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jiltedjen

Low Volumes For Sale

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i'm in cornwall, have noticed there are very few properties on sale. Seems low properties for sale seems to correlate with price falls. 2008 in a falling market volumes were very low, but not this low!

i can only assume that after 6 months of not selling lots of sellers have taken their properties off the market? seen plenty of houses with weathered 'for sale' boards up, but no-where to be found online.

how long can this stand-off last? nothing seems to be selling. price falls seem rare.

don't think the government is going to pump the market for at least 3 or 4 years for the next election, they almost shot their load too early last-time, cant imagine they will risk that again. will leave it much later.

other that the very brief January 2014 blip prices have been static around here since 2004, so 11 years of basically static market, lots of real-term falls i guess.

So whats next? slow grind-down with probates and forced sellers slowly setting lower prices? (what forced sellers?) future doesn't look like it holds any price rises. I can see volumes dropping further and further, estate agents are bound to be taking heavy losses and only getting worse. Local radio is full of estate agent adverts 'we will give our 21st property sales commission to charity this year' its june?!

another 12 months before we get to sellers chasing each other down? the London money tap certainly seems to have shut of.


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So whats next? slow grind-down with probates and forced sellers slowly setting lower prices? (what forced sellers?) future doesn't look like it holds any price rises. I can see volumes dropping further and further, estate agents are bound to be taking heavy losses and only getting worse. Local radio is full of estate agent adverts 'we will give our 21st property sales commission to charity this year' its june?!

another 12 months before we get to sellers chasing each other down? the London money tap certainly seems to have shut of.

inception.jpg

What do you mean about the London money tap being shut off? Are there some hints suggesting that?

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All of the large houses seem to be priced for London buyers, all large houses are astromically high for local wages. Issue is, that prices are set at the margins. So only take one London buyer making one overpriced purchase to make hundreds of sellers to think they can wait for their own London buyer.

So we are seeing houses on/off sale for 5+ years.

seems some London buyers did buy cashing in the London bubble early 2014. But these seem to have stopped now, and properties are being taken off the market (very very low volume for sale)

Without any forced sellers, or raising interest rates, it's a horrific stale-mate. estate agents must be bricking themselves. It's looking like a very long drawn out waiting game now.

I guess the young have time on their sides, all these greedy oldies will simply have to be carried out in boxes.

seems to be a three tiered market.

1. Properties with '106 section' which never sell as even with 20% off prices, no local can buy them. Keep seeing lots of these on local 'buy and sell' Facebook groups, people can't shift them. I do enjoy telling them to lower their prices or chase the market down.

2. an extremely thin slice of properties for sale which sit in the magic zone of not being a section 106 and also not appealing to London buyers (due to being in a less attractive town) these are all at least 30% overpriced. Based on early 2014 prices plus 10%. these have all sat for 6 months plus

3. Loads of country houses waiting for London buyers who will never come

I'm 26, I'm hoping health issues will force plenty of sales in the next 5-10 years. seems the situation of prices grinding lower will start again (like it was before 2014). It's a shame the mini-boom pre the election has given false hope to sellers. Will take another year before that glimmer of hope fades.

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"All of the large houses seem to be priced for London buyers, all large houses are astromically high for local wages. Issue is, that prices are set at the margins. So only take one London buyer making one overpriced purchase to make hundreds of sellers to think they can wait for their own London buyer.

So we are seeing houses on/off sale for 5+ years."

yep, agreed. 300 k plus properties largely bought by retirees selling up in South East, Bristol etc. And as you say bidding up the few nice places, which heightens seller expection across the board...and forces agents to price high to get the instruction, this explains the absurd kite flying of so much dross.....It's always been like this in west Cornwall at least as far as I can remember, where average wages which can't be more than 15k, continue to stagnate.

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Four months on from the last post and the stalemate situation remains. "It'll pick up after the election". It didn't. "It'll pick up after the school holidays". It didn't. Otherwise it's the same stale, overpriced houses swilling around.

In the north of the South West larger houses sit on the books of one estate agent and then move on to another esate agent for the same price. If reductions happen they are paltry and the house remains unsold.

An estate agent told me last week "I'm sorry to say that some estate agents are overvaluing property in order to get the house on to their books". It's refreshing to hear some undeniably true words.

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Well since starting this topic there's now loads on for sale.

And at good prices also. the last month or so much more has come on, and plenty of reductions.

Plymouth is heading down nicely.

China's black Monday, redundancies in various companies around Plymouth, BTL tax etc. Not sure what changed things suddenly.

I think the low volumes was the absolute peak of BTL madness. suddenly they have moved from expansion to contraction.

the HTB bubble had come and gone. Prices seem to be heading quickly to early 2013. and with no bubbles on the horizon I can easily see prices grind lower for the next two years.

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"General Election, Summer Holidays, Winter, Christmas, Brexit". All of these have been excuses I've heard as to why people aren't putting houses up for sale. I was surprised today to find that not all houses for sale are actually, well, for sale!

Today we offered a low but fair (ish) cash offer on an adequate house that has been on the market for three days. Our offer was declined as the vendor had already had two asking price offers from buyers in short chains. The EA added that the vendor was taking their property off the market until they found somewhere to buy. The house is still on RightMove but you just can't buy it.

This is on top of the houses that are not selling, dropping off Right Move and then popping back on as newly listed with a new agent for the same price.

The housing market is broken. Bust. Not fit for purpose. It's a mess.

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RightMove's February report said Agents had on average 54 properties to sell but that figure included sold and under offer. I thought that was a useless bit of information because if the property is sold or under offer it isn't for sale.

So I counted the number of properties actually for sale and available through the seven local agents I've had most viewings through.

189 houses available in a five mile radius of a popular South West town = 27 properties per agent

Lowest figure is a new, spritely independent with 13 properties for sale (run by 2 people) and the highest is Knight Frank (run by lots of people) with 45.

Are there too few properties for sale or too many estate agents?

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