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Richard Vague - Private Debt To Gdp Ratios

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http://www.amazon.co.uk/Next-Economic-Disaster-Coming-Avoid/dp/0812247043/ref=sr_1_sc_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1435434321&sr=8-1-spell&keywords=richard+bvague

Just been flicking through this. Basic premise is if private debt to GDP expand by more than 18% in a 5 year period and total private debt to GDP exceeds 150% then there is a strong possibility that a financial crisis will occur.

And according to the book the UK ratio was 24% in the 5 years preceding the crisis and was at 208% total private debt to GDP.

http://debt-economics.org/

The appendixes can be reviewed here.

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any idea what has happened to those numbers for the five year periods from 09 and 10 and the shorter periods from 11, 12, 13 and 14?

Without checking, I would be surprised if private debt : GDP is below 150% but I would also be surprised if it has expanded by anything like 18% in any five year period since the banking crisis

Do surprise me if I am wrong

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Private debt should be mentioned every bit as much as government/national/public debt.

It has exactly the same effect in currency debasement, and, when a crisis occurs, it is either nationalized/socialized anyway, or explicit guarantees given against the possibility of default.

There really shouldnt be any distinction between private and public debt. Both debase the money supply, and as the government never allow the money supply to contract, the idea that only the individual private actors involved in private debts are hurt when it turns bad is redundant.

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any idea what has happened to those numbers for the five year periods from 09 and 10 and the shorter periods from 11, 12, 13 and 14?

Without checking, I would be surprised if private debt : GDP is below 150% but I would also be surprised if it has expanded by anything like 18% in any five year period since the banking crisis

Do surprise me if I am wrong

First few years (ie 2009-2012) we know private debt wasnt expanding as they wouldnt have been doing QE if it had. Since then, theye managed to goad the chinese et al into repatriating sterling via FDI and to get savers spending too. I would imagine there has been a fairly mild debasement of the money supply by private banks since 2012...that said, denninger counts it in the us via the fed Z1 and even though its increasing fairly modestly, real growth is so anemic its still stealing purchasing power.

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any idea what has happened to those numbers for the five year periods from 09 and 10 and the shorter periods from 11, 12, 13 and 14?

Without checking, I would be surprised if private debt : GDP is below 150% but I would also be surprised if it has expanded by anything like 18% in any five year period since the banking crisis

Do surprise me if I am wrong

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS

http://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=34814

Have a look at these links.

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So, private debt has been paid off by approx 25% in 5 years, is that a correct statement? A downtrend trajectory established, doesn't support the hypothesy of an impending boom in that case?

The U.S still at almost 200% private debt to GDP.

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So, private debt has been paid off by approx 25% in 5 years, is that a correct statement? A downtrend trajectory established, doesn't support the hypothesy of an impending boom in that case?

The U.S still at almost 200% private debt to GDP.

Other forms of debt have been increasing faster than the private sector has been deleveraging as far as i am aware, so we are at a worse position than 2008.

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