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canbuywontbuy

The Chapwood Index

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http://www.chapwoodindex.com/

The Chapwood Index reflects the true cost-of-living increase in America. Updated and released twice a year, it reports the unadjusted actual cost and price fluctuation of the top 500 items on which Americans spend their after-tax dollars in the 50 largest cities in the nation.

Summary: The Chapwood Index is reporting HUGE inflation in the US - average 10% or so YOY - for top 500 items sold in the US.

I found this via a comment on the Telegraph:-

if inflation is understated then by definition growth is overstated.

I wonder if this is true in western countries - the pretence of stagnating costs (when they're really rising) to allow the government to give false GDP figures? If the GDP growth is less than actual inflation, then the economy is actually shrinking, isn't it? When CPI / RPI measurements are so intricately set (can't include A or B in figures, but can include X and Y) it would surely be easy to manipulate the reporting of inflation, therefore easy to manipulate GDP reporting....?

Edited by canbuywontbuy

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....true, and the Chapwood Index includes these - so I wonder if governments severely downplay inflation to flatter their GDP figures? Can "growth" really be unaccounted for inflation? Or is this looking at things too simply?

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so I wonder if governments severely downplay inflation to flatter their GDP figures?

Do you really, honestly, wonder that? :) I believe moving to CPI instead of RPI increased GDP figures by nearly 0.5% with the stroke of a pen.

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Do you really, honestly, wonder that? :) I believe moving to CPI instead of RPI increased GDP figures by nearly 0.5% with the stroke of a pen.

:)

Actually, I really did - no sarcasm from me. I might sound innocent, but I never even thought of the connection between inflation and GDP figures. If the Chapwood Index is reporting 10% inflation (roughly) year on year in the US, you can bet it's similar in the UK and other western countries. Yet because both RPI and CPI cherry pick the items that are used to measure inflation, we're told inflation is virtually zero - making GDP figures look stellar, and feeding into the "recovery" narrative. And yet, it's possible that actual inflation could mean that as a nation, our economy is SHRINKING and in a recession. And didn't they throw in drugs and prostitution as additions to GDP with guesstimates of much money they "make" for our economy as well. I tells ya, this economy is sas-pect....saaas-pect.

Edited by canbuywontbuy

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Put it this way - the single biggest cost that most of us are likely to incur (the cost of buying a house) is not included in the inflation figures.

The single biggest cost is tax(es).

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There been a LOT of hpi/rental inflation in the US. An Osborne-Carney style echo housing bubble in the larger metropolitan areas caused by ZIRP and QE.

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Is there similar index or any reference that describes more realistic inflation in the UK? I was doing some reading about this a few weeks ago and some of the articles I read spoke of higher than 10% inflation in the UK

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Is there similar index or any reference that describes more realistic inflation in the UK? I was doing some reading about this a few weeks ago and some of the articles I read spoke of higher than 10% inflation in the UK

M4 money supply is a pretty good measure.

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