Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
HPCheese

London Hpi Went Yoy -ve In October - Odpm

Recommended Posts

Apologies if this has already been discussed...

According to the ODPM London went YOY -ve in October.

http://www.odpm.gov.uk/index.asp?id=100288...ssNoticeID=2040

Now obviously history doesn't always repeat itself, but look what happened to London YOY figures in 2003 and 2004. If the trend is repeated there will be more significant YOY drops in London in November and December, followed by a muted spring bounce, and then accelerated drops in the 2nd half of next year.

Not a very scientific way to predict the future, but this may be a good indication to the general direction in which the London market is moving.

Edited by HPCheese

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Apologies if this has already been discussed...

According to the ODPM London went YOY -ve in October.

http://www.odpm.gov.uk/index.asp?id=100288...ssNoticeID=2040

Now obviously history doesn't always repeat itself, but look what happened to London YOY figures in 2003 and 2004. If the trend is repeated there will be more significant YOY drops in London in November and December, followed by a muted spring bounce, and then accelerated drops in the 2nd half of next year.

Not a very scientific way to predict the future, but this may be a good indication to the general direction in which the London market is moving.

I posted on this on Monday but true to form it dropped off the forum while people carried on discussing SIPPS, 2 bed over-supply and "I want a property crash but......." <_< Yawn.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=20473

I think it is highly significant given that these are the only statistics that I am evenly slightly prepared to trust. Also, nobody has been warning about London falls - even during a period that got an unexpected boost from an interest rate cut and investors buying up SIPPS properties.

I firmly believe that the corner is definitely turned. As Riser's excellent graph shows, the zero inflation line has been crossed and if the trend continuues, price falls should continue:

nationalredgreenq30gw.gif

Where is that solid red line heading?

The next three months are going to be very quiet with regard to transaction levels. Many property sales will be people 'mopping up' properties that have been sat on the market since the summer and are finally being reduced (I've seen a few of these lately).

A quarter year of falling prices and those YOY negatives will apply to more than just London.

The wheels are falling off Scotland, Wales and NI very quickly. Their rates of inflation have kept the spin party going for at least a year, they are now likely to provide the first hangovers.

Xil.

Edited by Xil

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.