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House Price Crash Forum

where next for the Money Lenders?


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Estate agents are reporting a declining market yet "Mortgage Lending Breaks Record" the Council of Mortgage Lenders say.

Bearing in mind at least Nationwides house price index is based on loans advanced/agreed what do you guesstimate their next monthly figures to be?

The last one was +2.0 ish.

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Even if house prices fall you'd expect mortgages to go up. The last few years only 10%(wild guess) of houses have actually changed hands. Over the next few years the next 10% will change hands. Even if the prices are lower than now, the price would be higher than when they were sold before.

Hope that makes sense.

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That's all very well .The problem is it's all that mortgaging and re-mortgaging that the likes of Nationwide use to assess how their "model" house is rising in value.Which means whilst every other market indicator points south theirs could still be trumpeted by the BBC and Co. as rising.

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All UK sales Q2 04 299986

All UK sales Q1 95 173412

All UK sales Q1 95 to Q 04 8 million or thereabouts, I’ll go through the quarters individually & update later)

GLB sales Q1 95 to Q2 04 1482000

All UK looks like sales of around 33% of all 24 m properties.

Do LR figures include re-mortgaging?

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