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cock-eyed octopus

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Hmm, The Syrizia and Greece and all that is more about the end of socialism, or at least constant government deficits.

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My knowledge of economics is pretty sketchy at best (along with most on this site!), but if there's one thing I've learnt, it's that once people get hold of money, they're not too keen on parting with it.

I'd imagine we'll see another world war before we see Mason's utopian vision...

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His point is that the changes being wrought are incomprehensible. Technology changes everything (except us). So what do we want to be? What constitutes wealth, when everything costs nothing? Housing is perhaps one of the last bastions of artificially induced shortages. Can this last forever? I don't think so.

One rather scary thought occurred to me about 15 years ago. I'm sure I'm not the first to think it, but - are we, unwittingly, the first species to build the next stage in it's evolution?

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Everything doesn't cost nothing though. Even if there are machines that automatically mass produce all the consumer goods we could wish for, and all information and inter-personal services are freely given and shared by all, we still need clean air, food and water, and somewhere to be. I.e. anyone who can occupy and control land and resources can bully the trst of us however they like.

His point is that the changes being wrought are incomprehensible. Technology changes everything (except us). So what do we want to be? What constitutes wealth, when everything costs nothing? Housing is perhaps one of the last bastions of artificially induced shortages. Can this last forever? I don't think so.

One rather scary thought occurred to me about 15 years ago. I'm sure I'm not the first to think it, but - are we, unwittingly, the first species to build the next stage in it's evolution?

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Hmm, The Syrizia and Greece and all that is more about the end of socialism, or at least constant government deficits.

Socialism does not automatically = deficit.

In the same way as capitalism does not always = surplus.

In America it's the Republicans who tend to run up debt. This ends at 2003 but Bush's debt obviously goes mental from 2008...

bush_deficit_graphic.gif

Edited by byron78

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I think the 'sharing' stuff is largely hogwash...uber, airbnb, money changes hands...it IS capitalism.

I think capitalism as we know it (ie state capitalism) will ultimately change (or go back to pre industrial times where production is no longer centralized) in the sense that everyone will be able to have individual power (solar/wind) individual production (3D printers) and stuff will be more freely available (think chinas repudiation of copyrights, themselves an aberration of the free market initiated by the state)

Of course, government will double down in their efforts to 'protect' their version of capitalism...look at the US and Obamacare. As far as I can see its the same healthcare system of the last 30 years, only you are forced to participate/be ripped off. But that will become blatant at some point.

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Interesting piece. I'm sure we'll at least see changes to the monetary system in our lifetime. We may even see different ways to build houses. There is already a protype robot which can lay bricks far quicker than a human. Maybe one day you'll pay a manufacturer and they'll 3d print you a house.

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Socialism does not automatically = deficit.

In the same way as capitalism does not always = surplus.

In America it's the Republicans who tend to run up debt. This ends at 2003 but Bush's debt obviously goes mental from 2008...

bush_deficit_graphic.gif

Its not political/partisan at all.

The governments desire to add debt is simply a response to the private sector (and, in the US, state/local governments) lack of desire to add debt.

Look at aggregate debt levels (ie all private and public) and they rise fairly uniformly (well, accelerate uniformly) regardless of who is in office.

Plus, then there are the accounting tricks. Clinton only achieved a surplus by stealing from social security. Look at the US federal debt levels and they mysteriously carry on rising even during the clinton 'surplus' years. In fact, IIRC from looking at denningers charts, that Bush 1 massive deficit was actually the only year since 1970 or something the US economy as a whole where a surplus was almost achieved, such was the rate the private sector reducing debt in 1992.

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It's a rehash of the tech will take our jobs mind virus currently doing the rounds.

Interesting how he linked it to socialism. Not surprising given he is a socialist perhaps.

I'm sceptical of the automation bs. Talking to an old timer at work the other day (insurance) said in his day - massive typing pools, no computers, email, just one mainframe for actuaries. I asked when this was, thinking answer would be 60-70s but was 1982.

Occurred to me that in 15 years ive worked not much has changed I.e between 2001 - 2015. Same email, computers etc. Things are better but not fundamentally different.

Massive tech change was 1980 - 2000. IMO. We are running on tech fumes? Didn't Intel just admit they can't keep up with Moore's law?

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Its not political/partisan at all.

The governments desire to add debt is simply a response to the private sector (and, in the US, state/local governments) lack of desire to add debt.

Look at aggregate debt levels (ie all private and public) and they rise fairly uniformly (well, accelerate uniformly) regardless of who is in office.

Plus, then there are the accounting tricks. Clinton only achieved a surplus by stealing from social security. Look at the US federal debt levels and they mysteriously carry on rising even during the clinton 'surplus' years. In fact, IIRC from looking at denningers charts, that Bush 1 massive deficit was actually the only year since 1970 or something the US economy as a whole where a surplus was almost achieved, such was the rate the private sector reducing debt in 1992.

Problem is Denninger's charts are heavily politically bias aren't they?

He's a founding member of the Tea Party for crying out loud.

I'm surprised he didn't find Clinton guilty of 9/11 and that Bush Snr can walk on water.

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Interesting piece. I'm sure we'll at least see changes to the monetary system in our lifetime. We may even see different ways to build houses. There is already a protype robot which can lay bricks far quicker than a human. Maybe one day you'll pay a manufacturer and they'll 3d print you a house.

We're already there - they are talking about it being common within about 5 years. It's hard to see how we can continue to fail to meet new build targets when you can print 10 houses in 24 hours.

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We're already there - they are talking about it being common within about 5 years. It's hard to see how we can continue to fail to meet new build targets when you can print 10 houses in 24 hours.

I don't disagree with the principle and maybe the time frame for some housing/construction but there seem to be a lot of claims about house printing.

The article typically claims that the villa was printed (implying that it was all printed) but it seems likely that in reality only parts were printed and it would have been helpful if the article had been more precise exactly which parts. For example the top storey and windows don't look printed. Of course it does depend on their definition of printing.

Just saying.

Edited by billybong

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Second, information is corroding the market’s ability to form prices correctly. That is because markets are based on scarcity while information is abundant.

Some information is abundant (mainly because of the internet) but information under the control of institutions and governments (especially the UK government) seems to be becoming less abundant since the early days of the internet and a lot of it seems (apparently intentionally) time lagged by years or needing to jump through apparently endless hoops to obtain up to date information.

Edited by billybong

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Some information is abundant (mainly because of the internet) but information under the control of institutions and governments (especially the UK government) seems to be becoming less abundant since the early days of the internet and a lot of it seems (apparently intentionally) time lagged by years or needing to jump through apparently endless hoops to obtain up to date information.

Which is why the government wants to neuter the FoI act (something that Blair did that was actually good)

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/the-end-of-foi-right-to-know-in-peril-as-government-targets-freedom-of-information-10397935.html

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It's a rehash of the tech will take our jobs mind virus currently doing the rounds.

Interesting how he linked it to socialism. Not surprising given he is a socialist perhaps.

I'm sceptical of the automation bs. Talking to an old timer at work the other day (insurance) said in his day - massive typing pools, no computers, email, just one mainframe for actuaries. I asked when this was, thinking answer would be 60-70s but was 1982.

Occurred to me that in 15 years ive worked not much has changed I.e between 2001 - 2015. Same email, computers etc. Things are better but not fundamentally different.

Massive tech change was 1980 - 2000. IMO. We are running on tech fumes? Didn't Intel just admit they can't keep up with Moore's law?

But don't forget that a lot of the productivity that IT should have provided in the office environment has been swallowed up by creating more pointless prettier bits of paper, not toe mention the amount of extra administrative work required to comply with legislation. Go back to 1980 and personnel just had to do payroll, PAYE and dish out p45s when required. These days it has become human resources and has to keep the business compliant with a huge amount of productivity limiting legislation.

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But don't forget that a lot of the productivity that IT should have provided in the office environment has been swallowed up by creating more pointless prettier bits of paper, not toe mention the amount of extra administrative work required to comply with legislation. Go back to 1980 and personnel just had to do payroll, PAYE and dish out p45s when required. These days it has become human resources and has to keep the business compliant with a huge amount of productivity limiting legislation.

Indeed.My factory jobs in the 80s used to be simply turn up in the car park.Have a ten minute talk with the section manager.Start tomorrow.Name,address,bank details.That was it.Next time you saw personnel was when you got laid off.Now it seems ten times more complicated through an agency etc.

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Well, I`ve had a good look at a lot of Paul Mason`s stuff on Youtube. I think he has a good idea what`s coming but no idea what we can do about it. Sadly most people have tied up far to much time and money in education so that nothing will change for many years.

As for global warming (he`s a fan) he`d not be willing to give up his lavish lifestyle....just leave to the lumpen prolls...

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