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Si1

Deeply Depressed And Angry. Here's Why.

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Hpc is currently somewhat fixated with the changes to the way that btl is taxed. That's all well and good but the house price crash will never be complete as long as the interests of the baby boomer generation are STILL prioritised by successive governments. Btl is only part of the problem. The boomers are still partying. On our taxes.

You see this in some threads in this forum. Well paid and unproductive boomer academics blocking jobs. Elderly avoiding downsizing but ignoring the social problems this creates, whilst supporting government that fails to do anything to pop their financial subsidised bubble. Crocodile tears in other words.

Edited by Si1

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Same here. As with anything, society reaps what it sows.

In my childhood neighbourhood, neighbours have stolen public patches of grass. The social contract is void. People deliberately try avoid care costs in order to pass property down to children. A wonderfully narcissistic generation spawned to replace the fantastically entitled.

It sounds pretty bleak but to expect unselfish behaviour is now irrational. Game theory with society should now dictate your behaviour.

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Basically, on the whole people are selfish. They will act in their own interests. That is why incentives work. Leading onto democracy, the winning party gains the most votes by appealing to the biggest blocs of selfishness. In our lives that is the boomer bulge. They are not uniquely selfish. But they are uniquely most numerous and their interests have always been pandered to.

That'll be why boomers are getting 3% on their pension pots, compared to older folks (like the 1930s-born) getting 15%.

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It's not boomers, it's the ~60% of homeowners inc boomers who are homeowners. The fixation needs to progress to productive vs unproductive and earned vs unearned. Without the usual faux left vs right nonsense which, if this forum is at all socially representative, makes finding solutions impossible. Hitting income and wealth derived from economic rents isn't socialist, and deriving income or wealth from economic rents isn't free-market. The only justifications are selfishness and greed so as ham says incentives need changing.

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The boomers will party until they drop dead, lets face it. Backtrack on their pensions? Rescind on the triple lock guarantee? Force them out of their homes? They only have a few more cruises left them in and the timescale to put right their partying is going take a generation to pay off anyway.

I have to say I am less worried about the boomers than I am of the "mettle" of my own generation. We are used to renting, low stability, poor wages, crap pensions and high cost of living. A generation of plebs who are so downtrodden and politically alienated that they are an irrelevance to improving their own lot. I read the BBC article recently about lowered expectations, it featured a young NEET who got a job in a hotel (Premier Inn I think), he worked his way up from desk jockey to team leader of front of house and had aspirations to be the hotel manager. He was quizzed about his benefits which he thought was very fair. He was on about £8/hr I think as team leader and he thought it'd be great if he could earn £18,000 a year as hotel manager. I wanted to find the bloke and slap him. Its idiots like this who drive wages down, they have no idea what they are worth. Sums up young people. Grateful for a second helping of porridge.

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I have to say I am less worried about the boomers than I am of the "mettle" of my own generation. We are used to renting, low stability, poor wages, crap pensions and high cost of living. A generation of plebs who are so downtrodden and politically alienated that they are an irrelevance to improving their own lot.

Tell it to Burnham/Cooper/Kendall, Generation Y may be about to decapitate the second biggest party in UK politics because they are sick of being ignored in debates and harmed by policy. Come to think of it, tell it to any Lib Dem ex-MP, Gen Y's anger played a big part in their downfall too. UK politicians are just starting to learn that for every year that passes, the political cost of ignoring everybody born after the mid 1970s just keeps going up and up and up.

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There won't be a HPC for 5 to 10 years - perhaps longer. Who can wait that long? I can't. You have to make your own contingency plans. Waiting is not an option for many of us.

And then when the HPC "happens", how big will it be? Maybe 20% - maybe less. It will be like 2008/09. Big deal. If you want a 20% discount and want to wait 10 years for it, might as well buy now or take a different path in life. Your (my) 50% crash isn't happening, so get used to it.

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Hpc is currently somewhat fixated with the changes to the way that btl is taxed. That's all well and good but the house price crash will never be complete as long as the interests of the baby boomer generation are STILL prioritised by successive governments. Btl is only part of the problem. The boomers are still partying. On our taxes.

You see this in some threads in this forum. Well paid and unproductive boomer academics blocking jobs. Elderly avoiding downsizing but ignoring the social problems this creates, whilst supporting government that fails to do anything to pop their financial subsidised bubble. Crocodile tears in other words.

..in the mid 90's hpc was reversed by the introduction of BTL..around 1996/ 97...and the rising trajectory has not failed since ..a blip due to the over securitisation around 2007/8 ...and of course in London laundered money has been and is continuing to accelerate prices...many non public sector working and retired boomers are paying big taxes ...not sure all the blame is on them ...?. Government needs to tackle money laundering now ..if they don't they are party to it..... :rolleyes:

Edited by South Lorne

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It's shocking how much people's living standards have changed in just one generation.

Free education, gone. Full employment (and unions to fight for you), a memory. Final salary pensions, obliterated. State pension age rising. Housing the biggest mess of them all.

All of it replaced by debt, debt, and more debt.

I really think people born in the 60s and 70s have spent the last decade with their fingers in their ears and on the whole didn't care to notice how much harder the next generation were having it. And now their own kids are about to get a taste of what those of us inbetween have been facing - only turned up to 11. I suspect most won't give up their prejudices and will instead paper over the cracks in their world-view with early inheritances. Never mind other people's children.

And I think people my age and younger on the whole don't realise what they've lost.

If everyone's now expected to only look out for themselves I call that the death of civilisation.

Where did it all go wrong? The post-war generations built a decent country that someone appears to have spent the last two decades systematically dismantling. Why?!

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It's shocking how much people's living standards have changed in just one generation.

Free education, gone. Full employment (and unions to fight for you), a memory. Final salary pensions, obliterated. State pension age rising. Housing the biggest mess of them all.

All of it replaced by debt, debt, and more debt.

Think of all the advances from what 1950's to now. Computers, robots, automation, the internet.... etc....etc.

And we're worse off! Somebody somewhere has been stealing all our work, everyday for the last 65 years!

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There won't be a HPC for 5 to 10 years - perhaps longer. Who can wait that long? I can't.

And then when the HPC "happens", how big will it be? Maybe 20% - maybe less. It will be like 2008/09. Big deal.

So glad in next recession they'll slash interest rates again from 5 to 0.5...

FFS!

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Think of all the advances from what 1950's to now. Computers, robots, automation, the internet.... etc....etc.

And we're worse off! Somebody somewhere has been stealing all our work, everyday for the last 65 years!

Bankers.

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So glad in next recession they'll slash interest rates again from 5 to 0.5...

FFS!

Well, yes

You can't steal what's already gone

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Your (my) 50% crash isn't happening, so get used to it.

Why not?

I'm interested in your perspective, given your confidence.

Firstly, I seriously hope I am wrong.

However, I base my pessimism on the last 7 years. Not just the UK government, but Canada. Australia, NZ and other countries have thrown the kitchen sink at keeping house prices high. They've all succeeded to greater or lesser degrees. It's obviously of critical importance to them. It's the sheer determination of these governments to disrupt and change society - think younger generations locked out of buying, putting off having families, living at home with mum and dad, allowing foreign buyers to buy and leave properties empty - to ensure one single variable of the economy is to their liking. Why wouldn't they do a few more rounds of QE and pump up asset prices and devalue savings even more? Or some new gimmick to force us "bears" into buying at high prices. That makes me think that if there's any kind of crash, it will be like 2008/09 - OK, no interest rates to play with, but QE again, some new gimmicks thrown into place - a crash occurs of around 10 to 20% (from a stupid high), and then the MSM will pretend it was a major crash and we're back to pretending house prices are reasonable again. Meanwhile wages will have not risen and we're not really any further forward.

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So glad in next recession they'll slash interest rates again from 5 to 0.5...

FFS!

Couldn't QE be used to counter asset price drops? (genuine question) - as I say, I hope I'm wrong - I'm just depressed by the determination of several governments around the world to throw the younger generations into an abyss - all overseen by an unquestioning media.

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Hpc is currently somewhat fixated with the changes to the way that btl is taxed. That's all well and good but the house price crash will never be complete as long as the interests of the baby boomer generation are STILL prioritised by successive governments. Btl is only part of the problem. The boomers are still partying. On our taxes.

You see this in some threads in this forum. Well paid and unproductive boomer academics blocking jobs. Elderly avoiding downsizing but ignoring the social problems this creates, whilst supporting government that fails to do anything to pop their financial subsidised bubble. Crocodile tears in other words.

It is not the type or size of house or job people hold.....it is how many they selfishly accumulate and make from.

You rather one person owns four smaller homes than one four bed home?....you rather like some MPs do one job well or like some others spread their time and dedication to other part-time income sources doing no job effectively or properly...many jobs plus many houses is what I would call greedy......anyway all multiple householders and job holders eventually die taking their pensions and benefits with them.....what is left is passed to those left waiting, the new generation...... see how they are up to sharing scarce resources.

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Compared to the rest of the world your still have a very high standard of living.

The economic gaps between countries are much smaller now than they were in the 1960s/1970s when the Boomers first learned this argument. Latin America, SE Asia, China, people in these places now have running water, fridges and mobile phones. Yes there are still 1-2 billion desperately poor people in the world, mostly in India and Africa, but these are the minority and not the majority of humanity.

I work in a very international company and I've lost count of the number of people I've met at work who have moved from supposedly 'poorer' countries in Europe (Portugal, Hungary, Bulgaria) to the UK and been appalled by the standard of living here, particularly in terms of housing.

Edited by Dorkins

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It's the rise of the renters. London is actually at the leading edge of this.

Yep. People with no assets or prospect of obtaining them have no reason to support the status quo. It's amazing how long it is taking the older GenX politicians who are now in power to cotton on to this. Every time GenY give them a bloody nose at the ballot box it comes as a complete surprise to them, over and over again.

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The economic gaps between countries are much smaller now than they were in the 1960s/1970s when the Boomers first learned this argument. Latin America, SE Asia, China, people in these places now have running water, fridges and mobile phones. Yes there are still 1-2 billion desperately poor people in the world, mostly in India and Africa, but these are the minority and not the majority of humanity.

I work in a very international company and I've lost count of the number of people I've met at work who have moved from supposedly 'poorer' countries in Europe (Portugal, Hungary, Bulgaria) to the UK and been appalled by the standard of living here, particularly in terms of housing.

I agree (in my experience). In Thailand, younger educated people are generally living a higher quality of life than their counterparts in the UK - they're family-home-owning, holidaying, having kids in their mid-late 20s/early 30s (because they can afford to), have plenty of disposable income. Like a snapshot of the UK educated classes in the 80s perhaps? Having said that, of course the poor in the UK have a better life than the poor in Thailand (though I'd argue that the poor in the UK have a similar quality of life to the genuinely hard-working middle classes of the UK...).

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I agree (in my experience). In Thailand, younger educated people are generally living a higher quality of life than their counterparts in the UK - they're family-home-owning, holidaying, having kids in their mid-late 20s/early 30s (because they can afford to), have plenty of disposable income. Like a snapshot of the UK educated classes in the 80s perhaps? Having said that, of course the poor in the UK have a better life than the poor in Thailand (though I'd argue that the poor in the UK have a similar quality of life to the genuinely hard-working middle classes of the UK...).

Something else that is different between the UK and middle income countries is that living standards have been generally falling in the UK for 20+ years and generally rising in middle income countries. You can put up with a lot when you have hope that things will get better, either for you or your children. There is very little hope in the UK, in fact most people of all ages fully expect that life will be worse for those born after the mid 1970s than it was for those born 1925-early 1970s. That is a depressing situation to be in.

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Firstly, I seriously hope I am wrong.

However, I base my pessimism on the last 7 years. Not just the UK government, but Canada. Australia, NZ and other countries have thrown the kitchen sink at keeping house prices high. They've all succeeded to greater or lesser degrees. It's obviously of critical importance to them. It's the sheer determination of these governments to disrupt and change society - think younger generations locked out of buying, putting off having families, living at home with mum and dad, allowing foreign buyers to buy and leave properties empty - to ensure one single variable of the economy is to their liking. Why wouldn't they do a few more rounds of QE and pump up asset prices and devalue savings even more? Or some new gimmick to force us "bears" into buying at high prices. That makes me think that if there's any kind of crash, it will be like 2008/09 - OK, no interest rates to play with, but QE again, some new gimmicks thrown into place - a crash occurs of around 10 to 20% (from a stupid high), and then the MSM will pretend it was a major crash and we're back to pretending house prices are reasonable again. Meanwhile wages will have not risen and we're not really any further forward.

The age demographic of the electorate is reaching a tipping point the havenot`s will soon be holding the balance of power at the ballot box ,the problem is as much political as it`s intergenerational.

If /when the BTL sector is made to be unviable the crash will start as BTL and dodgy IO finance has been propping up the foundations of the pyramid and expanding rapidly since the introduction of MMR they have effectively replaced the FTB in this roll as MMR has removed them from the game so logic would say prices at the bottom end of the market could well revert back to local wage levels x MMR constraints if/when BTL becomes unviable

The tax relief rules concerning BTL is a welcome start but it`s IO finance compounded by ultra low interest rates that's the real problem

the latter could well be coming to and end soon (not talking base rates but BTL mortgage rates)

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Where did it all go wrong? The post-war generations built a decent country that someone appears to have spent the last two decades systematically dismantling. Why?!

My own view was that it was inevitable and we're following the same cycles we've seen play out time and time again. I don't believe in cycles in terms of years/timings but I do believe in them in terms of trends. Big money/interests came back to the table from the 1980's. I don't think its coincidental to see a continual rise in the wealth of the top few % since that period and a continually squeezed and now almost decimated middle class. A problem 40 years in the making. In terms of maintaining a standing of living in reaction to this; first people worked more hours, then the wife went to work, then we started to borrow more (where we are at now)...and then we'll go bust. This happened before and the clock was re-set, best example being the U.S (the roaring twenties) after the great depression with the New Deal and a raft of new legislation, this allowed the 50's, 70's and 80's as a time of a burgeoning middle class. I think since the 80's, the gradual deregulation of the market and monopolization of business, lower job security has contributed to what we're seeing now. At first people may feel wealthier but at the end of the day the money has been slowly and increasingly funneled into the pockets of the landlords, banksters and big business. This model can only play out for so long and then we'll press reset and play on again. Unfortunately, you're set up in life depending on that first few decades when you enter the working world, hence the boomers success. Trends take such a long time to redress that I don't hold much confidence that I'll enjoy much of what has been enjoyed before me. I imagine those born about now may be the next boomers, in about 20 years the system as it is now will eat itself. Unfortunately I think the period 2000-2030 will just be one of those periods of increasing inequality before it reverses again, typical it will be the best years of my working life!

Edited by SillyBilly

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