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FrozenOut

The Shmita Economic Cycle

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So ....What's everyone's take on The Shemitah?

Every Seven years there is either an Economic Crisis or an event that changes the way we live.

Shemitah%2B7%2Byear.jpg

Edited by FrozenOut

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You can pick any year and find something dramatic happening, particularly if you get to pick and chose the markets.. Bonds, stocks, oil.

I do believe these things go in cycles, but not a simplistic 7 year one. Martin Armstrong seems to have a better model for all this.

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So ....What's everyone's take on The Shemitah?

Every Seven years there is either an Economic Crisis or an event that changes the way we live.

Shemitah%2B7%2Byear.jpg

bond market/derivatives crisis is pretty obvious ,it's been festering for years now.

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You can make the argument Bretton Woods ended in 1971. The Oil crisis caused the hard recession which then because of the interest rates trigged the 1982 debt crisis, which also lead into the Savings and Loans crisis of the late 80s.

As already said you can almost pick any time point. Kindleberger argued financial crisis had occurred on average once every 10 years.

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I don't see any "cycle" since 2008 - most western countries have gone full ZIRP since then. No recovery since then, just potemkin economics.

Might as well say Greece is in a "cycle" - it's just fumbling from one crisis to another.

We live in unprecedented times.

If there was a "cycle" since 2008, where were the normalised interest rates that would suggest a true recovery between 2008 and 2015? NO RECOVERY.

The UK is nominally LESS productive than 2007. Stick that in your cycle.

Edited by canbuywontbuy

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US Recession Imminent - World Trade Slumps By Most Since Financial Crisis

20150723_USRECESSION.jpg

As goes the world, so goes America (according to 30 years of historical data), and so when world trade volumes drop over 2% (the biggest drop since 2009) in the last six months to the weakest since June 2014, the "US recession imminent" canary in the coalmine is drawing her last breath...

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I don't see any "cycle" since 2008 - most western countries have gone full ZIRP since then. No recovery since then, just potemkin economics.

Might as well say Greece is in a "cycle" - it's just fumbling from one crisis to another.

We live in unprecedented times.

If there was a "cycle" since 2008, where were the normalised interest rates that would suggest a true recovery between 2008 and 2015? NO RECOVERY.

The UK is nominally LESS productive than 2007. Stick that in your cycle.

maybe that was part of the plan by those none too friendly toward us.

it's straight out of mein kampf actually......economic sabotage/warfare.

I don't think there is really much doubt that the one trick pony rentier economy we've been graced with of late is by design,rather than accident.

lets see what else fits in with the old hitler model.

...demolish industry..check

..decimate localised coal+fish...yup

endless repetition of media "facts" to hypnotise people into the "big lie"...that too.

(i do wish that people would teach their kids REAL history)

if it looks like a duck,walks like a duck,quacks like a duck.......

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The Shemitah seems to be a fashionable thing on doom porn websites at the moment.

Personally, I think we could get a big time blow up in the next few years, but that's got nothing to do with biblical prophecies.

Edited by reddog

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At some point something will happen. Count back X years and call that a cycle. If nothing happened X years ago count back X*n years and call it a supercycle. When that fails count back X*n*m and call it a megacycle.

Edited by frozen_out

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2008 wasn't even that relevant as a cycle point. It wasn't the start of the credit crunch or the top or bottom or the market.. that was 2007 and 2009.

Edited by ManVsRecession

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bond market/derivatives crisis is pretty obvious ,it's been festering for years now.

In what way has a bond mkt crisis been festering for years???

All i see is a 30+ year uptrend.

#turningJapanese

Edited by Killer Bunny

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2008 wasn't even that relevant as a cycle point. It wasn't the start of the credit crunch or the top or bottom or the market.. that was 2007 and 2009.

I believe this - there are so many obvious solutions to the problems that the government haven't taken.

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In what way has a bond mkt crisis been festering for years???

All i see is a 30+ year uptrend.

#turningJapanese

most cycles are about 18 years long.

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Do you even have economic cycles in a market as rigged as the current one. You have an end point, like all Ponzis, but not cycles, I wouldnt think.

Are we near that end point. It certainly has the look of around 2007/early 08 when even stuff in dire conditions and terrible areas was getting sold within days. Everything is sold here now. Even the worst value stuff. It would indicate a top.

But then the 2008 crash only happened because of Gordon Browns incompetence; (his only redeeming feature) his incompetence at preparing for a crash actually allowed some semblance of the free market to momentarily operate, at least until early 2009 and prices were bid up by money forced into the market again. Gideot has learnt from Browns mistakes. If there is weakness in any area of the market, he will leap into action with a tsunami of government funds to ensure the 6 month correction of sept-08 to march 09 NEVER happens again.

Of course, the trouble is, when people's confidence is bolstered by this, they begin to not care what they pay, and Osbourne's desired 2-5% annual HPI goes mental.

It wouldn't surprise me if we see 25% year on year increases in house prices for a few years, till 2020 or so.

Edited by Executive Sadman

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You can make the argument Bretton Woods ended in 1971. The Oil crisis caused the hard recession which then because of the interest rates trigged the 1982 debt crisis, which also lead into the Savings and Loans crisis of the late 80s.

As already said you can almost pick any time point. Kindleberger argued financial crisis had occurred on average once every 10 years.

There is that...I would trace it back marginally further to about 1960, even WW2, even 1914 actually...and given the same thing has happened in Japan, very much not the anglo-american model (or controlled by the jews, if you are a conspiracy type!) its just the basic human nature of putting sociopaths in power.

My hypothesis.

America abandoned their own form of 'splendid isolation' in 1914. The federal reserve and the income tax were enacted to finance the US foray into WW1. Lusitania just a cover story. The military industrial complex as we know it today, was born. (all wars are banksters wars, where im going with this)

Fast Forward 25 years or so, and WW2 comes along. The banksters wanted a taste of it, their money-bloodlust was insatiable. The military-industrial complex grew in dominance and political power. After WW2 ended, they had no desire to lose this power, and all the personal wealth they were able to extract that came with it...rather than enjoy the peace, an unspoken policy of perpetual war was begun that continues to the present day. Korea, Vietnam, you name it. Eisenhower (an ex-military republican!) warned of the growth of the military industrial complex. No one listened.

The cost of waging war got more and more expensive, and along with LBJ's costly 'big society' programmes, could no longer be financed by a dollar linked to gold. The dropping of the gold window had nothing to do with trade competitiveness. It was simply the only way to tax the populace the required amounts to finance the military-industrial-welfare complex without their consent.

In the 70s, visible inflation was rocketing, government debt loads becoming a serious cause for concern. Rather than roll back the military-industrial-welfare complex, governments around the world, most notably Reagan and Thatcher, decided that the private sector must become as indebted as the public sector in order for the military-industrial-welfare complex to continue its growth rate of the past 30 years for the next 30 years.

The problem they have now is unlike in the 40s,50s and 60s, when public debt = private savings (ie war bonds) and private debt was low, both public and private debt are at record levels. That is why living standards have gone nowhere for 30 years and will go nowhere for another 30...maybe even falling, as all productivity increases are stolen by the government and banks.

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So ....What's everyone's take on The Shemitah?

Every Seven years there is either an Economic Crisis or an event that changes the way we live.

...

My crystal ball is very broken however in the course of the rest of my life I expect to see many more booms and busts. I'll just continue to passively rebalance by buying the worst performing asset class and actively rebalance if any asset class gets more than 25% from plan. It's worked well for me since 2007.

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