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Your Prediction Of What The Next Financial Crisis Trigger Will Be

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Timing they say is everything, but it's looking like the next crisis could be about to start the question is what will be the trigger and will the worlds credit markets lock up? The Fed dollar swap lines are still open for the likes of the BoE, BoJ, ECB, SNB so the worlds major financial centres at the heart of the Eurodollar market will have access to Fed dollars if needed.

But what will the trigger be?

China - which is wobbling and the easy answer - causing a global stock market crash

Russia is it getting a bit like 1997?

Saudi

Greece

One of the other PIIGS, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Spain

US

UK

Oil industry

Or another cause?

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Collapse of a big institution country.

What caused it last time?

China is so big it's credit crunch will take the rest of us with it.

All these much heralded Chinese investors in london property must be long gone now, the london mega bubble collapse alone will put the UK back in recession.

This magically recovery is nothing more that lies, deceit and bulls**t.

You can't turn a dog s**t into a gold bar by telling everyone it's a gold bar, sure some people might play along for a while but eventually someone will smell the gold bar and realise, it's a dog sh*t.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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You cant "predict" Black Swan events. Thats rather the point.

But if you ask people some of the them will turn out to be correct in hindsight which isnt the same thing at all.

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Borrowing demand falling away (vs very high asset/housing prices).

Although last time it was circumvented in US via institutional money (after launch of QE) buying up real estate. It has at least allowed US banks to offload positions back to other market participants at good prices.

Borrowing demand falling away, and this time less by way of institutional money stepping in, for a real correction, and then good private money and institutional money stepping in, to pick up assets at distressed prices.

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Corbyn winning the labour election. Bound to send things downwards very quickly. Even though the GE is some considerably time away.

Most people in China propbably think a Corbyn is an old make of British car.

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China is so big it's credit crunch will take the rest of us with it.

All these much heralded Chinese investors in london property must be long gone now, the london mega bubble collapse alone will put the UK back in recession.

This magically recovery is nothing more that lies, deceit and bulls**t.

You can't turn a dog s**t into a gold bar by telling everyone it's a gold bar, sure some people might play along for a while but eventually someone will smell the gold bar and realise, it's a dog sh*t.

'The recovery' is now starting to sound like those joke signs in pubs that say 'free beer tomorrow' over the bar.

It's becoming a semi-mythical event that is always just around the corner, and mustn't be 'threatened' in any way, but for some reason never arrives, like the Second Coming with religious cults.

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It's becoming a semi-mythical event that is always just around the corner, and mustn't be 'threatened' in any way, but for some reason never arrives, like the Second Coming with religious cults.

But the UK has officially been in a recovery since 2012. No irony or sarcasm here. Look at the GDP figures. The UK is in its 4th year of recovery.

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The socially cynical answer:

people being short-termist dicks.

The political answer:

elected governments doing nothing to prevent people being short-termist dicks.

The socially cynical meta-answer:

people refusing to elect governments who would do anything as difficult as stopping people being short-termist dicks.

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'The recovery' is now starting to sound like those joke signs in pubs that say 'free beer tomorrow' over the bar.

It's becoming a semi-mythical event that is always just around the corner, and mustn't be 'threatened' in any way, but for some reason never arrives, like the Second Coming with religious cults.

Has anyone got that link to the front pages form the Great depression that kept saying how the recovery was just starting....itt never did....till they had a massive war.

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But the UK has officially been in a recovery since 2012. No irony or sarcasm here. Look at the GDP figures. The UK is in its 4th year of recovery.

:lol::lol::lol:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2888416/Who-said-crime-doesn-t-pay-Counting-prostitution-drugs-GDP-figure-seen-UK-s-economy-overtake-France-fifth-largest-world.html

"

Counting prostitution and drugs in the GDP figure has seen the UK's economy overtake France as fifth largest in the world

"
The recovery is wholy based on house prices ( IMHO ), house prices that have been inflated using government deposit/guarantee schemes, magix money printed back sub-prime mortgages, an opoen door policy to people willing to invest in London, criminals and the MSM.
If that's a real recovery I'll eat my hat.
Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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:lol::lol::lol:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2888416/Who-said-crime-doesn-t-pay-Counting-prostitution-drugs-GDP-figure-seen-UK-s-economy-overtake-France-fifth-largest-world.html

"

Counting prostitution and drugs in the GDP figure has seen the UK's economy overtake France as fifth largest in the world

"
The recovery is wholy based on house prices ( IMHO ), house prices that have been inflated using government deposit/guarantee schemes, magix money printed back sub-prime mortgages, an opoen door policy to people willing to invest in London, criminals and the MSM.
If that's a real recovery I'll eat my hat.

Taking the drugs analogy to its extreme, it's a recovery in so much as pumping the cocaine addict who was crashing with more and more coke to keep them going is a recovery...but it will still only end in one obvious way.

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'The recovery' is now starting to sound like those joke signs in pubs that say 'free beer tomorrow' over the bar.

It's becoming a semi-mythical event that is always just around the corner, and mustn't be 'threatened' in any way, but for some reason never arrives, like the Second Coming with religious cults.

Or the mythical HPC.....

Although I've always said as soon as China's ruse got exposed I'd start dusting off my bear hat. Unfortunately since the government still owns most of the mortgage book, I can see them throwing babies in power station boilers before allowing prices to correct.

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Or the mythical HPC.....

Mythical ?

homepage.png

On the mythical modern idiot...

What are they teaching young peolpe at skool these days ?

( Note: Also, consider, that graph includes the insane london mega bubble data skewing reality ).

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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But the UK has officially been in a recovery since 2012. No irony or sarcasm here. Look at the GDP figures. The UK is in its 4th year of recovery.

The government is still borrowing 6% of GDP into existance every year. A sizable chunk more is being borrowed by 'consumers' and business. Strip debt growth out before you look at GDP to get a meaningful figure.

Edited by ntb

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My comment was to highlight just how meaningless the word "recovery" has become. It's a government / BBC / Telegraph word.

These days the words 'recovery' and 'depression' mean the same thing.

8-24-15-commodity-prices.png

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Zero Hedge publishes an article stating "ok, we have been consistently wrong, every minute of the last few years. The truth is, everything is fine, and governments will deal with any hiccups..."

At that point, PANIC.

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Mythical ?

homepage.png

On the mythical modern idiot...

What are they teaching young peolpe at skool these days ?

( Note: Also, consider, that graph includes the insane london mega bubble data skewing reality ).

For most people (especially typical ftbs after typical ftp properties) yes.

We need a proper correction, at least 50% nominal reduction before plateauing out over many years.

Unfortunately I'm guessing this would involve another banking crisis and savings being wiped out (imho of course).

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The government is still borrowing 6% of GDP into existance every year. A sizable chunk more is being borrowed by 'consumers' and business. Strip debt growth out before you look at GDP to get a meaningful figure.

100% agree - and our current debt burden costs around £1.2Bn a week in interest repayments - and rising. Still, I guess we could borrow more to keep the "recovery" going....

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Cheap oil. In the past it's tended to spark of unrest/events/wars and in turn they can trigger financial crises.

It could quite easily be headed back down to the 20$ a barrel level - maybe even soon.

Just to add that when the oil price was last considered cheap for any length of time interest rates were then much higher. Actually there might not be a specific trigger event itself except that cheap oil might be considered a trigger and imply higher interest rates. That would lead to restructuring as suggested was necessary recently by the BIS (partly because low interest rates were becoming a problem) - which would of course involve some turmoil.

Edited by billybong

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