Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Frizzers

Housing Market Grinds To A Halt

Recommended Posts

Why isn't the sub-title "Annual house price growth could drop to 4.6% over the next five years..." as that would get you to exactly the same number?

That is the kind of middle-of-the-road figure that they all seem to give out and is almost always well off, given the boom-bust nature of the market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) warns of an "acute shortage of supply" as Britain's ageing population of home owners moves less frequently and focuses instead on helping their children on to the housing ladder.

Each surveyor had just 52 for-sale properties on the books in May, the organisation found, the lowest monthly figure registered in nearly four decades.

Surveyors, EAs, white goods sellers, DIY shops, et al - best get used to the situation. Nobody's buying because the country's running out of fools.

And specifically to surveyors and EAs - your livelihoods are at risk if you do not subscribe to the idea of affordable housing.

Edited by canbuywontbuy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Surveyors, EAs, white goods sellers, DIY shops, et al - best get used to the situation. Nobody's buying because the country's running out of fools.

And specifically to surveyors and EAs - your livelihoods are at risk if you do not subscribe to the idea of affordable housing.

Could easily change that to, no-one is selling because who wants to sell a guaranteed cash machine! :P

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It makes financial sense that people hang onto their own properties because of low interest rates - if they need to move they can raise financing from their existing property."

See. Don't sell, just buy yourself another cash machine! :P

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I strip to my underwear and do the Frank Skinner dance, but it hasn't caused HPC, yet. Maybe I need to do it infront of the most expensive house around here.

Just like Mr.Hoodie (Mead), Telegraph reporting prices will still rise in a sickly market of low inventory on market (let's not have Excuse-Fest when prices fall, with boomers sat on £Trillions in equity).

And... Broadbent has suggested mortgage growth no.1 concern (not values/prices at all), and dismissed debt as being an issue (so many own outright / equity rich). So sickly market continuing, or nearing hpc? Carney's housing status is unknown... perhaps relocated to new rental before HPC (possibly bought according to others)... his wife is related to serious UK wealth as I remember it... some of that name selling up their Scottish estates... yep her sister married to this Baron... 'fabulously wealthy family/dynasty'.

June 11, 2014

Deputy BoE Governor, Broadbent.

"Andy [Haldane] is the master of the colourful phrase but on this I disagree with him," said Broadbent, who instead identified risks in the UK's housing market as the greatest threat to the country's economic outlook. He went on to say that the Bank will not directly intervene on house prices, but is instead only interested in "the rate of growth of mortgages, which is today very low".

http://www.cityam.co...ace-mp-grilling

2 October 2014

Ben Broadbent agrees that interest rate rises will cause problems for "a certain number of borrowers" but is clearly of the view that the concern has been overdone.

He points out that the total amount of debt in the economy is actually lower than it was five years ago.

"I would lean against the view I think that any rise in interest rates would cause calamity for a very large number of households. I think that's an exaggeration of where we are at the moment," he told me.

Broadbent doesn't think higher interest rates will lead to a significant rise in the number of repossessions.

Edited by Venger

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know the idea that there's a massive BTL boom going on is denied a lot on HPC.... instead preferring to think of BTLers selling up... if they are then many times a house property sells to another BTLer. Seen that many times over, year after year.

11 June 2015

Buy-to-let surge leads to smallest number of homes on sale since 1978: Estate agents put up average of just 52 properties a branch in May


The number of homes for sale has plunged to its lowest level since records began in 1978 – as a buy-to-let boom takes an increasing amount of property off the market.

UK estate agents put up for sale just 52 properties per branch in May, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.

This is the lowest figure since its survey began 37 years ago, and marks a significant drop from 60 properties just one year ago.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3119201/Buy-let-surge-leads-smallest-number-homes-sale-1978.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If there is also an increase in the proportion of cash transactions where will the mortgage demand come from as there is not much to buy? Presumably mortgage rates will continue to fall which will put a strain on the smaller building socities. And for the money supply - deflation ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The national sales and stocks charts from the RICS survey:

RICS_0515a.gif

Back to blowing off tramps in the parks for EAs then.

At least for the ones in London. The rest of the country never gave it up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The national sales and stocks charts from the RICS survey:

RICS_0515a.gif

I was having a conversation about how few houses were transacting i my home town (North).

The figures were bad 2 years ago; they are even worse now.

A stupid woman EA barged here way in, saying 'Houses are selling!' Ive sold loads this month, people I work with have sold loads.

. . . Some have completed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not moving because there is nothing suitable to buy that is worth the money they are asking....

Not selling but renting out and moving and renting waiting for something that is suitable that is worth the money they are asking...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The whole point of this article (sponsored by RICS) is to issue the tired-out "better by now before prices rise XX%" line. Haha. Yeah, right - houses aren't selling. I know, let's put the prices up. Why don't journos just look at RightMove and see all the reductions?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So, transactions / volumes are down, this is due to a lack of supply (new build and existing), and this will translate into higher prices because demand is still there.

I suppose that is logically defensible, survey does show new enquiries are up and instructions are down.

Ppl aren't selling, which is why there is so much shit on the market.

Good that market is recognised as broken but is this a hpc positive development? It would be if reversed (I.e. vendors up and enquiries down) surely?

Edited by growlers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So, transactions / volumes are down, this is due to a lack of supply (new build and existing), and this will translate into higher prices because demand is still there.

I suppose that is logically defensible, survey does show new enquiries are up and instructions are down.

Ppl aren't selling, which is why there is so much shit on the market.

Good that market is recognised as broken but is this a hpc positive development? It would be if reversed (I.e. vendors up and enquiries down) surely?

Demand isn't there, in so far as people can't get mortgages no matter how much they want to overpay for a house

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm guessing people can't move. Prices still slightly shy of the August 2007 peak pretty much means many purchasers haven't got the equity to. Add in all property sold since about 2003 and there will be little gain outside London, by then Brown had done his worst and the destruction of the economy was inevitable. So 50% of all housing stock with insufficient equity gains to move or at least not the psychological incentive.

I guess folk don't like selling out at a loss either or merely break even after a decade of pouring money into a money pit with new kitchens. bathrooms, windows.

Jeeze houses have been the Mother of all dead money this last decade.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The whole point of this article (sponsored by RICS) is to issue the tired-out "better by now before prices rise XX%" line. Haha. Yeah, right - houses aren't selling. I know, let's put the prices up. Why don't journos just look at RightMove and see all the reductions?

I must admit for a front page piece it does read like the journo was getting a tuggie from the RICS bloke.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why isn't the sub-title "Annual house price growth could drop to 4.6% over the next five years..." as that would get you to exactly the same number?

Because.....the bloke that wrote it has a massive mortgage and 6 Buy Toilets ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Next General Election   93 members have voted

    1. 1. When do you predict the next general election will be held?


      • 2019
      • 2020
      • 2021
      • 2022

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.