oil might mean new jobs for solar installers.

Dogbox is right, this web-site is overloaded with pessimistic predictions and paranoid delusions and those of a bearish disposition and the most likely perpetrators of these contributions.

A quick scan of the forum shows threads with the following predictions;

• Oil will run out (and we are all doomed)

• Nuclear energy will result in massive disaster (and we are all doomed)

• House prices will crash and cause a massive 1930's style recession (and we are all doomed) or,

• A massive recession will cause house prices to crash (and we are all doomed)

• Unemployment will rise massively, cause a massive recession and a house price crash (and we are all doomed) [or pick any combination of those three things in any order -either way we are all doomed!]

• Inflation will rise to Hyper levels if we don't suffer from crippling deflation - either way a massive recession will ... ok you get it right .... (and we are all doomed)

• House prices are controlled by an elite group of "vested interests" who conspire to control the market and bankrupt the common decent hardworking British man (or woman) so he is enslaved in a lifetime of toil (and we are all doomed)

• Gold will be the only currency of the future as the entire Capitalist system is on the brink of collapse - a personal favourite of mine - and the recruitment cry of the Norfolk Militia survivalist group (and we are all doomed).

I also particularly like the contributors who feel so aggrieved at the circumstances in which they find themselves that “ …. Unless something is done soon, I’m taking my valuable skills and taxes to a foreign country … then they’ll be sorry …” [said without a hint of an over-inflated sense of self worth]

I call this doing a “Cartman” the old “screw you! I’m going home”.

Although it all make entertaining and amusing reading, on the whole it does detract from the credibility of this web-site as a lot of it is way OTT.

Exactly right.

The permabears dont recognise themselves as such, which will mean they are'nt making life decisions in a balanced way.

And as for Gold - I PREDICT A DEFINITE DECLINE, real supply is far outsripping real physical demand. Gold is a pure bubble.

Technology and Estern European property are my current bets.

[CrashIsUnderWay]

BTW what is the problem with CIUW? Why is he so obnoxious? Almost every contribution he makes is abusive, particularly when he disagrees with someone else’s view [i have him on IGNORE but made the mistake of reading this thread whilst not logged in]. Doesn’t this behaviour contravene the forum rules?

I'm only obnoxious to obnoxious people, of which you are a prime example. What are you? Some sort of overgeared landlord? Estate agent? Registered llama molester?

On second thoughts, don't bother replying. I'm more interested in the contents of my belly button than the worthless opinion of a craven cracksucker like you.

[the_duke_of_hazzard]

A quick scan of the forum shows threads with the following predictions;

• Oil will run out (and we are all doomed)

Oil is a finite resource and is rising in value.

• Nuclear energy will result in massive disaster (and we are all doomed)

Haven't read this one anywhere. Do you have a reference?

• House prices will crash and cause a massive 1930's style recession (and we are all doomed) or,

• A massive recession will cause house prices to crash (and we are all doomed)

Kinda the central premise of the site, if a bit of an extreme characterisation.

• Unemployment will rise massively, cause a massive recession and a house price crash (and we are all doomed) [or pick any combination of those three things in any order -either way we are all doomed!]

[/qutoe]

Unemployment is rising.

• Inflation will rise to Hyper levels if we don't suffer from crippling deflation - either way a massive recession will ... ok you get it right .... (and we are all doomed)

Haven't read any predictions of hyper inflation, merely rising inflation, which most of us are experiencing first-hand.

• House prices are controlled by an elite group of "vested interests" who conspire to control the market and bankrupt the common decent hardworking British man (or woman) so he is enslaved in a lifetime of toil (and we are all doomed)

Apart from the "elite group" this is correct, if again a little yhyperbolic.

• Gold will be the only currency of the future as the entire Capitalist system is on the brink of collapse - a personal favourite of mine - and the recruitment cry of the Norfolk Militia survivalist group (and we are all doomed).

Haven't heard this one on here. Merely that gold will rise in value as western currencies lose currency (which it has).

BTW what is the problem with CIUW? Why is he so obnoxious? Almost every contribution he makes is abusive, particularly when he disagrees with someone else’s view [i have him on IGNORE but made the mistake of reading this thread whilst not logged in]. Doesn’t this behaviour contravene the forum rules?

Agree totally.