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spyguy

So, The Fed. Will It? How Much?

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0.25% raise.

...and Yellen or one of her team to die in a nasty car accident within 4 weeks as a reminder of what can happen when you don't heed your Masters ;-)

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This will they won't they thing might be more destabilising now than just getting it over with.

They are pretty much in the same position as the UK with near full employment, only the 5% unemployable left; relatively strong GDP and very strong wage growth. Again like the UK which is seeing real wage growth of 2.9%. Leave things any longer and wage growth may pick up further.

The only reason to hold off is to save emerging economies and capital flight might become a stampede into the mighty dollar. Global destabilsation might come back to bite if the EMs completely fall apart,

Markets are pricing in a 30% chance.

Edited by crashmonitor

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I note the OECD is becoming alarmed at the US mini boom and is advising the Fed to get on with it. That in contrast to the World Bank and IMF that is siding with the EMs.

Edited by crashmonitor

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There is no recovery of any kind (apart from vast increases in debt).

The charts below are using the FED's own figures.

20150916_obo_0.jpg

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-16/obamas-recovery-just-9-charts

Debt = spending broght forward.

Bring all the spending forward and the people at the top of the pile right now profit massively.

What follows is a depressionary black hole while people are made pay the money back or the debt bubble collapses.

The end is neigh.

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what are u guys talking about? its a no, it is down, it will go up when the dollar starts to drop fast so their will be a currency war between uk germany and usa and any others that have been delaying the inevitable, if it was to go up by say 0.25-0.5% they will be pulling the rug under your eyes as that would make it drop into negitive faster and harder in six months time. the only way its gona go up and stay up is if usa open the borders to mexico...

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Debt = spending broght forward.

Bring all the spending forward and the people at the top of the pile right now profit massively.

What follows is a depressionary black hole while people are made pay the money back or the debt bubble collapses.

The end is neigh.

very nice, nice and simple explanation. in the uk its easier to understand 4 me than the usa because over here we locked up out kids for 2 extra years which would have sent our currency into a nose dive if it wasnt 4 the imigrants propping up the gdp, now as these extra kids hit the market with high imigration is the time for really low interest rates so that they can pay large interest rates back later down the line, ill give it till the imigration figures start to drop off (probbably by cutting income support for 1st 3 months or somthing like that) before a rocket goes up our £'s interests ass

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Just as they wavered over the taper, I'm guessing they'll faff around here. It will be a No IMO.

They didn't waver over the taper. it was nonsense throughout. it was bankers - getting everyone selling USTs so they could buy - and media playing stupid games.

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