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TheCountOfNowhere

Ftse Watch

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Would have thought the time for shorting was at the top of the market not at an eight month low. No doubt some shorters have made some big money since June and may be looking to realise the profit.

Could be wrong, we might be in for another 2009, incidentally few people remember that the sub 3500 in Q1 was quickly unwound to 6000 by 31 December that year. So may be capitulation isn't always the answer.

Edited by crashmonitor

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The significance of this market meltdown is interest rate rises are off unless we get a quick recovery and this is just August madness.

Wise people have been advising heavily there won't be a rise. Their busy bodying show has been amazing though.

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The significance of this market meltdown is interest rate rises are off unless we get a quick recovery and this is just August madness.

Have interest rate rises ever actually been on?

I would say not.

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The Dow is breaking down through it's multiyear up-trend defined by the 2011 and 2012 lows. If it breaks below 17140 that will add more fuel to the fire.

dowbreakdown.jpg

post-34896-0-83255900-1440061120_thumb.jpg

Edited by ManVsRecession

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One of my in laws declared a few months ago how much their investment in the FTSE had gone up since turning his back on his savings ago.

It's gone back down again now.

The only people making easy money are the spivs and shysters running the casino.

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Have interest rate rises ever actually been on?

I would say not.

Mrs Akerlof seemed to think she could get away with it, the trouble with forward guidance is it doesn't take into account what other countries are doing. She will be very brave now to raise on a correcting equity market , a renminbi devaluation and an oil price collapse.

The weird thing is that none of these factors actually harm UK plc, an indebted country, that relies on imports and cheap energy; even it's equity market is international not domestic. You can almost imagine the country going on regardless, as indeed it appears to be doing, at the top of the G7 for growth until it inevitably bursts on all this cheap money and imports.

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Similar to this year's closing low on 6th January 2015 ...then 6366, more or less where we are trading now.

At that stage we had dived into phase two of the oil shock and on that day Brent dipped below $50 for the first time. The initial oil shock occurred in December when the market tanked to 6079 at one point even though Brent was trading at $60.

May be this will be third time lucky for the Bears as we enter oil shock phase three, but it shows how quickly the Market can bounce too (7122 a mere four months later).

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Today's the day for for my monthly purchase. I managed to force myself to do this during 2009 but it gets harder as I get older! ULVR for a top up, I think.

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Today's the day for for my monthly purchase. I managed to force myself to do this during 2009 but it gets harder as I get older! ULVR for a top up, I think.

It is in a nice uptrend, and drip feeding into that is probably best over the long term - the price is quite choppy/volatile.

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6,314.67

That is all.

I think this level must be particularly pleasing to those that stuck with cash through thick and thin. Bruce Banner, yourself ?

Ok there have been timing opportunities, most notably in 2003 and 2009, when there were decent returns.

Indeed we are stuck in a 16 year nominal trough, so those that think the FTSE is in some kind of bubble couldn't be further from the truth.

Its supporters will point to dividends but that's probably averaged 3% over 16 years, more like 2-2.5% on a tracker. Meanwhile fixed rate bonds have been as high as 7% as late as 2007, with early maturity options so it's instant cash just like shares.

Basically if you STRed in about 2007 you would have avoided bombing on property (London excepted) the Halifax index has barely moved in eight years, bombed on pms and bombed on equites. Cash has done pretty well, bonds have done stupendously.

In fact the biggest bubble in the history of mankind now lies in the bond market with negative real yields.

Two telling points over what has transpired over the last 16 years which have left the experts with egg on their face.....

(1) Equities always win in the long run......fail.

(2) Time not timing...you've got to be kidding........Timing not time.

Edited by crashmonitor

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I think this level must be particularly pleasing to those that stuck with cash through thick and thin. Bruce Banner, yourself ?

Yeah, probably a bit, it makes you realise that nothing really beats the long term average and as you sit and watch all the smart a**rses telling you how much money they are making and it's different this time, you can kind of sit back and think...I knew this would happen.

Same with house prices,

have a look at the 3 properties I listed on @ShiresCrashing today. The prices are insane. Really, what do people think is going to happen next, FFS.

I feel a tad sorry for people buying into it this "get rich quick" culture, even for them trying to pile into BTL now as it's the only show in town. If you're 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, 20 years too late, it's best to just sit back and watch.

The spivs make their money regardless that's the reason I dont (often) give them my cash.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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The significance of this market meltdown is interest rate rises are off unless we get a quick recovery and this is just August madness.

Interest rate rises were never 'on' in the first place - I guess this might hammer home to the slow-to-catch-on that the 'recovery' is a sham based on cheap money and that any attempt to make money less cheap is going to scupper it.

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Actually it looks like it hit 3530 on 9 March 2009.

And it might again :lol:

That graph says to me, madness. They push to the prices up to irrational levels then let the market crash. Rinse and repeat.

Much like the housing market.

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Actually it looks like it hit 3530 on 9 March 2009.

That's what I'm getting on google as a close, got a feeling it visited the 3400s on at least one occasion in intraday lows during that month.

Also have to correct re. the bounce off that low.....it actually unwound to 5770 by the following April not 6000 by the year end as I said earlier in the thread.

Still shows the unwinding was quick and the timing opportunity fleeting.

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That's what I'm getting on google as a close, got a feeling it visited the 3400s on at least one occasion in intraday lows during that month.

Also have to correct re. the bounce off that low.....it actually unwound to 5770 by the following April not 6000 by the year end as I said earlier in the thread.

Still shows the unwinding was quick and the timing opportunity fleeting.

It's hovering at 6300 now.....

FTSE 100 (^FTSE) -FTSE
6,304.21 down_r.gif63.68(1.00%) 6:44AM BST
Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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