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North Sea Oil Revenues Fall By 75% In The First Three Months Of 2015

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-34029862

North Sea oil revenues in the first three months of 2015 were down 75% on the previous quarter, the Scottish Conservatives have said.

The Scottish government's quarterly national accounts show that the amount received in tax receipts between January and March was £168m.

This was down from £742m oil revenues in the final three months of 2014.

Finance Minister John Swinney said oil was a bonus - not the basis of the economy.

The industry has suffered from the collapse of global oil prices, which have tumbled sharply since June last year.

'Wildly wrong'

The Scottish Conservatives said the figures for Scotland's geographical share of oil revenues, which they claimed were "buried" in a table in a report, showed "how wildly wrong" the SNP's pre-referendum calculations had been.

The Tories said the figures also further demonstrated the case against full fiscal autonomy for Scotland - an SNP policy.

A staggering collapse if accurate. I wonder whats happening to Treasury revenues from oil in all this?

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Finance Minister John Swinney said oil was a bonus - not the basis of the economy.

Everyone knows the basis of the economy is crazy house prices and debt.

Edited by billybong

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as well as the price of oil falling, the oilcos will - where they can - scale back production at their more expensive (in terms of cost of getting it out of the ground) sites

some of those are, iirc, in the north sea

price down, volume down = tax down

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I think you'll find north sea oil contributes significantly to both tax take and exports, well did..

PRT has not been a big tax contributor for years.

Even before the price crash it only generated about a couple of billion in tax revenues for the Treasury. Compared to actual fuel duty the take is small and sterling has not been a petro-currency for over a decade. The chancellor also gets a higher Corporation Tax rake off from oil but only if the companies trade profitably.

Edited by stormymonday_2011

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Those figures are pretty extreme, we new there were problems with North Sea oil...but a 75% decline??!!

There is a lot of infrastructure originally put in, in the 70s, that is now coming to the end of its life, replacing it will be mega expensive and no oil company will do the replacing when we are at 40 dollar oil.

Can't wait to hear people calling for a North Sea oil bail out!

(Edit, its a 75% tax revenue reduction, not total revenue, still pretty extreme though, would be interesting to see what the reduction was in physical barrels pumped)

Edited by reddog

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Mr Salmond and Ms Sturgeon must be feeling very lucky at the moment.

Good call from the Badger on all of that in the referendum debates last summer!

Had Scotland voted for Independence last Sept, I'm sure the politician's would be cranking up the printing presses today...oil down, stocks down, deflation on the doorstep....

Just like every other govt in Western Europe and beyond.

In a sense, it could vindicate a future argument for Independence. Oil revenues would be viewed as a "bonus" and not the basis of the Scottish economy. Which is the right way to look at it, imo.

The general public will also see that all the Unionist parties scaremongering ... re. the economy in an oil revenue slump, was bluff. I suspect Osbourne and co. won't be announcing any massive bailout for Scotland and the oil industry soon.....

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My back of envelope calculation of Scotland's wind power, Q1, 2015 (based on a £44,000 wholesale electricity per GWh) is that Scotland generated 4,452 GWh x £44,000 worth of electricity ie. £ 190 million for Q1

About equal to the loss in oil revenue. Possibly a good diversification policy.

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My back of envelope calculation of Scotland's wind power, Q1, 2015 (based on a £44,000 wholesale electricity per GWh) is that Scotland generated 4,452 GWh x £44,000 worth of electricity ie. £ 190 million for Q1

About equal to the loss in oil revenue. Possibly a good diversification policy.

They'll be pro-nuclear before you know it.

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The general public will also see that all the Unionist parties scaremongering ... re. the economy in an oil revenue slump, was bluff. I suspect Osbourne and co. won't be announcing any massive bailout for Scotland and the oil industry soon.....

Utterly STAGGERING that the bulk of Salmond's argument for Independence was largely based on oil being a 'conservative' $113 a barrel...and you mention 'Unionist parties scaremongering.' Er...perspective, anyone? What planet are you on? Why isn't ANYONE challenging the SNP about this huge black hole in their figures? The BBC are scared, they've showed that. The SNP are brilliant at passive aggressiveness, I'll give em that.

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Everyone knows the basis of the economy is crazy house prices and debt.

by everyone, do you mean, no one?

most people don't know they have been enslaved by the banks, not sure many of them have worked not what's actually going on.

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how is the Aberdeen housing market doing?

Hmmm. Now there's a thought. Aberdeen houses.

I could be an English benefit tourist and get a job up there. (Free university for my kids).

It is actually financially worth it ...

They'll be pro-nuclear before you know it.

Yeah, I'm pro nuclear and wind/solar/tidal

.... Until I digested the eye watering cost of Hinckley point C. Some palms must have been greased there. That cost is a lot of home insulation, solar and wind (or 50GW of gas generation)

Edited by voidal

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Hmmm. Now there's a thought. Aberdeen houses.

I could be an English benefit tourist and get a job up there. (Free university for my kids).

It is actually financially worth it ...

Yeah, I'm pro nuclear and wind/solar/tidal

.... Until I digested the eye watering cost of Hinckley point C. Some palms must have been greased there. That cost is a lot of home insulation, solar and wind (or 50GW of gas generation)

Remember, nuclear investment is massively front loaded with comparatively small running costs. The life cost calculations will also be done with a pessimistic operating life, and Hinkley C being a landmark UK project will obviously cost more. A lot of expense is needed to 'anglicise' the designs to satisfy the regulators. I think the overall costs won't be as eye-watering as they first appear.

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by everyone, do you mean, no one?

most people don't know they have been enslaved by the banks, not sure many of them have worked not what's actually going on.

I'm sure you realise the everyone bit was sort of a joke a half joke, although many a true word is often spoken in jest. Swinney making out that oil was almost matterless to the UK's tiger economy. I'll bet he says something like that about most every important contributor to the UK economy apart from banks, debt and housing.

A lot more people than no one know they've been enslaved by the banks and have a fair idea of what's going on now even if not fully aware of /interested in all the details/ramifications.

Edited by billybong

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how is the Aberdeen housing market doing?

Still very overvalued however...

* Rental values contracted last quarter by 3.8% (which went unreported by the media...). From what I hear and see it seems like the pace of this has really picked up this quarter. And I would not be surprised to see a drop of 10%+ this quarter as rental values are really starting to work through now. Have a look on Citylets, there are now more Aberdeen rentals available right now than in Glasgow and Edinburgh. Which given the size of Aberdeen tells you all you need to know. I hear there are many contractors who had weekday properties in Aberdeen (mainly flats) that have thought since they were laid off and left the city will just rent out the flat instead of selling. However this has flooded the rental market at the same time as people are leaving. The rental market is about to pan... Many BTL surely cannot survive long on their mortgages without rent which means the sale market should be flooded at some point...

* which leads me on to the sale market. I don't think I have ever seen so many properties on ASPC before. However flats do still seem to be selling in some areas, and the EA keep on pointing out this will hold up the market, which is bull because as I said above the rentals are about to pan and flood the market for sale. The high end market has by the looks of it almost collapsed in demand, however the prices so far in reports are static. Again I'd look to Q3 for drops.

There are also quite a few off plan flats and houses coming up for resale as people have lost their jobs... They ain't shifting. There are many flats about to be completed towards the end of the year and I think the oil industry hasn't seen the worst yet.

In short, hasn't collapsed yet, but media and EA saying "this time it is different" and property is underpinned. All rubbish, it looks from here like it will start to pan when Q3 statistics come out and will be bloodbath by the time mortgage defaults and layoffs come into next year.

I am waiting for 30% drop before I consider buying in... I don't see this as unlikely.

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Also interesting to note Aberdeen has had a huge increase in "at risk" mortgages.

It is not going to be pretty...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/11382747/Risky-mortgages-leap-in-Aberdeen-as-oil-slump-hits-North-Sea.html

great info.

for all them poor trolls out there, that's how you join the I

house price party.

Aberdeen was built on oil, take that away and you are left with a freezing cold, grey, miserable city no one has any real reason to stay in.

it's oil tank time

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Utterly STAGGERING that the bulk of Salmond's argument for Independence was largely based on oil being a 'conservative' $113 a barrel...and you mention 'Unionist parties scaremongering.' Er...perspective, anyone? What planet are you on? Why isn't ANYONE challenging the SNP about this huge black hole in their figures? The BBC are scared, they've showed that. The SNP are brilliant at passive aggressiveness, I'll give em that.

Indeed. Look, ive nothing against the scots, and actually think independence could be good for them in the long run. I like decentralization, its one of the reasons I hate the EU so much. But the SNP embody everything that is lazy and wrong with the current left. Be it prior to 2007 when Salmond was saying he'd copy Iceland economic model (yeah, that went well) or Sturgeons "no chance oil will ever go below $100 again" Its the amateurism that gets me too...the shock of Senior SNP figures when Barroso says they wont 'just get let in the EU' or the Northern Islanders saying actually, most of its our oil. Do they not contemplate these possibilities?

The SNP are good for Scotland as long as the union exists...they can extort england whenever there is a leftwing government UK wide. After independence, the SNP would be shown up for what they are, blackmailers...nothing more. I doubt they'd even last as long as SYRIZA in Greece before they folded. At least SYRIZA has some cool heads in it.

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by everyone, do you mean, no one?

most people don't know they have been enslaved by the banks, not sure many of them have worked not what's actually going on.

Perhaps you can donate all your savings to the owner side directly then.

I'm sick of this argument when owner side is sat on £Trillions of pounds in equity, and renter side been utterly hammered. When buyer side been paying ever higher prices. When BTLer side smugly buying more properties at higher prices.

How about HPC for once Count. It hasn't been going on for years (hpc)... it's been double bubble in many area. Buyers make their own decisions. They can see the price. Not got any idea of whats going on? As they go to viewings, apply for big mortgages? Come off it. We all want to buy a home. It's a market, not a protect the latest buyers at peak price all of the time.

True, but it's also a market for one of the few things you actually need in life (a roof over your head), especially when you have a family, which does often push people to borrow 'that bit more' in the hope of a stable life as opposed to renting.

Commercial was released towards old peak on the US market.

'They just wanted a home' (outbidding others by fortunes).

UK it's the same around here, 2007 + 30% and buyers been pushing and falling over themselves to pay ever higher prices last few years.

Go tell it to Mr.Aberdeen from MSE, who now has a few BTLs from upsizing, and recently built himself a house at £350,000... in his mid 30s. Lap up his reasoning as a victim. More debt = more gain from future HPI. He's made his own market decisions.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/48163-aberdeen-aspc-stats/?p=1102778625

Just one of his HPI forever posts vs dumb renters.

IveSeenTheLight

12-12-2014

I've shown a number of times and a long time ago how increasing prices can speed up the move to the next level of property.

Simplistically putting it. Trying to move from a £100k flat to a £200k home, with only 10% equity, means they need to save up and additional £10k deposit on top of the equity to maintain the 10% deposit for the home.

If the flat increased to £150, then they have £60k deposit, which would provide a 20% deposit for the home, without having to save any additional deposit. to get the same 20% deposit on the £200k property, they would have needed to save up an additional £30k whilst living in the flat.

The difference in mortgage repayments would be £333 per month on a 4% mortgage or 7.5 years savings

Now, yes, they are borrowing more, but many people factor that in to getting the next rung 7.5 years earlier and fixing in any future HPI

http://forums.moneys...t=#post67210938

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Without the oil, Aberdeen is cow/sheep farming area, and a University (two actually). One of my ex-colleague's work finished up there last Christmas, and he sold up. :blink: Back to England now. Aberdeen is not a bad place to live, except for the weather.

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