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Nationwide - June Price Drop (-0.2% Mom)

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That's the biggest monthly fall since September, which was also -0.2%, and only the 3rd month in 2 years when there was a monthly fall (the other being February this year at -0.1%).

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/Jun_2015.pdf

The quarterly report for Q2 is out too:

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/Q2_2015.pdf

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That's the biggest monthly fall since September, which was also -0.2%, and only the 3rd month in 2 years when there was a monthly fall (the other being February this year at -0.1%).

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/Jun_2015.pdf

The quarterly report for Q2 is out too:

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/Q2_2015.pdf

Thanks. The report feels like a prebudget representation referring to under-occupancy. Not sure if there are lots of older generation wanting to downsize? Suitable property is in short supply - bungalows (Near zzero new supply and many existing converted). Then there is finding the buyers as these kind of properties can require investment. The alternative is flashy newbuilds which the gov' is subsidizing.

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Note the methodology change:

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/Notification_of_changes_to_methodology_Jul15.pdf

We will continue to follow the same type of statistical approach (known as ‘hedonic regression’) to calculate house prices. However, as a result of planned changes to our mortgage application process we may no longer commission physical mortgage valuation reports for all cases and so in future will source more information from customer application data. As we may not have complete or consistent information for a number of property attributes (floor area, type of garage and number of bathrooms), these variables will no longer be used in the index.

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" we may no longer commission physical mortgage valuation reports for all cases "

is this to take out some costs, reduce the application time and make it easier for Nationwide to lend?

it feels to me like a way for Nationwide to get more mortgage lending on its books

am I wrong to think that lenders are increasingly falling over themselves to lend to anyone that qualifies in MMR terms ?

the fact that mortgage approvals are up significantly year on year makes me think that is what is going on.

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London_FTB_PE_ratio_NW_Q2_2015.gif

(Data from Nationwide's quarterly FTB P/E ratio spreadsheet. For this calculation they use regional mean gross earnings for a full time worker from the ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings.)

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" we may no longer commission physical mortgage valuation reports for all cases "

is this to take out some costs, reduce the application time and make it easier for Nationwide to lend?

it feels to me like a way for Nationwide to get more mortgage lending on its books

am I wrong to think that lenders are increasingly falling over themselves to lend to anyone that qualifies in MMR terms ?

the fact that mortgage approvals are up significantly year on year makes me think that is what is going on.

Sounds like something the Northern Rock might have done !!!!!

The nationwide, whichj is a MUTUAL, should not be doing this.

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London_FTB_PE_ratio_NW_Q2_2015.gif

(Data from Nationwide's quarterly FTB P/E ratio spreadsheet. For this calculation they use regional mean gross earnings for a full time worker from the ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings.)

Why would anyone buy in London looking at that graph!?

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" we may no longer commission physical mortgage valuation reports for all cases "

is this to take out some costs, reduce the application time and make it easier for Nationwide to lend?

it feels to me like a way for Nationwide to get more mortgage lending on its books

am I wrong to think that lenders are increasingly falling over themselves to lend to anyone that qualifies in MMR terms ?

the fact that mortgage approvals are up significantly year on year makes me think that is what is going on.

My initial feeling was that within reason they'd lend as much as the borrower wants to believe the place is worth, provided they meet MMR and put down a big enough deposit that Nationwide are still covered if it all goes pear shaped. The cynic in me says that's a nice way of keeping volumes up and the index positive whilst covering off the risk. Pure uninformed guesswork, it was just what occurred to me as I read it.

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Look at this baby go down. It's not inconceivable that it will hit 0% as early as next month:

nationwide_hpi.gif

Great chart! The Osborne-Carney echo bubble looks every bit as spent as Brown's 2nd (pre-election) bubble from 2010. :)

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Looks like a classic fail of a rising trend and retest. If fails the retest then ie can't get back above red line then we're almost assured an inflation-adjusted bust.

The chart is Real not Nominal.

Edited by Killer Bunny

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Wales is amazing. Prices unchanged from 10 years ago.

2 of 5 regions have scored 1% pa compund growth in 10 years.

The other three have have had 0% growth for 10 years.

Edited by Killer Bunny

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West Midlands and East Midlands BOTH sub 1% compound growth in 10 years, with just 3 of 17 areas with just achieving 1% pa compound.

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North - sub 1% pa compound

Northern ireland - sub 1% pa compund

Yorkshire % Humberside - sub 1% pa compound

F me!

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Looks like a classic fail of a rising trend and retest. If fails the retest then ie can't get back above red line then we're almost assured an inflation-adjusted bust.

In this case, the goal is moving - the trend line does get adjusted. Was 2.9% a couple of years ago and is now down to 2.7%. For example, the 2008 trough used to rest exactly on the 2.9% trend line but is now clearly above it.

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North - sub 1% pa compound

Northern ireland - sub 1% pa compund

Yorkshire % Humberside - sub 1% pa compound

F me!

Wont take much of a fall from here to turn that negative. House prices, they double every seven years...

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Amazing to see the graph with "Average UK House Price". In 2009 it had dropped to ~ £145K.

Since then, it's been "pump,pump,pump" by Osborne and his cronies. Shameful.

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