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Recession Indicators? - News Stories, Anecdotes, Business - Or Are We Booming?

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I opened a Natwest Biz account last Feb. Went to get a £500 overdraft 2 weeks ago as I did not want one before.

They wanted £50 opening fee every year for £500, £100 if I wanted £1000.

They said it would be cheaper if I had a biz credit card (£36)

I thought it would be good for online insurance, so applied for the card, nothing happened for 2 weeks, so I called, saying nothing was received, so perhaps I should have overdraft.

They now said it would be cheaper to have a £1000 loan at 4.6%, so £46 over a yr instead of £50 fee.

My point is that everything was pushing me to get debt, presumably which they could be created from nothing & then leverage it.

Perhaps it has always been this way.

Finally, the staff seemed overworked & short staffed IMO.

Edited by Saving For a Space Ship

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BRC sales down 1% y on y

Waitrose sales down y on y. Ist time in 7 yrs. And what was 7 yrs ago?

China exports/imports down y on y 5.5%/13.8%

Stock market peaked 4 months ago and likely in prolonged bear mkt

Yellen/Haldane statements

Little doubt we're heading for much lower growth or Recession in 2016

Edited by Killer Bunny

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I agree with OP its worrying how many headlines there are around and that normally means things are ok and its the time to invest. The econommic risk from here that i see is given the fomc statement/Yellen comments this week is that it drops confidence further - we are all aware of the risks mainly around debt, defecits and asia, we have been for years, but if I put myself in the shoes of a business that may have been looking to expand, do a merger deal, start a new factory, try something new (all plusses in a booming society) it is likely that as every day goes by they find it hard to motivate themselves/their business heads to back such projects. This is the real issue/drag i forsee at the moment it further impedes on growth and underwrites the economic outlook lower.

In the UK our stockmarket isnt a direct driver of our wealth and available spend and so Im less worried about that, in the US its much more of a local factor.

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Run a couple of businesses, mainly services (not going to go into details)

Seems easier to get a business loan/investment (banks okay, but definitely more 'business angels' about)

Services to 55+ static over 3 years.

Services to <55 down

Services to <30 dead (but wasn't good before. Probably my service offering, rather than anything else)

B2B not that good.

International dead (no change over 3 years. All Europe. Probably doesn't help that the only foreign language I speak is Greek...)

Bit more competition over 3 years, but nothing significant.

Government trying harder to help than 3 years ago (easier to get business support advice, etc)

[again, I'd say that it might be my service area, but seeing as I'm not going to tell you what it is, that doesn't help. Oh - Nothing to do with housing!]

Edited by dgul

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SSI Redcar looks likes its shutting up shop Llanwern is being mothballed at the end of the month manufacturing must be booming

China's only growing export looks to be deflation

tata steel has been firing a few hundred here, and a few hundred there for the last few years now. Surprising it doesn't get more publicity, but the media "narrative" seems to be the likes of tata are the saviour of British industry.

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In the UK our stockmarket isnt a direct driver of our wealth and available spend and so Im less worried about that, in the US its much more of a local factor.

The global equities correction will have wiped about a quarter of a trillion off UK balance sheets (corporate, household, public sector). Much of this hidden in pension pots. There will be serious shortfalls now on final salary schemes, private investors will be aware of their compromised balance sheets. The knock on effect to public and private sector investment plus household descretionary spend will be large imo.

I would say a stock market correction can wag the economic dog. If we go further on the FTSE 100 (say down to 5000) we are in serious trouble and may go into a deflationary slump.

Edited by crashmonitor

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The global equities correction will have wiped about a quarter of a trillion off UK balance sheets (corporate, household, public sector). Much of this hidden in pension pots. There will be serious shortfalls now on final salary schemes, private investors will be aware of their compromised balance sheets. The knock on effect to public and private sector investment plus household descretionary spend will be large imo.

I would say a stock market correction can wag the economic dog. If we go further on the FTSE 100 (say down to 5000) we are in serious trouble and may go into a deflationary slump.

I don't disagree in the longer term but it doesn't change yours, my weekend/q4 nor our employers it's a mark to market thing in the uk. Ftse lower will not lead to deflation, it's a response to deflation and other factors.

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Speaking as a simpleton, I honestly don't know which way is up any more... people seem to be using the same sets of stats and figures to 'prove' that either-

a) Things are booming

OR

B) We're on the verge of recession.

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tata steel has been firing a few hundred here, and a few hundred there for the last few years now. Surprising it doesn't get more publicity, but the media "narrative" seems to be the likes of tata are the saviour of British industry.

Mostly voluntary redundancies and contractors ,failing to sell Scunthorpe due to attached pension liabilities has put the cat among the pigeons ,think you could well see a lot of people going from that site at some point

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Just an observation.... Surplus of new or nearly new cars on the road, mostly white in colour, white the new silver grey....bought on credit only ~£100 or £200 a month?....use now pay later.....

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Speaking as a simpleton, I honestly don't know which way is up any more... people seem to be using the same sets of stats and figures to 'prove' that either-

a) Things are booming

OR

B) We're on the verge of recession.

You have to make your own decision on whether the trajectory upwards will continue because it is still good value, or has gone beyond value and is in a bubble and will drop at some point. Anyone trying to sell you something will want you to think prices are on the way up and everything is rosy.

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Just an observation.... Surplus of new or nearly new cars on the road, mostly white in colour, white the new silver grey....bought on credit only ~£100 or £200 a month?....use now pay later.....

I hope they not all white . I need newer second hand car in few years

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Some cars suit white

Some really don't

But the price difference can be significant: when I leased a Renault Zoe in Dec 2014 it was almost a 30% premium for any colour other than white and also an indeterminate (but longer) lead time.

So expect most of the two year old Zoes that come up for sale sometime after Dec 2016 to be white...

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I work in a large multinational manufacturing company. around two months ago there was a huge change in orders, plunging us from expected healthy profits into big losses. Sites around the world have made redundancies so we are now just about in profit.

multitude of problems, oil price, Russia restrictions, currency validation issues, issues in Europe, biggest is China.

from my experience the economy is already into recession from about 4 months ago, the factory took a further two months to make redundancies (two months ago) and the stock market started reacting about a month ago. seems very clear the next few months will show a deep fall in stock markets, and indicators will start showing another recession.

I'm sure the central banks are well aware the recession has started and are pulling together plans to try and tackle the worst of the fall-out. talking about banning cash, negative interest rates and more QE.

from a UK stand-point:

- conservatives being in power during the new recession could hand labour the victory

- housing market looks to be very slow to react, won't bottom until we are maybe a year or two past the worst of the recession

- with houses so detached from earnings, falls will still happen even with extensive new props

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Surely we all know where the world economy is going by looking at the fundamentals - world debt is ballooning - no ability to pay back - just pay back with another loan. The UK is paying around £1.2Bn a WEEK* in the national debt interest repayments alone - works out to be £960 per year per man, woman and child in the UK (assuming 65M population). How much is that per net-contributor tax payer? Easily more than £2000 a year. That's with lending rates at record lows. Same story around the world. £57Tn of debt added to the world in the last 8 years. Totally unsustainable. When people talk of "recovery", it's a joke.

* I'm basing this on the following article below in May 2014 when the national debt was judged to be £1.27Tn. It's now more than £1.5Tn.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10849333/Interest-bill-on-UKs-1.27-trillion-debt-to-hit-1bn-a-week.html

Edited by canbuywontbuy

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Surely we all know where the world economy is going by looking at the fundamentals - world debt is ballooning - no ability to pay back - just pay back with another loan.

Well I can think of three options:

1. Debt jubilee / reset,

2. Complete economic collapse,

3. World war.

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For business reasons (ok I was buying cake) I've had to pass by the Lisboa cafe-bakery on Golborne Road several times recently. It doesn't matter whether it's a weekday or Saturday, morning or afternoon, but the place is always packed, inside or out and there is always a queue to get served. Plenty of local Brits there as well as Portuguese migrants

Not sure if this anecdote tells us anything though... apart from Nata cakes are great!

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What will happen when the boomers en mass get ill due to their many years of excess (diabetes / dementia cancer) and have to use their wealth to pay for decent care? All this money wiped out and not passed to their children.

Clearly that is a growth industry. The people providing diabetes, dementia etc care will take the money that was going to go to the children. Note it isn't wiped out, just transferred to someone else.

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For business reasons (ok I was buying cake) I've had to pass by the Lisboa cafe-bakery on Golborne Road several times recently. It doesn't matter whether it's a weekday or Saturday, morning or afternoon, but the place is always packed, inside or out and there is always a queue to get served. Plenty of local Brits there as well as Portuguese migrants

Not sure if this anecdote tells us anything though... apart from Nata cakes are great!

When you can't afford a bigger house, new car or fancy holiday you can probably still afford a coffee and cake.

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