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Back in 2006/7 I was getting credit card offers left, right and centre...mostly from one company...crapitol one.

Aside from the odd offer from my own banks (natwest, lloyds) havent had anything since then.

This last fortnight, no fewer than 3 credit card offers, all from Crapitol one.

Clearly the top is near.

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The top was around April 2015 for the FTSE100 and for the Dow it was May 19th 2015. traded sideways since then before the crash started.

Getting a couples of dead cat bounces and bull traps on the way down now. Should reach the bottom this time next year, with uk property hitting a bottom sometime mid 2017.

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I've just done a 0% credit card transfer for £5,500 over 28months (with the Halifax) even though my MBNA card had nearly a year to run on the introductory (0%) rate.

The kind people at MBNA upped my credit limit from £11,000 to £18,000 last month as well.

With my HSBC, Barclaycard, MBNA and now Halifax cards my combined borrowing facility is £35,000.

Not a bad multiple of my salary (x7) pulling pints. I'm credit rich.

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Looks like a bear building in stocks and all they can do is QE after the event. Remember QE will do absolutely NOTHING for the economy... and HPs...

We'll know soon enough if the bear is growling or abck hibernating. For 1st time in 4 years there is a good chance of a bear.

#turningjapanese

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I had previously called July as the top, but based on my market observations, I think August is going to surprise everyone.

It's still a bull market, and I'm increasingly falling into the camp proclaiming that only a big external shock is going to end it.

Not that I think there are few candidates for the source.

Edited by Digsby

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Banks have certainly lowered their lending standards as I personally know three different people/couples who have obtained dodgy mortgage. One being the mother-in-law who couldn't get a BTL mortgage, so the broker then got here a non-BTL mortgage on a BTL property!

Another couple with high levels of debt, kid due in 4 months and current defaults = 50% shared equity help-to-buy (second hand) approved.

Another couple just popped a kid out last week help-to-buy (second hand) £115k mortgage on joint salary of £26k.

At least when this lot starts defaulting we can squarly blame government policy which was aimed at helping these people from their own self harm.

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Try saying that in places where prices are up 50% and more since then like here. SE

ah, that do chestnut. till 18 months or so ago prices were flat/falling, then the mega London bubble came to fruition, thousands of people with hundreds of thousands of free money moving out of London and paying well over the odds for houses. we've already been told the London prices have been skewed by fraud and foreigner speculators, the indexes in the shires are skewed because of this and will correct soon enough when the London mania is over, which I believe gap already happened

even with the London madness the skewed indexes are still massively down in real terms.

reality seems hard to accept for the southern English. not a good trait.

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I love my area (SE Essex). If this is the top it's been the top for 4+ years at least.

Median local full time wage: £18,654

Median local house price under £200k: £170k (10.77 times post-tax median income).

Areas ANY of the <£200k 130 houses with minimum 2 beds and some kind of garden space within 5 miles of the town center: dumps

There is no way a vast swathe of folk aren't having to borrow just to live day-to-day round here.

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I love my area (SE Essex). If this is the top it's been the top for 4+ years at least.

Median local full time wage: £18,654

Median local house price under £200k: £170k (10.77 times post-tax median income).

Areas ANY of the <£200k 130 houses with minimum 2 beds and some kind of garden space within 5 miles of the town center: dumps

There is no way a vast swathe of folk aren't having to borrow just to live day-to-day round here.

Borrowing to live, on the assumption that in 2 years time house prices will be £340k for a 2 bed. We are back in tulip territory. Money is being created on the assumption of massive HPI. Borrowing on assumption that banks will go bust and deposits will be confiscated. Logical position is to load up on debt. Banks and government are doing everything to support this view. Precarious to say the least.

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Borrowing to live, on the assumption that in 2 years time house prices will be £340k for a 2 bed. We are back in tulip territory. Money is being created on the assumption of massive HPI. Borrowing on assumption that banks will go bust and deposits will be confiscated. Logical position is to load up on debt. Banks and government are doing everything to support this view. Precarious to say the least.

it's 2007 all over again.

it's different this time for strong, the crash this time is so obvious.

we don't need a living wage, we need livable house prices.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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it's 2007 all over again.

it's different this time for strong, the crash this time is so obvious.

we don't need a living wage, we need livable house prices.

And like 2008, the government(s) and banks will rewrite the rules again to the favored group and it will all continue on it's merry way again.

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The top's been called for so long now.

I don't think I've been so lacking in hope regarding UK house prices. Population is shooting up due to economic migrants - who are suppressing wages - economy relies a lot on high house prices, and I can't see house prices tanking more than 20% in a crash. If that happens, anyone who could have bought should have bought (me!). 50% drop - OK, it's on. But that's not happening (IMHO). Without a 50% drop, my permanent emigration is just a matter of time given I don't even have a rosy view of the UK's future in general.

Edited by canbuywontbuy

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Alternative to working. Borrow money and use it to invest in property. Do nothing and and wait for price to rise. This is the prevalent mindset, to use property like a bank account. It is bound to create boom and bust. If Btl is removed from the mix, there will be no buyers until prices fall to 2003 levels. Those with big mortgages will need bail outs, as will the banks. Savers will lose again.

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Alternative to working. Borrow money and use it to invest in property. Do nothing and and wait for price to rise. This is the prevalent mindset, to use property like a bank account. It is bound to create boom and bust. If Btl is removed from the mix, there will be no buyers until prices fall to 2003 levels. Those with big mortgages will need bail outs, as will the banks. Savers will lose again.

What kind of country would it be after savers get f**ked over and have their accounts literally raided to pay for other people's mortgages? You think people will rollover and take that? And if they do, that life will carry on as normal? Nobody would trust the banks with even a penny after that. It would be the end of banking, the end of saving for anything, the end of any kind of functioning economy.

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Alternative to working. Borrow money and use it to invest in property. Do nothing and and wait for price to rise. This is the prevalent mindset, to use property like a bank account. It is bound to create boom and bust. If Btl is removed from the mix, there will be no buyers until prices fall to 2003 levels. Those with big mortgages will need bail outs, as will the banks. Savers will lose again.

Major banks can just about handle 35% HPC combined with worst case situation for so many other things. In isolation with just HPC alone.. looks like 70% HPC can be handled imo. Rebalancing eventually brings in fresh growth anyway as old gets broken up for opportunity advantages for new, leading to growth.

Stress test scenario

Sterling falls by about 30%

House prices fall by 35%

Bank rate rises to 4.2%

CPI inflation peaks at 6.6%

Unemployment rises to nearly 12%

GDP falls by 3.5%

Share prices fall by 30%

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30491161

HPCers beating on about collapse of the banks seem to ignore what renter savers have already been through, in the last 7 years of 0.5% FLS QE smoothing, with many BTLers Forever-HPIers positioning themselves to be the fall-guys, to help absorb bank losses (UK systematic) imo.

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Rebalancing eventually brings in fresh growth anyway as old gets broken up for opportunity advantages for new, leading to growth.

Exactly. It would be like turning earth over in the field ready for a new crop. This holding onto asset wealth is strangling the economy. People don't spend, nothing doing.

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The housing market, or the meaning of life, the universe and everything ?

If we are about to get a dose of deflation it will be interesting to see how long it takes the indebted to realise that zirp might not be a free lunch after all with a principal that increases as opposed to depreciates. Early indications are that you buy now ask these questions later.

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If we are about to get a dose of deflation it will be interesting to see how long it takes the indebted to realise that zirp might not be a free lunch after all with a principal that increases as opposed to depreciates. Early indications are that you buy now ask these questions later.

How does the principal increase under these conditions?

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