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Italian Brokers Cheer Home Price Drop As A Path To Recovery

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Prices will keep falling until they are 20 percent lower than their pre-crisis high, Fitch Ratings said in a report last week. “Regulatory uncertainty, slow economic recovery and high unemployment curb the supply and demand for home-acquisition loans,” it said.

May be that (20%) lower than pre-crisis is the sensible price range even in UK?

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Prices will keep falling until they are 20 percent lower than their pre-crisis high, Fitch Ratings said in a report last week. “Regulatory uncertainty, slow economic recovery and high unemployment curb the supply and demand for home-acquisition loans,” it said.

May be that (20%) lower than pre-crisis is the sensible price range even in UK?

Probably is now. In 2007 we needed 40% off, now 20% off 2007 might be ok.

The thing is 20% off 2007 in London is a 50-60% drop now and in the shires it's looking like 20-30% in sale prices and 50% in asking prices !!!

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“I hope prices will stagnate or even keep falling,” said Claudio Parenti, one of the heads of Rome for Tecnocasa, the country’s largest property broker. “Along with easier credit conditions and lower mortgage costs, that will help match supply and demand and increase transactions.”

I can never see a British estate agent saying this! Although one lives in hope!

As Italian home prices head for an eighth straight year of decline, some real estate agents are cheering on the drop.

8 years of drops! we would be lucky to get 8 weeks in London! :P

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I can never see a British estate agent saying this! Although one lives in hope!

If business is going the way it is going for another 2-3 years they will change their tune.

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I still think 20% off 2007 in the UK is quite conservative given that for the majority, wages have gone hardly anywhere since 2007. Didn't we get -15% off 2007 prices in 2009-10? That didn't prompt any real restoration of confidence or increase in sales volume (should have gone balls deep in London property in hindsight, but nobody I can think of was a "rest of UK bear / London bull" and actually called that one correctly)

I think about 30% off 2007 would represent value / reality outside London. London will not fall that far - the world has changed.

Said that a while back and was effectively called an idiot by certain members of HPC who have been talking up a looming 50%+ mega collapse just around the corner for as long as I've been a member...

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Followed by massive stimulus intervention by the authorities. 0.5% $£YTrillions in QE.

It didn't/wasn't allowed to reach the stage where bad debt was tested, and new entrants could enter with steady sales volume. It was artificially corrected with a choice to protect values.

The world can change again.

Balls deep? If you're so certain, buy. Quite a few HPIers are certainly going to get their chins bruised into the next HPC.

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I guess it all depends if we get a dollar rate hike then all bets are off.

The money in London property may not be leveraged on that property but a lot will be leveraged on some form of company or assets in another country.

If that 9 trillion unwinds then lord knows what will happen.

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“I hope prices will stagnate or even keep falling,” said Claudio Parenti, one of the heads of Rome for Tecnocasa, the country’s largest property broker. “Along with easier credit conditions and lower mortgage costs, that will help match supply and demand and increase transactions.”
I can never see a British estate agent saying this! Although one lives in hope!

I did write this in another thread earlier today:-

It's got way past the point where surely many Estate Agents are hoping prices fall just so they can survive. The banks are a law unto themselves (hard to tell if they're bothered by a low-volume-sale housing market), but EAs must rely on a decent volume of sales. Makes you wonder if EAs are frustrated when sellers come to them with daft prices, and they just KNOW the house is going to be stuck on the market for 6 months doing nothing, by which time the seller considers dropping from £350K to £348K, then takes it off the market 3 months later. That's a loss of time and expense to the EA. An EA will make more money selling 3 times as many properties at 25-30% reduction from the get-go. Easier mortgage approvals, more completions, more money. Are they f**king thick or what?!

The Italian EAs are acting like I'd expect EAs to expect - "we need activity and transactions". UK EAs seem to be acting all aloof, like infinite house price rises are desireable even if it means they lose money themselves?

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