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TheCountOfNowhere

Doesn't Feel Like A Crash To Me....

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So, been waiting 12 months for the london collapse and and follow on collapse in the shires.

Lots of price falls on RM but over all ther asking prices just get sillier and sillier.

My barber was telling me house prices are going up....I explained about China etc and he said "holy ^^^^, I hope those BTL scum bags loose their shirts".

Woman in the chip shop saying house prices were going up.

18 year old boy said...cant afford a house but my dad has 4 so I'll be okay.

A baker I know and his unemplyed partner just bpought a £450K new build.

I did some viewing and was appauled at the house on sale for the given prices.

It just doesn;t feel like the expected London crash ( and I have little doubt it's happening ) is cause any panic and quite literally everyone expect house prices to keep going up.

It doesn't feel like a crash...

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I guess that on average, people who want to sell are still not desperate to sell; they can still afford to be patient. The tide will surely turn, but it's taking its sweet time.

At least it feels like there are movements going in HPC favour after all these years.

Edited by btl_hater

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I guess that on average, people who want to sell are still not desperate to sell; they can still afford to be patient. The tide will surely turn, but it's taking its sweet time.

Dunno, most people seem to be dying in their houses now and then they go for ACTUAL market value to some developer/friend of EAs.

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the thing with a crash is that it is, by its very nature, unpredictable in both magnitude and timing

otherwise, it wouldn't be a crash

a house price crash could start in London next week, next month, next year or next decade

no one knows

anyone that has been waiting on one for years has some of my sympathy

anyone that thinks there will never be one has some of my sympathy

anyone that thinks they know when it will be and / or how big it will be has the rest

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My sentiment is that everyone is talking about it, I know lots of people who have bought or are in the process of buying, have sold up from London to move Kent / Suffolk. Every time I see my family / friends they are either telling me to buy, gutted that they didn't buy or pushing their kids to buy or looking at an investment property. Its all over the media and now is the best time to buy before you miss the boat.

Now compare that scenario with other situations, what other times can you think of where EVERYONE was telling you to buy and if you don't you will miss out? Think about it, surely this is the mania phase?

Or perhaps it really is different now, the powers that be have different agenda and we have shifted into a new era - one where we will look back at this and it will be classed as s specific "time" where for example; "people could afford to buy houses and pay them off in 27 years - wow, remember those years!"

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the thing with a crash is that it is, by its very nature, unpredictable in both magnitude and timing

otherwise, it wouldn't be a crash

a house price crash could start in London next week, next month, next year or next decade

no one knows

anyone that has been waiting on one for years has some of my sympathy

anyone that thinks there will never be one has some of my sympathy

anyone that thinks they know when it will be and / or how big it will be has the rest

In real terms the crash is....well...real. So dont feel sorry for anyone waiting for better value...it's inevitable.

In wages terms...it's still to come.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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This time IS different. VI's and government (which they bought cheaply) are pushing the same types of liar loans and propaganda as before 2007,but now computers are much more powerful,so they can more easily (endlesly) maintain the web of debt+ALL the world criminals and crooks launder their money through London.

Never before in human history was a such transfer of wealth to the rich.They have the above tools for it, and sheeple celebrate their new debt.I bet that even the rich never anticipated that it will go so smoothly.

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It doesn't feel like a crash...

That's the thing - you can't put in past tense something that has not happened. Yet. The bubble maybe hissing but it is still radiating to the immediate periphery of London where the prices are propped up by the expectations/transactions of someone selling in London to provide a bid locally. London will have to take it on the chin pretty hard to get the bears excited for real. There are all possible hallmarks for the top in place, but the competition to sell has to intensify to both incentivise cut-price deals and make prospective buyers become more patient if not entirely abandon their buying interest in case of a need for substiantial leverage.

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This time IS different....and sheeple celebrate their new debt.I bet that even the rich never anticipated that it will go so smoothly.

Now, you think there is no limit to debt people can/will take?

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This came to market recently. It's not a typo that is the actual a/p. Insane, yes. Achievable, I doubt it. But as The Count says sellers / estate agents are prepared to sit this out even if it takes them to their graves. The temperature needs to turn up but I can't see that happening with the current political order.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-36265320.html

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Now, you think there is no limit to debt people can/will take?

Debt can go to infinity. They can saddle your grandgrand children long into the future with it.That is how they will maintain slavery long after people forgot about capitalism,comunism,socialism,...

They have the means to do it-powerful computers to keep track of debt and willing sheeple.

As one economist put it (when asked a few years agi for how long will this crap go on): "As long as the electricity is supplied to the computer".

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This came to market recently. It's not a typo that is the actual a/p. Insane, yes. Achievable, I doubt it. But as The Count says sellers / estate agents are prepared to sit this out even if it takes them to their graves. The temperature needs to turn up but I can't see that happening with the current political order.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-36265320.html

Another one where the agent has spent considerable time, effort and expertise to skillfully craft a compelling and enticing ad...

>Count of Nowhere. It might well be inevitable, but its magnitude and its timing are impossible to accurately predict.

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Being held up by low volumes and a very high sold to stock ratio....normally less than 20% but I am seeing circa 50% at moment, the red sold signs everywhere can't have escaped notice. The only thing that is quite surprising is that the high sold ratio hasn't translated to significant price rises on the indicies.

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Debt can go to infinity. They can saddle your grandgrand children long into the future with it.That is how they will maintain slavery long after people forgot about capitalism,comunism,socialism,...

They have the means to do it-powerful computers to keep track of debt and willing sheeple.

As one economist put it (when asked a few years agi for how long will this crap go on): "As long as the electricity is supplied to the computer".

We've actually had a big debt deleveraging operation going on that has seen household debt stuck at 1.5 trillion nominally for ten years now and a real repayment of about a fifth allowing for inflation. Hence we have been stuck in deflation and panicking central bankers have been begging the household sector to borrow on zirp...they haven't.

Public sector has, of course, been borrowing away our future to compensate.

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Guest eight

This came to market recently. It's not a typo that is the actual a/p. Insane, yes. Achievable, I doubt it. But as The Count says sellers / estate agents are prepared to sit this out even if it takes them to their graves. The temperature needs to turn up but I can't see that happening with the current political order.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-36265320.html

It's only three and a half grand a month for 25 years (barring interest rate rises). What's you problem? :P

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I see a return to the 2011-2012 period where the indices were bouncing around a figure of 0% growth per annum (which of course involves considerable fluctuations between the performance of prices in different regions). Neither the bulls nor the bears were really able to put forward a convincing case then that things were going their way.

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Debt can go to infinity. They can saddle your grandgrand children long into the future with it.That is how they will maintain slavery long after people forgot about capitalism,comunism,socialism,...

They have the means to do it-powerful computers to keep track of debt and willing sheeple.

As one economist put it (when asked a few years agi for how long will this crap go on): "As long as the electricity is supplied to the computer".

As Crashmonitor correctly pointed out, the private sector appears to be maxed out even at a give-away rates. The so called economist probably struggles with some basics and maths... And the government has mortgaged the future of grandchildren already. So anything you expect to happen in the future has already happened.

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Nothing crash worthy near me , its bubble tastic fill your boots time

Will be checking houseprices.io for the sold prices but at moment asking prices are madness , one flat listed today 175k one in same block sold last year 125k

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This came to market recently. It's not a typo that is the actual a/p. Insane, yes. Achievable, I doubt it. But as The Count says sellers / estate agents are prepared to sit this out even if it takes them to their graves. The temperature needs to turn up but I can't see that happening with the current political order.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-36265320.html

I don't know the area, so not sure what is typical in the area. But at least you get a house. There are more expensive non-prime 1 bed flats, like this one

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/37798098?search_identifier=b69dfaa3b86e55be753592643ee51349

I prefer this as an example of insanity!

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No debt does not go on to inifinity. It dies with you.

Banks offering 30 year mortgages to 50 might want to check UK life expetancy tables * - Yes, I know this has been changed now.

Back on topic, living outside of London + SE, its not felt like a boom to me.

In facts, its not felt like anywhere like a market. Houses go up for sale, houses removed, bugger all sells.

Owners leave in a box these days.

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This came to market recently. It's not a typo that is the actual a/p. Insane, yes. Achievable, I doubt it. But as The Count says sellers / estate agents are prepared to sit this out even if it takes them to their graves. The temperature needs to turn up but I can't see that happening with the current political order.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-36265320.html

Ah one of those £800 dunroamins from the 1930s that sprung up around London. Here....

http://c8.alamy.com/comp/EFJME1/newspaper-advertisement-cutting-from-the-late-1930s-early-1940s-for-EFJME1.jpg

(£30,000 in modern terms)

A bit of a pisser for the neighbour being turned into a terrace.

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I don't know the area, so not sure what is typical in the area. But at least you get a house. There are more expensive non-prime 1 bed flats, like this one

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/37798098?search_identifier=b69dfaa3b86e55be753592643ee51349

I prefer this as an example of insanity!

£915k for 588 sq ft = £1556 per sq ft

(£35,750 stamp duty)

£4200 annual service charge (like that is ever going to go lower)

£400 annual ground rent

the very definition of bargain isn't it? if you look up bargain priced apartment on google, does that pop up at the top of the list?

nine hundred and fifteen thousand english pounds for a one bed in a tower block....

fair play to the sellers if they can get away with it I suppose

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Where's this crash meant to be?

I see some central London boroughs have seen reductions, but these are the areas with high end property which will have been affected by the changes to CGT and probably reduced demand from rich individuals due to commodity deflation, and more recently the Chinese correction / slowdown - which could indicate they'll fall further.

Outside of central London I haven't seen anything which points at there being a crash?

Anecdotally (I'm primarily based in the NW), things picked up a lot in 2014 - more houses on the market and notably higher in price. They were getting sold pretty quickily; with some appearing to fall through as they came back on, but only later to be sold. Since then there has been a further gradual uptick in prices, but seems to be less properties listed (I'm assuming in 2014 it was a pent up of people selling as they saw higher prices being achieved).

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Where's this crash meant to be?

I see some central London boroughs have seen reductions, but these are the areas with high end property which will have been affected by the changes to CGT and probably reduced demand from rich individuals due to commodity deflation, and more recently the Chinese correction / slowdown - which could indicate they'll fall further.

Outside of central London I haven't seen anything which points at there being a crash?

Just the 1 in 3 listings being price drops.

I do love a thread like this...brings the trolls out.

#StitchedUp

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