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TheCountOfNowhere

Reality Strikes....

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I;ve see this place up for sale for maybe 4 years, IIRC.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-45537367.html?premiumA=true

IIRC, it was up at 700K....went down to 630K before being pushed back up to 700K last year just as the pre-election "boom" was past it's sell by date.

Ironically if they'd stuck to their £630k price they might have sold in the pre-election boom.

Well, after 4 years reality has struck and for me this says.....REALITY IS STRIKING:

Brief Description changed: This ***NEW PRICE***This most impressive and impressive, spacious wonderful freehold detached character family home offers super accomodation including 6 bedrooms, 4 bathrooms, 5 reception rooms, study, garage and & good sized gardens. Very convenient location within easy reach of the to Sutton Town Centre, Train station and Sutton Park. & Sutton Park

Price changed: Offers in Region Excess of £650,000 £550,000
26/06/2015
Status changed: from 'Open Day' to 'Open To Offers'
05/06/2015
Brief Description changed: This most impressive four storey period residence boasts and spacious wonderful freehold detached character family home offers super accomodation including 6 bedrooms, 4 bathrooms, 5 reception rooms, a study, garage and extensive rear good sized gardens. There are Open House Viewings on Saturday 25th April 12-2pm and Monday 27th April 6-8pm. No appointment necessary Very convenient location within easy reach of the Town Centre, Train station and Sutton Park.
Price changed: Offers in Excess Region of £650,000
25/04/2015
Brief Description changed: This most impressive four storey period residence boasts 6 bedrooms, 4 bathrooms, 5 reception rooms, a study, garage and extensive rear gardens. There are Open House Viewings on Saturday 25th April 12-2pm and Monday 27th April 6-8pm. No appointment necessary
Price changed: Offers in Region Excess of £675,000 £650,000
Status changed: from 'Available' to 'Open Day'
23/02/2015
Status changed: from 'null' to 'Available'
21/01/2015
Price changed: £675,000
Price changed: Offers in Region of £675,000
19/01/2015
Price changed: £675,000
Price changed: Offers in Region of £675,000
04/12/2014
Price changed: Offers in Region of £675,000
Price changed: £675,000
Price changed: Offers in Region of £675,000
30/11/2014
Price changed: £675,000
10/10/2014
Price changed: Offers in Region of £699,950 £675,000
25/07/2014
Initial entry found.
Price changed: Offers in Region of £699,950
It's BOOM time

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Four Storey Family Home

Excellant Accommodation on Offer

Six substantial size bedrooms

Four BAthrooms

Five REception Rooms

Open Plan Breakfast Kitchen to dining room and family room

Attractive garden to the rear

Ideally positioned for Sutton Park and Sutton Railway Station

They're even trying to save money by employing functionally illiterate EAs

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Last sold for £650k in Jan 2005

That's about right then....Land registry for West mids is about 2004 level still.

If they get 550K for it, then you are talking 10 years costing them around 200K.

Shoulda rented.

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Land registry for West mids is about 2004 level still.

And yet, lenders always give us positive YoY HPI "stats" - every year it seems to be 5 to 10% according to Nationwide, Halifax et al. Are they just hand-selecting data to give those HPI increases?

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Last sold for £650k in Jan 2005

Purcahse Price: 650K

Including Stamp duty: 669K

Then interest at 2% ( mortgage or savings) : 816K

And EA Selling fee: £820K

Total potential loss: £270K

Shoulda rented.

It seems you can still loose on bricks and mortar.

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And yet, lenders always give us positive YoY HPI "stats" - every year it seems to be 5 to 10% according to Nationwide, Halifax et al. Are they just hand-selecting data to give those HPI increases?

No idea. I'd ignore the money lender indexes and go with the Land registry.

The land registry for anywhere North or Milton Keynes and West of Reading shows no dramatic rise in prices and really low sales volumes.

I real terms that means prices have dropped significantly.

If only wages had kept up or they hadn't introduced 0.5% IRs Q.E. FLS and HTB...we'd all be living somewhere nice.

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That's about right then....Land registry for West mids is about 2004 level still.

If they get 550K for it, then you are talking 10 years costing them around 200K.

Shoulda rented.

That's why I always treat my house as a liability and the dead money element of my balance sheet, property has gone nowhere in 11 years.

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That's about right then....Land registry for West mids is about 2004 level still.

If they get 550K for it, then you are talking 10 years costing them around 200K.

Shoulda rented.

I know the area well and have friends who live close to Sutton Park. They spent the best part of £300k on a massive renovation/extension to a semi circa 2006-7.

Good luck getting out from under that. ;)

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Does anyone really think an ea would stand for this sort of nonsense from a customer?

This is almost certainly a property that is owned by someone with access to rightmove (ie an ea). They're just bumping the price up and down based on how much demand they think there is, on the off chance they may luck out.

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My cousin has just had a 61k offer accepted on a Huddersfield property that went for 78k in Q1 2008, not even the peak. But he is wary now that it might go lower still and may pull out.

We really are very London centric when we suggest that property is up in the north. It really isn't.

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No idea. I'd ignore the money lender indexes and go with the Land registry.

The land registry for anywhere North or Milton Keynes and West of Reading shows no dramatic rise in prices and really low sales volumes.

I real terms that means prices have dropped significantly.

That's my reading. Seeing that Halifax reporting house prices roses 7.9% in the last 12 months made me think "well, not in Northampton, that's for sure" - prices have been flatlined here for a number of years, although RightMove is "noisy" with a lot of daft asking prices.

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they wanted 800k for it back in 2010...Dunno what EA told them they would get that; 2010 was near the credit crunch bottom, 2005 when they bought was near the bubble top in some areas.

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/property-history/22-anchorage-road/sutton-coldfield/b74-2pl/24949862

HOLY ****

So it's been on the market even longer than I knew.

That is seriously insane.

As I said, I see this as significant.

It sets the bar much lower for people in that area now.

It just shows how much money there is to be lost if you buy into the current madness.

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That's my reading. Seeing that Halifax reporting house prices roses 7.9% in the last 12 months made me think "well, not in Northampton, that's for sure" - prices have been flatlined here for a number of years, although RightMove is "noisy" with a lot of daft asking prices.

The asking price for some places are 2007+30%, so if someone get's mortgage approval based on them being in a chain then sure, the bank indexes will reflect that....do they ever actually become sales...The land registry price and sales volume indexes would say no.

The worst bit is the fact HTB has been used to support these chains, for low sales volumes which make the indexes look rosy.

a 4 bed average deatched in new estates are being advertised at 350K now.

Average wage locally, approx £25k.

So over 26 years that 350K house will cost approce 500K.

So is 20,000K a year,m after tax, so 30K a year before tax.

A single person would never be able to buy one now. Even a couple both on average ways, you'd have 19K before tax, say 12K to live off.

Crazy.

Even in Northants prices have to halve now (again).

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Does anyone really think an ea would stand for this sort of nonsense from a customer?

This is almost certainly a property that is owned by someone with access to rightmove (ie an ea). They're just bumping the price up and down based on how much demand they think there is, on the off chance they may luck out.

Maybe the owner is an EA :lol::lol::lol:

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The asking price for some places are 2007+30%, so if someone get's mortgage approval based on them being in a chain then sure, the bank indexes will reflect that....do they ever actually become sales...The land registry price and sales volume indexes would say no.

The worst bit is the fact HTB has been used to support these chains, for low sales volumes which make the indexes look rosy.

a 4 bed average deatched in new estates are being advertised at 350K now.

Average wage locally, approx £25k.

So over 26 years that 350K house will cost approce 500K.

So is 20,000K a year,m after tax, so 30K a year before tax.

A single person would never be able to buy one now. Even a couple both on average ways, you'd have 19K before tax, say 12K to live off.

Crazy.

Even in Northants prices have to halve now (again).

But people in Northants. don't move into a £350k house as their first house do they? Nor do (many) people move into a 4 bed detached as their first house.

I am guessing here, but I reckon it would be the 2nd, 3rd or even 4th house a couple buy in their life and that it probably has £200k - £250k mortgage.

Whether that enables the family living there to have a decent standard of living or not is another question.

But, whilst you are asking that question, you have to ask why they should expect to live in such a house when their peers in other countries need to live in far more frugal properties. Just because they happen to have been lucky enough to have been born in the UK doesn't mean that they are automatically near the top of the global list to live in a 4 bed detached house in Northants. Or does it?

Even Warren Buffet attributes being lucky enough to be born in America (at the time he was born) as a major factor in how he managed to become so wealthy.

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But people in Northants. don't move into a £350k house as their first house do they? Nor do (many) people move into a 4 bed detached as their first house.

....but the average age of the FTB is late 30s / early 40s now. So we've hit a real social problem - by that age, a lot of (most?) people have already started a family. So do the family buy a 1-bed or maybe 2-bed flat, and hope they can HPI their way to a 3-bed semi, then HPI their way to a 4-bed? It won't be their wages making them climb the "ladder", and actually......it won't even be HPI because there really hasn't been much or any HPI since 2007 in most places outside of London.

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But people in Northants. don't move into a £350k house as their first house do they? Nor do (many) people move into a 4 bed detached as their first house.

I am guessing here, but I reckon it would be the 2nd, 3rd or even 4th house a couple buy in their life and that it probably has £200k - £250k mortgage.

Whether that enables the family living there to have a decent standard of living or not is another question.

But, whilst you are asking that question, you have to ask why they should expect to live in such a house when their peers in other countries need to live in far more frugal properties. Just because they happen to have been lucky enough to have been born in the UK doesn't mean that they are automatically near the top of the global list to live in a 4 bed detached house in Northants. Or does it?

Even Warren Buffet attributes being lucky enough to be born in America (at the time he was born) as a major factor in how he managed to become so wealthy.

Spo you agree, the only person able to buy such a house is someone who has participated in the housing pyramid for the last 15 years ?

The 350K 4 bed house in question, is a F**KING TINY LITTLE SH*TTY STARTER HOME that EAs were struggling to sell for 200K 2 years ago.

In reality, as per 2007, very few people will be buying, except them with untaxed unearned tax payer supported equity moving out of London. Who them idiots think are going to buy their houses at those prices in 5 ytears is beyond me.

The prices are insane.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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But people in Northants. don't move into a £350k house as their first house do they? Nor do (many) people move into a 4 bed detached as their first house.

I am guessing here, but I reckon it would be the 2nd, 3rd or even 4th house a couple buy in their life and that it probably has £200k - £250k mortgage.

Whether that enables the family living there to have a decent standard of living or not is another question.

But, whilst you are asking that question, you have to ask why they should expect to live in such a house when their peers in other countries need to live in far more frugal properties. Just because they happen to have been lucky enough to have been born in the UK doesn't mean that they are automatically near the top of the global list to live in a 4 bed detached house in Northants. Or does it?

Even Warren Buffet attributes being lucky enough to be born in America (at the time he was born) as a major factor in how he managed to become so wealthy.

And he lived in a relatively basic house for years, maybe still does? These UK prices are just a reflection of the credit Ponzi though, lot`s of potential loss for anyone buying now. PTB have managed to keep people believing in the daft prices for a long time though, just shows how little thinking actually goes on around house buying from many members of the public?

Edited by dances with sheeple

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There's a house near me that was on at £750k, it's now being marketed at £550k. A friend of my neighbour wanted to buy it, but they can't find a buyer for their overpriced bungalow (asking price £600k) , so they are going to take it off and try again next year in the spring. The seller of the £550k house has agreed to sell it to them privately next year.

They honestly believe that the reason theirs hasn't sold is because the schools have broken up. Barmy.

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Spo you agree, the only person able to buy such a house is someone who has participated in the housing pyramid for the last 15 years ?

The 350K 4 bed house in question, is a F**KING TINY LITTLE SH*TTY STARTER HOME that EAs were struggling to sell for 200K 2 years ago.

In reality, as per 2007, very few people will be buying, except them with untaxed unearned tax payer supported equity moving out of London. Who them idiots think are going to buy their houses at those prices in 5 ytears is beyond me.

The prices are insane.

No, I don't agree with that at all

I am saying that a FTB doesn't (and shouldn't) expect to buy either a £350k or a 4 bed detached as her first house.

However, the act of buying a house (unless prices fall), does normally lead to increased wealth for the buyer over time

Even if house prices rose only with cpi, the mechanics of a repayment mortgage is like an accelerated savings scheme: Buy a house and pay £100 a month off the capital for 5 years and there is £6k sat waiting to be used.

If the house had not been bought then yes, the £100 could have been saved every month anyway, but it usually isn't (whatever rent is being paid)

London is a particular case - that market is just plain bonkers (see £750k Walthamstow doer upper on other threads). But, leaving that to one side there is no doubt that houses in some parts of the UK are higher than they have been historically.

Even so, expecting a single wage earner on the average salary to be able to buy a 4 bed detached (which is always going to be 1.5 - 2.5x the prevailing average house price) as her first foray into the housing market is wrong.

Expecting a single average wage earner to be able to buy a 1 bed flat / house with 10% deposit and 2.5 - 3.5x earnings mortgage) is what I would gauge as reasonable for FTB. I would expect 2 average earning working adults to be able to buy a 2 / 3 bed house with 10% deposit and 2.5 - 3.5x earnings mortgage and be able to afford for one of them to take a year off for child rearing, before the older of the couple is 30, with a little belt tightening.

If your interpretation of reasonable is different, you are welcome to your opinion. I am sure there are many variations of reasonable out there.

Also, if we never see that level of affordability again, I won't be hugely surprised.

I don't know how it plays out. House prices in Japan are still more expensive (as salary multiples) than here and I can make a strong case that says the UK could go the same way as Japan (UK is about 20 years behind on the journey). In Switzerland too, housing has, for decades, been more expensive (as salary multiples) than some people think it should be here.

There could be a crash - a big one. But I think the PTB will fight very hard, with weapons we haven't even thought of yet, to stop it being too severe. Based on the last 7+ years, they might be able to keep it going for another generation!

What I can say about the crash is that if it does come, it will be bigger than almost anyone is expecting. It could easily make prices overshoot to the downside of any long run average by as much as they have overshot to the upside.

Right now, I am 60/40 that there will >20% price fall in the next 5 years. 60% that there will be - because the market needs one, 40% that there won't be one because of PTB meddling + the UK psyche re owning

I wouldn't buy UK resi property as an investment just now. Nor, however, would I sell unleveraged / <30% leveraged resi property either.

In 'home' terms, I would sell an existing and buy another if it made sense for my own current circumstances (say I was moving for a new job or similar).

But I wouldn't offer any advice to anyone else, or even expect readers of the same fora as me to agree with me.

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