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TheCountOfNowhere

Doesn't Feel Like A Crash To Me....

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I would like prices to come down or ideally never to have gone up.

However in London the prices are still crazy houses which were £170k before Nu Labour are now £1million under Blue Labour

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/house-prices/chislehurst/walden-road/?search_source=top_nav&so=last_sale_date&sd=desc

Amazingly a 50% crash would still mean houses are very expensive.

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Just the 1 in 3 listings being price drops.

I do love a thread like this...brings the trolls out.

#StitchedUp

1 in 3 listings on...? Rightmove? Or somewhere else?

Maybe you've just uncovered the shocking fact that EAs often initially try their luck, as well as entice sellers with over-inflated valuations.

I'd be more interested in hard data - volume, sales etc.

So, I ask again, where is this crash meant to be? Funny how you call me a troll for just asking you to explain something which I've seen nothing to support. I am genuinely interested in what you have seen to suggest it, afterall that's what this site is meant to be about, right?

So, to answer your thread - it probably doesn't feel like a crash as there isn't one at present. Central London looks bubbly and vulnerable, and no doubt if there were further falls there it will have a ripple effect. Outside of London I'm not so sure, as I would think affordability is more in the driving seat, unless we begin to see an economic downtown (at a time when the central banks have little left to unleash) which is very possible.

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Just the 1 in 3 listings being price drops.

I do love a thread like this...brings the trolls out.

#StitchedUp

I saw very little in the post to justify being labeled a troll.

I don't quite get this forum at the minute, it's supposed to be a forum for open debate, by it's very nature that will involve different people having different world views which in the past has enriched the debate (comically at times). But these days, some people on here resort to 'troll' calling as a default response to any view that interferes with their world view. Which kills the debate.

Surely forum etiquette should follow the principles of free speech '‘I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it,’?

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No sign of price drops round my way - however prices do seem to have stabilised rather than kept rising - that said, they've stabilised around very high amounts.

Pretty much everything I've tracked has gone to SSTC but in several cases re-appeared for few months later - but always for a similar price.

What has really struck me though is the lack of new properties - streets I'd been following for years have little to no turnover at all at the moment.

I wonder if BTL is a factor in this - owner/occupiers would create a certain amount of churn as family cuircumstance change and they need to move - but with BTL there's really little incentive to sell unless you hit financial difficulties - (so maybe in future as Osbornes tax changes start to bite)

I can just see fewer and fewer properties being marketted each year and more and more properties ending up in the hands of larger and larger portfolios.

Still all it would take is a surprise announcement in the next budget kicking BTL again and all this could change very rapidly. I just can't see the Conservatives doing that though and risking a market collapse that could kill them at the next election.

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I see a return to the 2011-2012 period where the indices were bouncing around a figure of 0% growth per annum (which of course involves considerable fluctuations between the performance of prices in different regions). Neither the bulls nor the bears were really able to put forward a convincing case then that things were going their way.

I see the same. Indeed this is what has happened to the average Greater London Land Registry sold price over the past 12 months, with considerable variations from borough to borough.

Which of course is not a crash, hence the mildly deflated feeling that Count is feeling :huh:

A black (or perhaps grey) swan is required.

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No sign of price drops round my way - however prices do seem to have stabilised rather than kept rising - that said, they've stabilised around very high amounts.

Pretty much everything I've tracked has gone to SSTC but in several cases re-appeared for few months later - but always for a similar price.

What has really struck me though is the lack of new properties - streets I'd been following for years have little to no turnover at all at the moment.

I wonder if BTL is a factor in this - owner/occupiers would create a certain amount of churn as family cuircumstance change and they need to move - but with BTL there's really little incentive to sell unless you hit financial difficulties - (so maybe in future as Osbornes tax changes start to bite)

I can just see fewer and fewer properties being marketted each year and more and more properties ending up in the hands of larger and larger portfolios.

Still all it would take is a surprise announcement in the next budget kicking BTL again and all this could change very rapidly. I just can't see the Conservatives doing that though and risking a market collapse that could kill them at the next election.

Its useful to browse houseprices.io and RM for the same area.

The LR sales records show the average house selling is a good 120k-150k than the average house listed on RM.

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1 in 3 listings on...? Rightmove? Or somewhere else?

Maybe you've just uncovered the shocking fact that EAs often initially try their luck, as well as entice sellers with over-inflated valuations.

I'd be more interested in hard data - volume, sales etc.

So, I ask again, where is this crash meant to be? Funny how you call me a troll for just asking you to explain something which I've seen nothing to support. I am genuinely interested in what you have seen to suggest it, afterall that's what this site is meant to be about, right?

So, to answer your thread - it probably doesn't feel like a crash as there isn't one at present. Central London looks bubbly and vulnerable, and no doubt if there were further falls there it will have a ripple effect. Outside of London I'm not so sure, as I would think affordability is more in the driving seat, unless we begin to see an economic downtown (at a time when the central banks have little left to unleash) which is very possible.

I think it is agreed that volumes are way down across the country, including London? Not everyone is going to escape at a bubble price at this stage, losses will have to be sucked up at some point, and the PTB are paddling like mad to keep the boat afloat under the surface. How long can/will they do this? That is a good enough crash, or start of one for me at the moment. I am renting cheaply and just don`t care enough to be involved in all the stats etc. as they move at a glacial pace towards some sort of re-balancing, but I`m sure someone has them and can post up anything you ask about. One of the criticisms of this site on MSE for example is that posters are too easily branded "trolls", so there is scope for different views if this is to be a place of discussion, but I admit that prolific Uber Trolls like Hamish have annoyed me in the past :lol: (not so much now that Aberdeen has started it`s slow (or maybe not so slow) corkscrew round the U-Bend :P)

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£915k for 588 sq ft = £1556 per sq ft

(£35,750 stamp duty)

£4200 annual service charge (like that is ever going to go lower)

£400 annual ground rent

588 sq ft = just under approx floor space of 2 x 40 ft shipping containers

Edited by Saving For a Space Ship

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No sign of price drops round my way - however prices do seem to have stabilised rather than kept rising - that said, they've stabilised around very high amounts.

Pretty much everything I've tracked has gone to SSTC but in several cases re-appeared for few months later - but always for a similar price.

What has really struck me though is the lack of new properties - streets I'd been following for years have little to no turnover at all at the moment.

I wonder if BTL is a factor in this - owner/occupiers would create a certain amount of churn as family cuircumstance change and they need to move - but with BTL there's really little incentive to sell unless you hit financial difficulties - (so maybe in future as Osbornes tax changes start to bite)

I can just see fewer and fewer properties being marketted each year and more and more properties ending up in the hands of larger and larger portfolios.

Still all it would take is a surprise announcement in the next budget kicking BTL again and all this could change very rapidly. I just can't see the Conservatives doing that though and risking a market collapse that could kill them at the next election.

The changes announced already are enough for a sell off, if not a full blown crash, but one could maybe feed into the other? Another reason for the lack of turnover could be that people are just stuck (many quite comfortably because they don`t have a mortgage or are paying artificially low monthly amounts) but can`t sell for enough to trade up to a daft asking price, or can`t get a buyer for their silly price to trade down?

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Back on topic, I'm seeing very little in the way of crash happening. I don't know (or care) much about prime London as that's been out of my reach my whole adult life but what I do know is what's happening lower down the ladder. I'm seeing property in East and North East London continue to sell quickly. I'm seeing first time buyer opportunities diminish - these sorts of properties are selling very fast at or above asking price still.

We sold our 2 bed flat in Seven Sisters exactly 4 years ago for 225K. It's had no work done on it - same wallpaper even but now shabbier - and it got bid up to 405K.

My brother had his 2 bed flat in Stanford Hill valued at 350K in August 2011 (4 years ago) and he has just completed the sale - 600K (asking price), they had 3 offers at asking in the first week of it being listed.

These are the unfortunate things that are happening. It's f*cking madness, it's f*cking crazy and it can't go on forever but IT IS HAPPENING and I honestly wouldn't try to predict when it will correct - I've tried too many times and failed.

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The changes announced already are enough for a sell off, if not a full blown crash, but one could maybe feed into the other? Another reason for the lack of turnover could be that people are just stuck (many quite comfortably because they don`t have a mortgage or are paying artificially low monthly amounts) but can`t sell for enough to trade up to a daft asking price, or can`t get a buyer for their silly price to trade down?

I'm sure people are thinking twice because of the high cost of moving when you include EA fees, stamp duty, solicitors/surveyors fees etc so are staying put and building extensions/loft conversions etc so unless they have to move they don't.

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Back on topic, I'm seeing very little in the way of crash happening. I don't know (or care) much about prime London as that's been out of my reach my whole adult life but what I do know is what's happening lower down the ladder. I'm seeing property in East and North East London continue to sell quickly. I'm seeing first time buyer opportunities diminish - these sorts of properties are selling very fast at or above asking price still.

We sold our 2 bed flat in Seven Sisters exactly 4 years ago for 225K. It's had no work done on it - same wallpaper even but now shabbier - and it got bid up to 405K.

My brother had his 2 bed flat in Stanford Hill valued at 350K in August 2011 (4 years ago) and he has just completed the sale - 600K (asking price), they had 3 offers at asking in the first week of it being listed.

These are the unfortunate things that are happening. It's f*cking madness, it's f*cking crazy and it can't go on forever but IT IS HAPPENING and I honestly wouldn't try to predict when it will correct - I've tried too many times and failed.

The China jitters were the first signs that the Big One could be getting closer, this has been talked about for years on here, but we recently saw actual global market evidence that they have problems there? So many plates to juggle, I can see disaster very close, wouldn`t want to be highly leveraged on property just now.

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Back on topic, I'm seeing very little in the way of crash happening. I don't know (or care) much about prime London as that's been out of my reach my whole adult life but what I do know is what's happening lower down the ladder. I'm seeing property in East and North East London continue to sell quickly. I'm seeing first time buyer opportunities diminish - these sorts of properties are selling very fast at or above asking price still.

We sold our 2 bed flat in Seven Sisters exactly 4 years ago for 225K. It's had no work done on it - same wallpaper even but now shabbier - and it got bid up to 405K.

My brother had his 2 bed flat in Stanford Hill valued at 350K in August 2011 (4 years ago) and he has just completed the sale - 600K (asking price), they had 3 offers at asking in the first week of it being listed.

These are the unfortunate things that are happening. It's f*cking madness, it's f*cking crazy and it can't go on forever but IT IS HAPPENING and I honestly wouldn't try to predict when it will correct - I've tried too many times and failed.

I agree.

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At the moment although London asking prices are dropping the actual market like the general economy is suffering from immobilism. More than ever before it probably just needs a bit of a nudge for it to turn into a real sale price crash with a significant percentage fall - but as always where's that going to come from.

In house price terms clearly London is another Monaco - without the sun, without the beach, without the sea, without the yachts, without the broad prosperity ....................................................................... but with the crazy house prices.

Edited by billybong

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I'm sure people are thinking twice because of the high cost of moving when you include EA fees, stamp duty, solicitors/surveyors fees etc so are staying put and building extensions/loft conversions etc so unless they have to move they don't.

Of course a loft conversion was so much better value before the stamp duty changes than moving.

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At the moment although London asking prices are dropping the actual market like the general economy is suffering from immobilism. More than ever before it probably just needs a bit of a nudge for it to turn into a real sale price crash with a significant percentage fall - but as always where's that going to come from.

In house price terms clearly London is another Monaco - without the sun, without the beach, without the sea, without the yachts, without the broad prosperity ....................................................................... but with the crazy house prices.

China

US

Middle East

Asia

EU

?......

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As Crashmonitor correctly pointed out, the private sector appears to be maxed out even at a give-away rates. The so called economist probably struggles with some basics and maths... And the government has mortgaged the future of grandchildren already. So anything you expect to happen in the future has already happened.

I would love to be proven wrong, but this looks like the permanent state of infinite debt.

It is all about sucking all the wealth from us and the state and turning all of us into slaves. All this has nothing to do with business sense,reasonable yields,etc.It costs VI's nothing because they invent the money on the computer.

When it becomes too boring for them, they will cause a new war.

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running hot down here in East Devon, boomers snapping up houses, 2 bungalows very near me, one sold £360k in 2 months other one was sold a year ago for £310k then new owners threw £30k at it on mods back on at £360K and a bidding war has erupted, again all boomers, (lucky i bought in 2012 guy needed cash PDQ I payed £235k and spend £20k on it,totally refurbing it ,craaaaaaazy

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So, been waiting 12 months for the london collapse and and follow on collapse in the shires.

Lots of price falls on RM but over all ther asking prices just get sillier and sillier.

My barber was telling me house prices are going up....I explained about China etc and he said "holy ^^^^, I hope those BTL scum bags loose their shirts".

Woman in the chip shop saying house prices were going up.

18 year old boy said...cant afford a house but my dad has 4 so I'll be okay.

A baker I know and his unemplyed partner just bpought a £450K new build.

I did some viewing and was appauled at the house on sale for the given prices.

It just doesn;t feel like the expected London crash ( and I have little doubt it's happening ) is cause any panic and quite literally everyone expect house prices to keep going up.

It doesn't feel like a crash...

Count, remind me again, how long can the market remain irrational?

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I went to a few viewing recently. In NW6 just the other week. Vendor was of the ambitious kind, holding out to get full asking price which is more in line with West Hampstead. My initial offer was 30k below, I bettered to a reasonable 20k below asking. It's just not worth more to me. Mine rejected by expiry, yet still no offer accepted for the place (from someone else) on RM. These wisenheimers would get me to be their stop loss. Should I be asked for another offer, it'll be 50k below current asking.

The other place I viewed was in the deep East (E16 ...). Asking 360k or thereabouts for 1 bed. I valued it at 280k + parking, so mis-priced to achieve a BTL yield of 2.5% which gilts over for a 25y term (not even taking into account water leakages, refurbishments, increase in service charges and all that rubbish). So, de facto I want a risk premium to even remotely consider the proposition. Well, my offer 50k below did not get booked.

It does not feel like a crash, but perhaps we won't be seeing a crash across all the segments. For sudden price reductions of 25% for new builds (9 Elms, Wandsworth, whole of East London, from Ballymore's finest on Blackwall to Stratford Massive and the pile of rubble being erected on the way to City Airport, the so-called Asian business hub, yeah right...), those I absolutely foresee. I would happily take my deposit, leverage it massively and then short the hell out of that segment.

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I would love to be proven wrong, but this looks like the permanent state of infinite debt.

It is all about sucking all the wealth from us and the state and turning all of us into slaves. All this has nothing to do with business sense,reasonable yields,etc.It costs VI's nothing because they invent the money on the computer.

When it becomes too boring for them, they will cause a new war.

Summed it up perfectly. The game is changing, HPI = more money for Government in stamp duty. More money for Banks as bigger debts are given to customers, more profits for property developers / home builders.

Before it goes belly up they will start a war. Very easy for them to do, look how easy we are manipulated by FB and the media.

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It does not feel like a crash, but perhaps we won't be seeing a crash across all the segments. For sudden price reductions of 25% for new builds (9 Elms, Wandsworth, whole of East London, from Ballymore's finest on Blackwall to Stratford Massive and the pile of rubble being erected on the way to City Airport, the so-called Asian business hub, yeah right...), those I absolutely foresee. I would happily take my deposit, leverage it massively and then short the hell out of that segment.

I agree that we are likely to see some larger falls in sold prices in many of those areas, any idea how we can short it!? :ph34r:

My experience in West London echoes. Sellers follow the usual path of overpricing 10-20%, in the knowledge they are still likely to get final offers that match recent sales. Hence I don't take particular notice RM data showing 'price reduced'. It has to be matched with actual sale prices of similar properties in the area before you can say there are real falls. Until then, it's just a game of bluff.

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I don't know the area, so not sure what is typical in the area. But at least you get a house. There are more expensive non-prime 1 bed flats, like this one

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/37798098?search_identifier=b69dfaa3b86e55be753592643ee51349

I prefer this as an example of insanity!

How did they manage to take picture 5 - hanging from the ceiling? (or can EA's levitate in a God like manner nowadays?)

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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