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Si1

The Government Want Flat Nominal House Prices Over The Course Of An Electoral Cycle

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Falls in the first part of the cycle, gains in the second part approaching the general election. This is my opinion. Discuss.

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Meaning overall real falls of about 11% or so over the course. Japanese crash speed.

Edited by Si1

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We will be told whatever they can get away with, reality does not enter into it. Besides, they are passengers, and not in control - whatever they pretend.

They seem to have pulled this off leading up to the last election:

proxy.jpg?t=HBgtaHR0cDovL3N0YXRpYy5vdy5s

Seems to me that prices went exactly where they wanted, unfortunately.

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OBR is 5 years old. Take your market bearings and then decisions from an arm of gov and you deserve all that you get.

Misdirection, time after time. Hoover and Roosevelt promised recovery around the corner month after month, year after year. They knew it not true. They called in sustaining the morale of the people, in the debt liquidation - although plenty of winners from the shakeout process too.

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They seem to have pulled this off leading up to the last election:

..Seems to me that prices went exactly where they wanted, unfortunately.

Whilst UK major banks can now handle a serious hpc having smoothed out positions into that reflation cycle.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30491161

Maybe leading to a proper shock, for owner side that barely noticed 2007-09, and got back to forever hpi soon after.

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That's not what is in the OBR forecasts. Their intentions are all there.

The upshot being what?

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Whilst UK major banks can now handle a serious hpc having smoothed out positions into that reflation cycle.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30491161

Maybe leading to a proper shock, for owner side that barely noticed 2007-09, and got back to forever hpi soon after.

Run that over 3 more electoral cycles and it IS a serious hpc

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OBR is 5 years old. Take your market bearings and then decisions from an arm of gov and you deserve all that you get.

Misdirection, time after time. Hoover and Roosevelt promised recovery around the corner month after month, year after year. They knew it not true. They called in sustaining the morale of the people, in the debt liquidation - although plenty of winners from the shakeout process too.

That has been the MO for most of the west for the last six years and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future

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Run that over 3 more electoral cycles and it IS a serious hpc

Venger's banking on 50% nominal falls overnight.

I'm with you, a long slow grind over a decade or two is much more likely.

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They seem to have pulled this off leading up to the last election:

proxy.jpg?t=HBgtaHR0cDovL3N0YXRpYy5vdy5s

Seems to me that prices went exactly where they wanted, unfortunately.

The Help to Buy Budget speech was March 2013, pretty much exactly where the blue line goes above 50.

I think they're anything but passengers in this. The theory from the first post was true out over the last 5 years, the next will see if it happens again.

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The Help to Buy Budget speech was March 2013, pretty much exactly where the blue line goes above 50.

I think they're anything but passengers in this. The theory from the first post was true out over the last 5 years, the next will see if it happens again.

Thanks. I'll emphasize I think it's their intention. Events may mean they don't achieve that of course, which could then fall into venger's scenario. Edited by Si1

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Agreed politically although that isn't what their spending plans are based on.

If you look at the OBR estimates the government based their manifesto upon then the only way they can meet their borrowing targets is a with a massive and sustained housing bubble.

They expect personal debt to reach 182% of GDP by 2019 (well above the 2007 peak) and the forecast is for a huge spike in mortgage lending over the next year followed by that flattening out and a huge surge in personal credit.

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Agreed politically although that isn't what their spending plans are based on.

If you look at the OBR estimates the government based their manifesto upon then the only way they can meet their borrowing targets is a with a massive and sustained housing bubble.

They expect personal debt to reach 182% of GDP by 2019 (well above the 2007 peak) and the forecast is for a huge spike in mortgage lending over the next year followed by that flattening out and a huge surge in personal credit.

Which itself contradicts mmr...

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Agreed politically although that isn't what their spending plans are based on.

If you look at the OBR estimates the government based their manifesto upon then the only way they can meet their borrowing targets is a with a massive and sustained housing bubble.

They expect personal debt to reach 182% of GDP by 2019 (well above the 2007 peak) and the forecast is for a huge spike in mortgage lending over the next year followed by that flattening out and a huge surge in personal credit.

This is the chart:

Household_debt_to__3127662b.jpg

That is the March 14 vs Dec 14 forecast.

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On the other hand timak, if oldies liquidating their mortgage free houses to cover their bills in old age or simply thru death, if they o increasingly sell up over the coming decade, then on order to keep house prices stable, in the government's interest, then perhaps huge debt would be required to buy these houses up at prices that don't fall off a cliff.

Perhaps massive borrowing is required in order to dampen the falls that might happen anyway.

That is the oldies selling up are not liquidating any debt as they paid off their mortgage years ago. So the accounting balance is entirely on the new debt side in order to have any money to sustain house prices.

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I genuinely do not know.

I doubt the government or OBR do either - their 'plans' are nothing more than wishful thinking.

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I genuinely do not know.

I doubt the government or OBR do either - their 'plans' are nothing more than wishful thinking.

Again, I emphasize I think it's what they WANT, of course they may be wishful thinking

Edited by Si1

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Again, I emphasize I think it's what they WANT, of course they may be wishful thinking

I know.

There's this whole Lake Wobegong-ish quality about all politics, not just the UKs.

And the worse the country gets, the more they cling to these 'magic'/exceptional claims.

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I know.

There's this whole Lake Wobegong-ish quality about all politics, not just the UKs.

And the worse the country gets, the more they cling to these 'magic'/exceptional claims.

Events my dear boy, events

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Events my dear boy, events

Events and huge fcking leverage/deficits.

The UK is in a financial state where we cannot afford a slowdown/crash, which guarantees we'll have a crash.

Less events, more useless one-eyed scots tnuc.

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I seem to recall in 2011-12 sometime, Schapps saying house prices should only rise in line with inflation for an extended period so that wages could catch up. That line of thinking clearly went out of the window within 12 months...

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I seem to recall in 2011-12 sometime, Schapps saying house prices should only rise in line with inflation for an extended period so that wages could catch up. That line of thinking clearly went out of the window within 12 months...

Over 5 years I think that happened more or less

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You can pretty much guarantee what he says would happen is balls. I always think of that clip of Crick following him, asking questions as he goes...

Does anyone else suspect we are currently being spun a lie reference the current "boom"? I am in the SE, and have an almost OCD interest in the Market. What I am seeing is very little moving. Come on everybody, pay silly money - those boomer bottoms wont wipe themselves

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Still apologising for this shower of shit.

Mental health also suffers when you try to warp something that clearly isn't into your view of what it is.

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