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The End Of The Solar Industry (Surprise Move)


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HOLA441

Quite.

Annecdote: i have some friends who were about to commence work as solar installers (moved from cavity wall) they are currently on layoff as the cavity work ran out, they have been offered £80 a job price work to install solar panels on houses, they were working out if they could squeeze in 2 jobs a day to make their money up.

That would mean 4-5hrs a job i.e 2 properties in a 10hr day.

Just goes to show how much these installation companies must be creaming it.

Working under those constraints what kind of job could you expect? Quick access from a ladder (no scaffolding), A few cracked tiles under the panels from stomping around on your roof? wouldn't find out for a while untill you notice a leak then have to wait for return visit to dismantle and fix?

I'd give it a wide berth just like cavity wall, let someone drill your brickwork and pump in some expanding foam to bridge your cavities? No Ta.

My cousin runs a company that installs solar. She was well into 6 figure income for the last few years.

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HOLA442

My cousin runs a company that installs solar. She was well into 6 figure income for the last few years.

Yes it was a one way ticket for these firms up until today, i wonder if they will up the ante with the sales reps out in force as it could still pay if they can install a customer for free and collect the sales revenue from the power companies, their selling point to the customer would be to convice them that although the installer is collecting all the revenue from having the free panels on their roof the property owner would still benefit from a reduced electricity bill (desperate times and all that) kind of like a "rent a roof" scheme?

Maybe tailor their market towards low income households?

Question is do the energy companies "need" to buy this output from multiple private solar panel holders?

Edited by workingpoor
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HOLA443

I used to wonder about the feasibility of a couple of decent sized ponds with a height difference & a micro-hydroelectric turbine. Use a wind pump, so you're effectively storing wind power in the upper pond. Size of ponds would be determined by power required vs. expected windless days (don't get many of those here!)

Years ago I remember it being suggested that you could store solar power by having a cellar full of washing soda. Dry it when the sun's out, then feed water in to rehydrate (exothermic reaction) when it's cold. Logistical nightmare I should think!

I vaguely thought about cheap DIY solar collectors (old rads painted black, under glass) in the 1970s, but the insolation curve for the UK put me off. Naff all heat when you need it.

Water storage systems need vast amounts of water to work:

The energy stored = (litres of water) x (height difference in metres) x 10 joules, or litres x height x 3 / 1,000,000 kwh.

So if you have a a pair of ponds with 10,000 litres (really quite big for a garden) and a decent slope, say a height differential of 10 metres, the energy stored = 0.3 kwh. If you could convert 100% of that into electricity (lucky to get 50% for a small system) that would be worth 4p.

You'd never recoup the cost of installation. Might look pretty though.

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HOLA444

Yes it was a one way ticket for these firms up until today, i wonder if they will up the ante with the sales reps out in force as it could still pay if they can install a customer for free and collect the sales revenue from the power companies, their selling point to the customer would be to convice them that although the installer is collecting all the revenue from having the free panels on their roof the property owner would still benefit from a reduced electricity bill (desperate times and all that) kind of like a "rent a roof" scheme?

Not worth it. The money has moved on. My cousin has moved onto big wind (for farms) and biomass. Same deal as solar - mugs customers have to pay through the nose to have an accredited installation, but then get money back through FIT or RHI. Amazingly, the deal always works out as about 5% roi.

Question is do the energy companies "need" to buy this output from multiple private solar panel holders?

Yup. Mandated through ofgem for the life of the contract (25 years)

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HOLA445

Water storage systems need vast amounts of water to work:

The energy stored = (litres of water) x (height difference in metres) x 10 joules, or litres x height x 3 / 1,000,000 kwh.

So if you have a a pair of ponds with 10,000 litres (really quite big for a garden) and a decent slope, say a height differential of 10 metres, the energy stored = 0.3 kwh. If you could convert 100% of that into electricity (lucky to get 50% for a small system) that would be worth 4p.

You'd never recoup the cost of installation. Might look pretty though.

10 cu m.? Nah, that's a puddle. Was thinking more like an acre each & 6' deep. So that would be about 300kWh stored.

Nothing if not ambitious, that's me!

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HOLA446
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HOLA447

10 cu m.? Nah, that's a puddle. Was thinking more like an acre each & 6' deep. So that would be about 300kWh stored.

Nothing if not ambitious, that's me!

Ah - that would be more like it. Should be doable, but the turbine for that level of power would be quite expensive... as would the time spent putting in the dam / digging...! Keep it under 10,000 m3 and you don't need approval (I think).

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HOLA448

A reduction was on the cards, and expected, anyhow. What has shocked is the steepness of the reduction. It was estimated that by around 2020, solar power would be viable in the UK without any feed-in tariff. What the Government has done is bring those cuts forward. The original subsidy was designed to what most of them do - encourage a particular behaviour. Given the timing of the introduction, you might also see it as a weak attempt at economic stimulus (QE for the masses). In my view the original subsidy was perhaps too generous, but it did what it was supposed to do - kickstart something of a revolution of in solar microgeneration and give the public a stake. A cynic might say, it's easy to see why some Tories would be ideologically opposed to both of those. My guess is that the UK solar industry will go into a serious decline for the next couple of years, and then bounce back again. As others have noted, the lack of feed-in tariffs may actually drive costs lower and faster as there is no longer much of an incentive to have an accredited installation post January. I foresee a bit of a boom in cheap panels/kits on eBay.

As others have said, it won't affect existing installations.

I have solar panels myself - fitted a couple of years ago - when we finally bought our first house. I basically see the payment as a tax rebate, or perhaps a green tax credit (as for sure, being childless I'll never be eligible for any other). There are lots of subsidies to industry and others we all end up paying for - and this is a rare occasion where I've been able to benefit. I can see why if you are ideologically opposed that it would stick in your craw though. I feel the same about subsidies for new build nuclear power, fracking et al - somehow I suspect they won't be as transparently and regularly reported as a nuclear/fracking tax in the likes of the Mail though.

As for my experience with panels - it's been pretty good. One roof tile cracked shortly after installation, and the installer fixed it. We regularly have 70mph gales here - and the panels have been fine. Our insurer doesn't even ask about the panels. The capital cost is on track to be paid off at around 7 years. Our summer bills are under a tenner a month - and thanks to a device called an immerson, any excess power we're not using is used to heat a tank of hot water first before being sent to the grid. I look forward to battery tech improving to the extent that storage becomes viable - but I suspect I'll be on my second set of panels before then.

Edited by StainlessSteelCat
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HOLA449
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HOLA4410
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HOLA4411

A reduction was on the cards, and expected, anyhow. What has shocked is the steepness of the reduction. It was estimated that by around 2020, solar power would be viable in the UK without any feed-in tariff. What the Government has done is bring those cuts forward. The original subsidy was designed to what most of them do - encourage a particular behaviour. Given the timing of the introduction, you might also see it as a weak attempt at economic stimulus (QE for the masses). In my view the original subsidy was perhaps too generous, but it did what it was supposed to do - kickstart something of a revolution of in solar microgeneration and give the public a stake. A cynic might say, it's easy to see why some Tories would be ideologically opposed to both of those. My guess is that the UK solar industry will go into a serious decline for the next couple of years, and then bounce back again. As others have noted, the lack of feed-in tariffs may actually drive costs lower and faster as there is no longer much of an incentive to have an accredited installation post January. I foresee a bit of a boom in cheap panels/kits on eBay.

As others have said, it won't affect existing installations.

I have solar panels myself - fitted a couple of years ago - when we finally bought our first house. I basically see the payment as a tax rebate, or perhaps a green tax credit (as for sure, being childless I'll never be eligible for any other). There are lots of subsidies to industry and others we all end up paying for - and this is a rare occasion where I've been able to benefit. I can see why if you are ideologically opposed that it would stick in your craw though. I feel the same about subsidies for new build nuclear power, fracking et al - somehow I suspect they won't be as transparently and regularly reported as a nuclear/fracking tax in the likes of the Mail though.

As for my experience with panels - it's been pretty good. One tile cracked shortly after installation, and the installer fixed it. We regularly have 70mph gales here - and the panels have been fine. Our insurer doesn't even ask about the panels. The capital cost is on track to be paid off at around 7 years. Our summer bills are under a tenner a month - and thanks to a device called an immerson, any excess power we're not using is used to heat a tank of hot water first before being sent to the grid. I look forward to battery tech improving to the extent that storage becomes viable - but I suspect I'll be on my second set of panels before then.

poss...

POWERWALL TESLA HOME BATTERY RESERVE Deliveries begin in 2016

http://www.teslamotors.com/en_GB/powerwall

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HOLA4412

poss...

Yes, I've seen those - and I'm somewhat sceptical about the return on investment. Given they have a ten year guarantee, they'd have to be considerably less than my current £250/year electric bill - so £2.5K (and much of that is standing charge so I'd have to find a replacement supplier with no standing charge). My guess is that the cost will be closer to £5K over here. Appreciate that electric bill will go up, but I'm also gambling that I can continue to reduce demand through replacement of appliances at end of life.

I applaud the Apple approach to integration and design though. And I expect they'll probably get the costs down considerably over the next decade or so.

If it also helps to put an end to or even reduce the number of automated and cold call solar panel sales calls on the telephone then it'll be worth it.

Just tell them you have them already, and I found they dry up overnight.

Edited by StainlessSteelCat
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HOLA4413
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HOLA4414

Just tell them you have them already, and I found they dry up overnight.

The ones that have called already do (mostly) but there's been the new start ups and then there's the automated calls. With the removal of subsidies hopefully they'll dry up completely now. Before the election they said they'd do something about the telephone spam.

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HOLA4415
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HOLA4416

poss...

yup, and theres a few more players coming onto the market for battery storage too.

one in UK called powervault, and I think either BMW or Daimler have thrown their hat into the ring too(for domestic,not automotive).

the powervault one looks quite interesting,as it also has a built in inverter/regulator so you can hook up most PV panels to it-will even do 60v GaAs Panels as well as the standard 12/24v versions.....however it does seem to lack a bit on the capacity side..they need to sort that out.

Edited by oracle
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HOLA4417
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HOLA4418

Yes, I've seen those - and I'm somewhat sceptical about the return on investment. Given they have a ten year guarantee, they'd have to be considerably less than my current £250/year electric bill - so £2.5K (and much of that is standing charge so I'd have to find a replacement supplier with no standing charge). My guess is that the cost will be closer to £5K over here. Appreciate that electric bill will go up, but I'm also gambling that I can continue to reduce demand through replacement of appliances at end of life.

At the moment that is about right - it doesn't make sense on purely economic terms to go solar and storage, but with a decent drop in price it will do. On current trends it will probably work in about 5 years and continue to get more attractive. Personally I just like the idea of going completely off-grid - think of the possibilities now with decent (4G) mobile, self-contained water, sewage and electric. Decent mobile is, unfortunately, the least likely of those in the UK.

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HOLA4419

Is there any chance of a scrapping or downward adjustment of existing FIT claims?

Obviously I'd say I hope not - and I think the 1/2m+ domestic installations that exist would give any Government pause for thought re: scrapping if they were hoping to get in at the next election.

At the moment that is about right - it doesn't make sense on purely economic terms to go solar and storage, but with a decent drop in price it will do. On current trends it will probably work in about 5 years and continue to get more attractive. Personally I just like the idea of going completely off-grid - think of the possibilities now with decent (4G) mobile, self-contained water, sewage and electric. Decent mobile is, unfortunately, the least likely of those in the UK.

That's a great deal of the appeal to me too. A high degree of independence and ability to manage future costs basically.

Edited by StainlessSteelCat
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HOLA4420
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HOLA4421

Obviously I'd say I hope not - and I think the 1/2m+ domestic installations that exist would give any Government pause for thought re: scrapping if they were hoping to get in at the next election

Is the FIT index linked? could they freeze it and allow inflation to do the work of bringing it down over the 20yrs?

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HOLA4422

29 January 2014

http://

www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jan/29/uk-10-million-homes-solar-panels-2020

Solar energy could be in for a massive expansion in the UK, according to the research from the Grantham Institute, but this would require favourable policies to encourage the installation of millions more panels on rooftops across Britain. Modern photovoltaic panels can generate energy even in cloudy conditions, though they perform better when it is bright.

In recent weeks, the main focus of government energy generation policy has been shale gas, which the prime minister spoke out for in Davos, the annual meeting of the rich and powerful. Ministers have argued that shale gas exploration could be a major source of indigenous energy.

A bit of a turnaround.

Too many people becoming more energy independent and there was a meeting of the "rich and powerful" (no names no pack drill ;) ) just recently apparently.

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HOLA4423

Is the FIT index linked? could they freeze it and allow inflation to do the work of bringing it down over the 20yrs?

It's linked to RPI and goes up every April if I remember correctly. I would fully expect legal challenges if it were mucked about with though.

I guess they could scrap the month of April :D or fiddle the inflation figures (more likely)

Edited by StainlessSteelCat
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HOLA4424

Index linked to RPI but plans are afoot to change it to CPI instead for new entrants to FITS.

(page 17)

This is the full info:

https://econsultation.decc.gov.uk/office-for-renewable-energy-deployment-ored/fit-review-2015/supporting_documents/IA%20for%20FITs%20consultation%20August%202015%20%20FINAL%20docx%20esignature%20included.pdf

It appears that pre-accreditation levels have got them worried, this is developers and installers submitting their intentions to install in advance of actually doing so, appears the levels of pre-accreditation have surged massively, they are going to honour the already submitted ones but i think the whole scheme will be closed jan 2016.

It's 1 of 3 options they are looking at (no1 is do nothing)

Edited by workingpoor
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HOLA4425

Expect a stampede into solar amongst boomers into solar now so as not to miss the boat.

Just heard from two who are taking the plunge. The justification is that the recent crash has damaged their investments, solar is cheap as it ever will be and it gives a 5% return.

I pointed out that the investment was sunk and you couldn't get any money back. That would be OK as by year six it would have paid for itself.

What about needing to replace the invertor. Not a problem 10 year guarantee on it and other parts.

So in that context if you need the income and don't want the money back it makes sense.

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