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pipllman

Wages Up, Unemployment Down

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BoE remains vigilant, having claimed it will raise IRs if wage growth takes off...

Wage growth needs to take off to catch up with current debt servicing costs. For the debt economy model, to acquire new growth we need larger wages to stop leverage's becoming ridiculous.

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BoE remains vigilant, having claimed it will raise IRs if wage growth takes off...

They'll try to suppress it by raising rates! :lol:

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Genuinely good news....but....these figures are coming at quite a price. of course the BoE will use words like "vigilant" like they've done in the last 6 years and keep ZIRP, while George doubles our debt every 5 years. A genuine recovery will trigger base rate increases - wake me up when that happens.

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Hopefully the bond mark sells off and the BoE is forced to raise rates. It would burst all the bubbles created by low IR's. Painful to fix at first but better in the long run .

Kind of like a shrapnel wound.

Would it better to be the first country to do that? Or to wait until the precedent has been set?

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No country will do it voluntarily as it means politicians and central bankers have been honest with the wealth bubbles they have created and benefit from. However I could be wrong..

In theory it would be better to get it over and done with first, have a significant deleveraging of debt and have an economy built on productivity and sound money.

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Would it better to be the first country to do that? Or to wait until the precedent has been set?

Well most likely find out tonight September is likely for FED, so if this continues BoE wont be far behind. Not that it matters for several years yet.

Problem UK has is that Osborne is about to embark on 3-4 years of considerable fiscal tightening which US arent.

he also has private sector wages running at 4-5% already in construction & retail/hospitality whilst public sector are stagnating coming into a tightening labour market. That cant last.

Not forgetting Dim Dave has promised to virtually stop immigration, which will act to tighten the labour market further (if it ever happened) to appease the 1 UKIP MP.

Edited by R K

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BoE will vigilantly move the goalposts to ensure ZIRP remains.

However the month the FED moves will trigger BoE move following month. Our interest rate policy is really just 'copy the FED'

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Tractor production numbers rising to unprecented levels.

If only it was tractor production. Or, in fact, any sort of production of physical products that are sold overseas.

Sadly it is likely to be supermarket shelf stackers, self employed taxi drivers and similar

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I have to say, that I know of no-one at all, who isnt on a payscale, that has seen a rise for some time.

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Meanwhile, back in the real world....friend offered a job after being made redundant 12 months ago, less ( equivalent ) money, 3 day week.

The recovery is here....

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I have to say, that I know of no-one at all, who isnt on a payscale, that has seen a rise for some time.

All our people had rises last year as did more than 50% of clients I guess depends which industry you are in

Our across the board rises first for 5 years though

Edited by Greg Bowman

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Meanwhile, back in the real world....friend offered a job after being made redundant 12 months ago, less ( equivalent ) money, 3 day week.

The recovery is here....

Our recruitment consultant (we run our own small agency to mitigate our own recruitment fees) just lost two placements both offered alternative jobs £5k and £8k more respectively.

There is some real tractor production going on

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I have to say, that I know of no-one at all, who isnt on a payscale, that has seen a rise for some time.

Must be IT where a quick bit of onshoring/offshoring will soon put paid to any skills bubbles!

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Well most likely find out tonight September is likely for FED, so if this continues BoE wont be far behind. Not that it matters for several years yet.

Problem UK has is that Osborne is about to embark on 3-4 years of considerable fiscal tightening which US arent.

he also has private sector wages running at 4-5% already in construction & retail/hospitality whilst public sector are stagnating coming into a tightening labour market. That cant last.

Not forgetting Dim Dave has promised to virtually stop immigration, which will act to tighten the labour market further (if it ever happened) to appease the 1 UKIP MP.

I really don't think you can ask for more stimulus than the Tories have given since 2010. Tsparis would be proud of Cameron's performance.

We ran a 4.8% structural deficit in 2014/15. And it's worked in some respects, we have had the fastest economic growth of any large European economy since, no argument; we have near full employment and Africans queuing up at Calais to escape the misery of the rest of the Eurozone. Take it from the horses mouth...France is not a good place,; their pals that have made it are presumably filling them in on the booty on offer in Uk plc with their newly acquired smart phones having escaped the Eurozone depression and mass unemployment.

At the end of the day to ask for even more borrowing so we can go beyond being the fastest growing economy seems a bit reckless. We have not had any austerity, just borrowing like there is no tomorrow.

Edited by crashmonitor

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Must be IT where a quick bit of onshoring/offshoring will soon put paid to any skills bubbles!

Best year ever actually so far. Onshoring/offshoring actually is more bouyant in a recession where quick finance led fixes are gone into blindly. Infrastructure services and solution selling are dominated by UK businesses quite surprising really. Indian off shore businesses only pick up the out of hours crumbs in these areas.

Edited by Greg Bowman

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Well most likely find out tonight September is likely for FED, so if this continues BoE wont be far behind. Not that it matters for several years yet.

Problem UK has is that Osborne is about to embark on 3-4 years of considerable fiscal tightening which US arent.

he also has private sector wages running at 4-5% already in construction & retail/hospitality whilst public sector are stagnating coming into a tightening labour market. That cant last.

Not forgetting Dim Dave has promised to virtually stop immigration, which will act to tighten the labour market further (if it ever happened) to appease the 1 UKIP MP.

and the 4 million UKIP voters (and most people to the right of the decimated Labour Party).

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and the 4 million UKIP voters (and most people to the right of the decimated Labour Party).

well theyre irrelevant obviously cause they arent in parliament and Dave has a majority.

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and the 4 million UKIP voters (and most people to the right of the decimated Labour Party).

Carswell has stated he will vote with Government. Rather disgraceful as a lot of UKIP votes in the North came from natural Labour voters, so that protest worked then

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So BoE..

......'We will raise interest rates when unemployment falls to 7%'...oh, no we wont.....

......'We will raise interest rate when wage growth takes off against inflation [inflation 0.15, wages increase 2.7%]...sh@t, what excuse can we use now?'

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