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pipllman

New Home Sales In Us At 7 Year High

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This thread refers to data released about the US housing market, in America

On the back of used house sales hitting a 5.5 year high in May, new home sales were the highest since Feb 2008 and April's number was revised upwards.

Building permits also close to an 8 year peak too

The stock of new houses for sale was unchanged and is less than half of the peak seen at the height of the housing boom. The stock represents 4.5 months of inventory.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102780596

Edited by pipllman

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On the back of used house sales hitting a 5.5 year high in May, new home sales were the highest since Feb 2008 and April's number was revised upwards.

Building permits also close to an 8 year peak too

The stock of new houses for sale was unchanged and is less than half of the peak seen at the height of the housing boom. The stock represents 4.5 months of inventory.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102780596

I see a problem with your report....this is the UK, thats the US, your headline is misleading to anyone that casually browses it !!!

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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I see a problem with your report....this is the UK, thats the US, your headline is misleading to anyone that casually browses it !!!

added a line to my opening post to clear that up a bit

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added a line to my opening post to clear that up a bit

Thanks.

I was confused by the previous one too. Was wondering how the hell the UK market was booming but that clears it up.

Much obliged,

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I posted it based on the old saying that When America sneezes, Britain catches a cold

No reason to suspect that the US housing growth won't make its way over the water to our shores too

Is there?

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I posted it based on the old saying that When America sneezes, Britain catches a cold

No reason to suspect that the US housing growth won't make its way over the water to our shores too

Is there?

Yeah, just a few....

Their prices crashed hard.

They have an oil backed economic power house economy.

They rule the world, we don't.

Didnt someone post a chart the last time showing this new "high" in 7 years was abouse 30% of the pre-2007 high ?

Some high, more a least low.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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doesn't the fact that the 2002 bubble is still way off lend credibility to the argument that this isn't a(nother) bubble

just good growth

being delivered by a strong economy and sound leadership by the Fed and government?

just don't mention the debt

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No reason to suspect that the US housing growth won't make its way over the water to our shores too

Is there?

LOL - well then no problem when the Fed raises their interest rates, the BoE can raise their interest rates too - to stop Sterling from tanking....right? Right?! And if they do - given the UK's anemic economy, expect house prices to fall - which will piss UK new-builders right off.

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maybe 2008 level is good

maybe it is a level that the US economy can sustain

maybe the peak was just a massive bubble and that's now gone, lessons learnt and things on a normal and wholly healthy level

maybe not

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maybe the peak was just a massive bubble and that's now gone, lessons learnt and things on a normal and wholly healthy level

hahahaha

yes, nothing to see here, move along, move along.

0.5% base rate - notch it up by 0.25% and what do you have? A base rate that is still 1.25% lower than the lowest ever base rate between 1694 and February 2009. If you said to a time traveller that we have a 0.5% base rate, a "strong, robust economy", low unemployment, high employment, and yet..... a very quiet housing market, they would scratch their heads....until you tell them the house price / wage ratio. Yes, all normal. Very very normal.

VIs like to describe it as "normal" - but VIs are always defending the status quo.

Edited by canbuywontbuy

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hahahaha

yes, nothing to see here, move along, move along.

0.5% base rate - notch it up by 0.25% and what do you have? A base rate that is still 1.25% lower than the lowest ever base rate between 1694 and February 2009. If you said to a time traveller that we have a 0.5% base rate, a "strong, robust economy", low unemployment, high employment, and yet..... a very quiet housing market, they would scratch their heads....until you tell them the house price / wage ratio. Yes, all normal. Very very normal.

VIs like to describe it as "normal" - but VIs are always defending the status quo.

So true.

If this is the new normal then 'normal' is now a permanent state of depression.

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2015/06/heres-why-wsj-new-home-sales-headline-is-technically-correct-but-still-misleading-its-still-a-depression/

Here again is a chart that will allow you to see for yourself, starting in 2002 for historical perspective. 2002 was the bottom of a recession. In not one region have sales recovered to the levels recorded in 2002. The best region is the South, which is down 25% from the May 2002 level. The West is down roughly 35%. The Midwest is down nearly 2/3, and the Northeast is still at only roughly half of the 2002 level. So what we are talking about here ladies and gentlemen is a recovery all the way back to half or 3/4 of the level of the BOTTOM of the previous recession.

They can call it rebound, or recovery, or momentum, or whatever they want. It still looks like a depression to me.

DRSTOOLNEWHOMESALESYEARLYLT.gif

Edited by zugzwang

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As everything is ok we can put interest rates up to 5% at once.

They won't even put it up 0.25%. Because we're in the everything-is-amazing-when-you-live-in-denial mode. The actions don't match the words. The actions suggest the economy is doing very very shit, but the words state we're doing bloody well. It's hard to back up lies with actions that support the lie.

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So true.

If this is the new normal then 'normal' is now a permanent state of depression.

Your chart starts during a housing bubble so is (intentionally?) misleading.

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The figures are an obvious nonsense anyway (as nearly all the US official figures are). Just more absurdity, as usual, which for some astonishing reason some people still believe.

New Home Sales For May: Statistical Measurement Failure

What the headlines do not report is that the statistical margin of error at the 90% confidence level was plus or minus (+/-) 77.1%. This is the epitome of statistical measurement failure and it leads one to question the veracity of any of the Census Bureau’s economic reports.

Anyone who took statistics and econometrics in either undegrad or business school (or both, as was the case with me) knows that if you had turned in a data measurement and forecasting project with a margin of error of 77% at the 90% confidence level you would have received an “F.”

When a flawed statistic for one month is converted into an “annualized rate,” it compounds the error and produces an “annualized rate” that is not even remotely representative of the reality that statistical sample is supposed to represent. This is clearly the case with this latest new home sales report.

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/new-home-sales-for-may-statistical-measurement-failure/

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Good to see. As everything is ok we can put interest rates up to 5% at once.

DrHousingBubble, California focused housing blog that came into existence in 2006 to call Real Estate Bubble 1.0, noticing some lift in inventory on market outside of the prime market. Could be a passing Summer tickup for sellers, or maybe a sign of something else.

Past few weeks has had comments from blog visitors hinting they were seeing signs of this too. Vs past few years when ever lower inventory, Wall St/REITs/private landlords/Foreign investors and private buyers snapping everything up so fast. Then the ultra bubble super high prices, followed by new annual big value gains in Socal/San Fran prime of course.

Latest blog

Now with prices hitting a snag and inventory coming back you have to see how the media cycle is going to play into this. People are now used to prices moving up so quickly as if this was some law of nature. Los Angeles County is seeing normal inventory returning while Orange County is seeing a big jump in inventory. Let us take a look at the numbers.

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/california-home-prices-2015-flatline-sales-drop-inventory-orange-county-booms/

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Maybe the debt/money will never run out, for forever hpi. Lots of renter-savers on standby to volunteer their own savings if bubble does pop.

JDS, PMG secure $725M loan for 111 West 57th St.
AIG, Apollo funding clears way for supertall condo tower

June 30, 2015 04:40PM

111-West-57th-Street.jpg

Rendering of 111 West 57th Street (credit: Hayes Davidson/SHoP Architects) (inset: Kevin Maloney and Michael Stern)

Michael Stern’s JDS Development and Kevin Maloney’s Property Markets Group secured a $725 million construction loan from AIG and Apollo Global Management, paving the way for the rise of their supertall residential tower at 111 West 57th Street.

The $1 billion Billionaires’ Row spire will be among the tallest residential buildings in the Western Hemisphere upon completion in 2018, with a planned height of 1,438 feet and 80 stories.

AIG is the senior lender on the project, while Apollo is providing a mezzanine loan. AIG’s debt on the project stands at $400 million while Apollo’s mezzanine loan is for $325 million, sources told The Real Deal. The funding will allow JDS and Property Markets to refinance a $230 million loan provided by Annaly Capital, sources said.

JLL’s Aaron Appel, who represented the developers in the financing, declined to comment.

The combined loan expires in four years, which gives JDS and Property Markets time to sell the 60-unit building’s condos. Sales are expected to begin this fall, according to Crain’s, with the developers to begin erecting the SHoP Architects-designed tower in the coming weeks.

http://therealdeal.com/blog/2015/06/30/jds-pmg-secure-725m-loan-for-111-west-57th-st/

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