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TheCountOfNowhere

Consumer Confidence At 15 Year High !

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Why do people keep thinking there will be a HPC? Debt brings the masses under control. We will only have a crash in debt when the elites lose control. At that moment, we'll have a lot more to worry about than what our houses are worth. The markets are difficult to time and will generally outlast individual's useful lifespans. What's the point of discussing it? If you like living within your means - do so. Otherwise, enjoy the high life in the majority and see if your 78 years (on average) on the planet gives you experiences that make you happy. Go out and enjoy the weather...life will go on...as will this forum

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Why do people keep thinking there will be a HPC?

You seem to have missed something:

homepage.png#

Please, if you could enlighten us to what there wont be a HPC when it's blindingly obvious we are in the middle of one then I am all ears.

My savings and investments are 30% up on house prices ( ignoring London where I have no desire to live ).

The problem are peoples wages and the cost of living now. They've made the crash worse now with their crazy schemes so we should now expect another nominal fall IMHO.

You can continue to live in the dont think for yourself world if you like.

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Why do people keep thinking there will be a HPC?

Are you serious ?

You must be under 30yrs old and never lived through a complete economic cycle.

Can I have my £5.00 please ?

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You seem to have missed something:

homepage.png#

Please, if you could enlighten us to what there wont be a HPC when it's blindingly obvious we are in the middle of one then I am all ears.

My savings and investments are 30% up on house prices ( ignoring London where I have no desire to live ).

The problem are peoples wages and the cost of living now. They've made the crash worse now with their crazy schemes so we should now expect another nominal fall IMHO.

You can continue to live in the dont think for yourself world if you like.

But - Count, if you knew exactly how the past 25 years in the UK was going to run, the best thing to have done would have been to max on debt into London top end property, with maybe a little jump in and out of gold at the right time (sell houses 2007, into gold, sell gold 2012). Hateful, but there we go.

It's crap, but it's reality. I hope it does not continue - I don't think it will - but the last 5 years have taught me just how much TPTB are willing to do to keep property prices inflated beyond all sanity. So, my current plan is to save hard whilst having fun. Example - we just spent money on a gift flying an old relative on a round the world trip. Last chance they will have, visiting friends and family in 4 countries. we did it as their christmas and birthday present for 5 years rolled up into one. I could have kept that money in the feck off fund, but sometimes it's worth spending some of that on those you love.

So - hope for a HPC, be prepared for no HPC, live as if the future is uncertain.....

Edited by wherebee

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But - Count, if you knew exactly how the past 25 years in the UK was going to run, the best thing to have done would have been to max on debt into London top end property, with maybe a little jump in and out of gold at the right time (sell houses 2007, into gold, sell gold 2012). Hateful, but there we go.

Let's see:

Pre-2007 house prices in London and shires went hand in hand, didnt matter where you bought.

So, Bought, traded up, traded up, traded up, sold. Market Crash. Bought gold. Sold.

Made profit each time.

Renting at half the cost of buying.

Cash tucked away earning 2%+

Wife sold up in London in 2011, bailed out by some idiot.

Could have bought in london in 2011 and what, liveed in a s**thole with children, speculating on an over-valued housing market with a good chance you could loose half of everything.

The thing about having no debt and the ability to live for the next 20 years without working is you really dont have to give a **** and you can move to where best suits your children.

You clearly have no idea what you are talking about, best I dont listen.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Why do people keep thinking there will be a HPC? Debt brings the masses under control. We will only have a crash in debt when the elites lose control. At that moment, we'll have a lot more to worry about than what our houses are worth. The markets are difficult to time and will generally outlast individual's useful lifespans. What's the point of discussing it? If you like living within your means - do so. Otherwise, enjoy the high life in the majority and see if your 78 years (on average) on the planet gives you experiences that make you happy. Go out and enjoy the weather...life will go on...as will this forum

Totally still believe that house prices are toppy on valuation, if I didn't (we including the wife) we'd hardly have 75% of our equity in cash and other investments.

To be honest I don't think household debt will be the catalyst after a 25% deleveraging, we were at 1.4 trillion in 2007 and eight years later that has bearly moved...the biggest private sector deleveraging in modern history. What I find really scary is the Government have taken up the mantle on speed,surpassing private sector debt and possibly tripling private sector with all those boomer promises of unfunded state health and retirement pension. Hoping for a bit of the action myself in this area in 16 years time, who knows. But there lies the unexploded bomb.

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It is possible to fool all of the sheeple, all of the time!

Mark 'Nought Percent' Carney has made a veritable career out of it.

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You seem to have missed something:

homepage.png#

Please, if you could enlighten us to what there wont be a HPC when it's blindingly obvious we are in the middle of one then I am all ears.

My savings and investments are 30% up on house prices ( ignoring London where I have no desire to live ).

The problem are peoples wages and the cost of living now. They've made the crash worse now with their crazy schemes so we should now expect another nominal fall IMHO.

You can continue to live in the dont think for yourself world if you like.

There is one thing that we all forgot- computers (that keep track of all the real and unreal debts + invent a new debt every second for willing slaves) + endless supply of willimg slaves both foreign and indigenous who are willing to work longer, harder and for smaller salary (than you or me) and sacrifice everything just to get that mortgage on the shoebox sized pigstail which they have to renovate on loans backed up by you and me.

Slavery has been the longest surviving system because slaves will compete agressively with one another to get nicer looking shackles.

How can we compete wih them? It is a herd in full stampede and they are pushing the whole civilisation into the abyss, and we are stuck in the middle of it.

I will not work for the low salary they get, and at the same time I cannot buy insane priced property which they will buy and outbid me thanks to big daddy's (government's) bank guarantie with my money.

Considering the above, this time it is - really different.

I am extremely dissapointed and upset, but I have to admit that they won.

I bet that none of them even dreamt of such an easy victory.

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Well my consumer expectations are soaring......

Mine is too...just bought 24 tins of tesco beans. Howz that for confidence

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Not Tesco or Sainsburys shoppers. Some pretty iffy retail data out today or prices and market share.

I noticed their share prices were down 2 or 3 % not sure where they finished.

That would be at odds with this magical consumer confidence.

Tesco PLC
LON: TSCO - Jun 30 4:40 PM GMT
212.55Price decrease6.20 (2.83%)
J Sainsbury plc
LON: SBRY - Jun 30 4:49 PM GMT+1
267.76Price decrease6.44 (2.35%)
WM Morrison Supermarkets PLC
LON: MRW - Jun 30 4:49 PM GMT+1
181.38Price decrease1.22 (0.67%)
Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Let's see:

Pre-2007 house prices in London and shires went hand in hand, didnt matter where you bought.

So, Bought, traded up, traded up, traded up, sold. Market Crash. Bought gold. Sold.

Made profit each time.

Renting at half the cost of buying.

Cash tucked away earning 2%+

Wife sold up in London in 2011, bailed out by some idiot.

Could have bought in london in 2011 and what, liveed in a s**thole with children, speculating on an over-valued housing market with a good chance you could loose half of everything.

The thing about having no debt and the ability to live for the next 20 years without working is you really dont have to give a **** and you can move to where best suits your children.

You clearly have no idea what you are talking about, best I dont listen.

I'm being realistic - I know enough to understand there is never any point in trying to convince someone. People believe what they want to believe it makes them who they are.

Looking at your story above - you seem to have benefited from the property boom nicely. Its your kids and those under 30 who have no hope of achieving similar to what you have. But as with all cycles in life, markets, the sun and nature, another cycle will be born and take some people up and others down. The velocity of money from the older generation to the younger one has slowed down - that is the actual problem. George Osborne is trying his hardest to unlock all that cash sat in older people's pensions to push into the economy towards the youth as without it the end result of a unbalanced system will be revolution. Not sure who we will sell all those £1m London 3-bed mansions to though - Indian middle classes? Chinese? There's certainly enough of them who are millionaires since they don't really pay any tax yet live in a quasi capitalist society.

I do suggest a view that as the older part of the population rises, any service that will involve youth, strength, vigour - from opening jam jars to looking after the elderly will become much more expensive. The young will take back the money the boomer generation have "earned" in property because when push comes to shove older people are going to need them. Of course, lots of people could emigrate or we could increase immigration - but its looking less and less likely based on the 4m odd that voted for UKIP.

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Don't they say a crash is coming when confidence peaks, when prices can't go down? I think we are seeing the plateau now. 2016 is as ripe as any year for a market crash, I am riding stocks for the remainder of this year and then moving out for safe havens the start of next. Can see silver hitting $12/ounce and Gold at $1000/ounce by year end, I'd be happy to load up at those prices towards the end of a bull run. Something seems to be brewing and that is nothing more than a feeling than an informed judgement!

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You seem to have missed something:

homepage.png#

Please, if you could enlighten us to what there wont be a HPC when it's blindingly obvious we are in the middle of one then I am all ears.

My savings and investments are 30% up on house prices ( ignoring London where I have no desire to live ).

The problem are peoples wages and the cost of living now. They've made the crash worse now with their crazy schemes so we should now expect another nominal fall IMHO.

You can continue to live in the dont think for yourself world if you like.

Why post a chart showing long term rise in real house prices then conclude that we should now expect another nominal fall?

Non-sequitur

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Why post a chart showing long term rise in real house prices then conclude that we should now expect another nominal fall?

Non-sequitur

Real prices...relative to government measured inflation....not real prices measured against wages.

There in lies the problem with this magica recovery...has inflated the bubble and hammered up the cost of everything.....except wages.

Sure, you can get a 2% mortgage but with price at mental levels they might as well be half that and IRs be 6%.

The only people who want the low mortgage rate and the high value are those sitting at the top of the pyramid, laughing all the way to the bank.

i.e. the rich, the old and the 20 years in parliament MPs.

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Confidence is high and interest rates are at historical lows- could there be a connection?

I think there is a growing confidence due to ease of credit.

A credit line that might well be shut off next week.

Come back in 6 months and see where we are....

Debt=Wealth until you need to pat it back.

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Confidence should be tested. If you said to consumers - "since you're all feeling so confident, it's time to raise the base rate to 2%" - if such a notion requires them to change their shorts while answering, then that's what we call false confidence.

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