Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
breezi

How Many More Times Can One Website Be Wrong

Recommended Posts

This is my first post so careful. I decided to join for one reason.

To question everyones knowledge.

I realise there are many inteligent people on the site but cannot help but feel that so many of you get it wrong so often

1/ I remember reading a post of how the £ is going to collapse when the US interest rates rise. They are expected to rise agin today and the £ this week has gained strength.

2/ House prices have gone up and as yet show no signs of coming down.

3/ Interest rates are going to go up.

4/ HPI would be negative by the end of the year.

The only point I can remember over the past few weeks that you guys have been right about was the price of gold.

Dr Bubb recently commented that he expects the £ to go down as far as £1.70 by the end of the year. No chance of that now I suggest.

If I was a potential investor looking at this site for advice I would be well and truly out of pocket with maybe a little gold in my bank.

You now really are losing credibility and probably need filing in the same folder as VI's and EA's.

Prey tell me all now, whats your advice for 2006 so I can cross it out and invest in whats left.

By the way, I feel house prices will fall by 10% in 2006 but can you lot call that one as you are probably 30% over the odds now anyway.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is my first post so careful. I decided to join for one reason.

To question everyones knowledge.

I realise there are many inteligent people on the site but cannot help but feel that so many of you get it wrong so often

1/ I remember reading a post of how the £ is going to collapse when the US interest rates rise. They are expected to rise agin today and the £ this week has gained strength.

2/ House prices have gone up and as yet show no signs of coming down.

3/ Interest rates are going to go up.

4/ HPI would be negative by the end of the year.

The only point I can remember over the past few weeks that you guys have been right about was the price of gold.

Dr Bubb recently commented that he expects the £ to go down as far as £1.70 by the end of the year. No chance of that now I suggest.

If I was a potential investor looking at this site for advice I would be well and truly out of pocket with maybe a little gold in my bank.

You now really are losing credibility and probably need filing in the same folder as VI's and EA's.

Prey tell me all now, whats your advice for 2006 so I can cross it out and invest in whats left.

By the way, I feel house prices will fall by 10% in 2006 but can you lot call that one as you are probably 30% over the odds now anyway.

You are pretty much correct in what you say - only a self-deluder or fool would disagree with you.

However, one thing I have learnt in life is that the fact vthat a prediction hasn't come true does not mean it wont happen, sooner or later - I happen to think there's a 40% chance of a one-off crash and a 60% chance of annual falls of between 2 and 5 %, for maybe 3 or 4 years.

I think some people are a little too sure of themselves, and say things will happen with too much certainty (predictions of what interest rates will be in 2 months time, with the little smug, knowing wink emoticon always make me squirm a bit, as if they have a personal mole on the MPC). I never really take much notice of people with too much self - assuredness. No-one really knows what will happen, we can only come up with a balanced opinion, at the end of the day

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why spend so long to write all that out,

this is just a forum for people to express their opinions.

They dont state that what they say is 100% fact or will 100% happen.

Your just another troll wanting to create some friction.

People on here analyse conditions & problem and say what should happen/be done for the welfare of the economy or best result. A lot of the results have been opposite to what a lot of people think of this site, and probably wont be for the welfare of the economy as we will find in a year or 2's time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest struthitsruth

Well breezi, I have to say that I like your post.

Welcome to HPC

:)

My understanding is that this website provides space for a range of opinions and positions, and part of the fun is to see if those brave enough to state their predictions are anywhere near the mark.

There are volumes of threads, many of which cover the same topic, or adopt the same stance, so I may not have read the ones you have, but

1) Yeah, I've kept an eye on the exchange rate more keenly since that talk in various posts of either sterling plummeting or interest rates having to rise. I notice that neither has happened - so you have a point.

2) House prices have gone up, but the rate of increase is slowing.

3) Interest rates haven't moved, I'm not sure if your post is saying that you think they will go up, or if their going up is a prediction that hasn't come true - I say, wait until after Xmas, and more likely around March April time.

4) As in point 2, the HPI is in decline

The thing is the time scale is only guesswork masquerading as a prediction, but the economic indicators are actually there to be analysed - and it's my assertion that that's really all you can expect from this site, analysis, along with some interesting views, humour, piss-takes, bitterness, resentment, smug self congratulation

Investment advice ?

Nah

B)

Edited by struthitsruth

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What's our advice to a person like you?

How about

AWOOGA, LOSER

Why are these not legitimate questions?

Why would anyone want to post on these forums if they oppose your viewpoint, if that is how they get treated.

I think this post deserves a little more respect.

Thank you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why are these not legitimate questions?

Why would anyone want to post on these forums if they oppose your viewpoint, if that is how they get treated.

I think this post deserves a little more respect.

Thank you.

Well said Barry

breezi

I think that saying that all these predictions are wrong is incorrect – it’s the timescale that is wrong.

The crash will come if we wait – as anyone can see the problems with our economy or do you think we can continually borrow our way out of problems?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why are these not legitimate questions?

Why would anyone want to post on these forums if they oppose your viewpoint, if that is how they get treated.

I think this post deserves a little more respect.

Thank you.

Barry, I agree with you. This guy has rightly challenged people who have so far been proved largely wrong, and the Awooga - loser comment he got is, IMO, just further evidence of the smug over-certain views I often see on this forum.

Far more constructive to defend the bear predictions that have been made, or admit that they were wrong. We often talk about the wisdom of taking a contrarian view (lots of references to sheeple here) yet when one' put forward it's ridiculed. If we put newcomers off because they disagree with the party line, we'll just become a site perceived as run by mad HPC zealots.

Edited by Casual Observer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On point 2: "House prices have gone up but the rate of increase is slowing".

The headline data hides large regional and property type variations.

In West Sussex the Nationwide has previously reported that prices have fallen year on year by 12% in real terms on detached houses. Worse, the excess supply continues to increase.

New homes have seen falls of 5% (not including incentives).

Only yesterday, according to the ODPM, average house prices in London, the South East and the East were all lower during October than they had been during the same month of the previous year.

They state that prices in the East have seen the biggest fall, dropping by 1% during the 12 months, followed by the South East where they are 0.4% lower, and London where they have fallen by 0.2%, while in the South West they have remained static.

Location, Location, Location.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2/ House prices have gone up and as yet show no signs of coming down.

4/ HPI would be negative by the end of the year.

HPI has dropped from double digits to (in real terms) nil, your above points are clearly wrong.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is my first post so careful. I decided to join for one reason.

To question everyones knowledge.

I realise there are many inteligent people on the site but cannot help but feel that so many of you get it wrong so often

1/ I remember reading a post of how the £ is going to collapse when the US interest rates rise. They are expected to rise agin today and the £ this week has gained strength.

2/ House prices have gone up and as yet show no signs of coming down.

3/ Interest rates are going to go up.

4/ HPI would be negative by the end of the year.

The only point I can remember over the past few weeks that you guys have been right about was the price of gold.

Dr Bubb recently commented that he expects the £ to go down as far as £1.70 by the end of the year. No chance of that now I suggest.

If I was a potential investor looking at this site for advice I would be well and truly out of pocket with maybe a little gold in my bank.

You now really are losing credibility and probably need filing in the same folder as VI's and EA's.

Prey tell me all now, whats your advice for 2006 so I can cross it out and invest in whats left.

By the way, I feel house prices will fall by 10% in 2006 but can you lot call that one as you are probably 30% over the odds now anyway.

Welcome breezi, this forum has a fair cross section of people - take most of what people say with a pince of salt. Some of the ignorance is astounding, some of the knowledge is astounding also.

Make you're own mind up on all these things. If you turn out to be wrong, then so be it - be man enough to admit it and move on. There are some nutters on here who can't ride the wave and just stick with their position no matter what.

One day, presumably they may be right (but then so will the people predicting an asteroid destroying mankind) in the short term (i.e. next 12 months) I don't think prices are going anywhere either up or down.

But thats my opinion at the moment and has been for the last 10 months - basically I've been right and most on the forum have been wrong, but so what ? - I'm no better off for it and it counts for bugger all.

Take the views and information on here as 'balance' and don't get hung up about it. Some of the people on here seem so obsessed, miserable and practically depressed. Don't fall into that trap, by thinking this website has The Answer because it doesn't.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In question to the US rates. IF they go above the UK's and their savings also become more desirable, my money is going out of the UK. Do you think thats good for Britain if lots of people do the same?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

People differ in their view on the HPI develpment mainly in two ways. Some people, like myself, believe in som form of mean reversion, or at least reversion to a slowly growing trend. For us it is not particulary interesting how much prices rise before they fall, we beileve that the higher they go the more they will eventually decline. In constrast to this view there is also the stand that HPI moves like a random walk. The best estimate on future prices, at any point in time, is then the current level. Any innovation to HPI thus have erlasting significance. It is quite natural that these people are more interested in short term prediction than the former group; the current development are really the only guide. They shake their head in irony over the bearish guys (perfectly predictable) prediction failure period by period. I understand them well. However the Bearish people should not be so cocerned about short term prediction. If HPI mean reverts the only thing you need to do is to wait and save your money, so that you some day can get your bargain on a house on forced sale... :lol:

It also reminds me on a story of forecast competition. Two people compeet on forcasting whether or not a person waiting on a bus-stop will get on her bus. Person A has a simple forecasting strategy; at any moment she suggests that the person will not get on the bus. Person B on the other hand, tries to base his prediction on observations in the horison, but at that distance it is difficult to observe anything at all. Thus person B, trying to spot the bus, makes a number of forecast mistakes, as most of the time what observed is not the relevant bus. Person A makes only one mistake; that is the mistake when the person on the bus stop actually gets on. Person A is like the bullish people: It is allways very safe to predict that next period will be just like the current period, and most of the time they will be right! The bearish people are like person B. They know prices will turn down sometime, but it is difficult to know exactly when, and by trying to make this prediction based on the information they recieve, most of the time they will make prediciton errors! But certainly I find it more interesting to hear the comments and analysis of the bearish people than the cheap predictions of the bulls. They have been in their dull position too long, and most of them does not even care to discuss why they do not think there is reverson in HPI. <_<

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My prediction has been (for several years) that HPI will slow down, then go negative, and lead to 'reversion to mean'-type falls of around 40% in real terms.

I offer no time-scale, I simply expect that there will not be a flare-up into a new boom before the big bust happens.

Other people predict different things, some more plausible than others. Bruno defined one end of the spectrum, with his expectations of total economic meltdown on a global scale within a few months. One or two bulls defined the other end of the scale with predictions that used to be "the boom will continue" but have slowly declined to "the boom is taking a breather", and now "GSD for a while then back to boom".

I'm sticking with my view that the market is cyclical, but that the period of the cycles varies from cycle to cycle.

Once the up cycle has ended (looks imminent) and the down cycle begins, we can expect a re-run of previous cycles.

Edited by rockdoctor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is my first post so careful. I decided to join for one reason.

To question everyones knowledge.

I realise there are many inteligent people on the site but cannot help but feel that so many of you get it wrong so often

1/ I remember reading a post of how the £ is going to collapse when the US interest rates rise. They are expected to rise agin today and the £ this week has gained strength.

2/ House prices have gone up and as yet show no signs of coming down.

3/ Interest rates are going to go up.

4/ HPI would be negative by the end of the year.

The only point I can remember over the past few weeks that you guys have been right about was the price of gold.

Dr Bubb recently commented that he expects the £ to go down as far as £1.70 by the end of the year. No chance of that now I suggest.

If I was a potential investor looking at this site for advice I would be well and truly out of pocket with maybe a little gold in my bank.

You now really are losing credibility and probably need filing in the same folder as VI's and EA's.

Prey tell me all now, whats your advice for 2006 so I can cross it out and invest in whats left.

By the way, I feel house prices will fall by 10% in 2006 but can you lot call that one as you are probably 30% over the odds now anyway.

Breezi: "2/ House prices have gone up and as yet show no signs of coming down."

OH REALLY??! -- Funny - There must be thousands of people who have noticed that all over the uk - houses that were on the market for "£340k" in the summer of 2003 are still on the market now -- but for anything between £255k to £289k!! And the same accross the uk in all sectors!! The Nationwide/Halifax "figures" which tell us prices are still "going up" are TOTAL FICTION - and anyone with 2 brain cells knows that!!

What rubbish you talk!! How many of us know people who are desperately trying to sell their properties - and have been trying for anything between 12 and 20+ months!??!! AND - they have knocked off 10-25% of their asking prices!! AND STILL they can't sell them!! I know of dozens and dozens in this position! The EA's totally over-valued the properties in 2003 - and now they are priced FAR lower then they were 18 months to 2+ years ago!! Sorry - but you are talking a lot of cr@p!!

"

Edited by eric pebble

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Breezi

has picked out opinions of some members on this board and so in that sense he is right in what he says, but his only purpose is to wind you all up. Bubb made a prediction regards Sterling, up to press it's wrong, it may not reach that target by year end. Predictions are dependent on factors the predictor cannot control, hence they are best guess's in a sense.

Everybody has opinions, you pays ya money and take's your chances. In anycase housing corrections don't happen over night. OK there are some young rakes on this site a tad on the over zealous side, that want and expect a crash anyday soon, but thats just the ignorance of youth.

It's easy coming on here rubbishing others predictions, care to share yours with the board perchance :unsure:

Welcome back :rolleyes:

Edited by Catch22

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As regards to point number 1. Forex is a strange beast, unless you follow the trend or are very lucky you will lose your shirt. I've given up trying to understand even the month by month trends on it as too many short term factors impact the market.

long term you can see the dollar and the pound declining. How they do compared to each other is going to be very hard to guess.

Edited by eek

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest struthitsruth

What rubbish you talk!! How many of us know people who are desperately trying to sell their properties - and have been trying for anything between 12 and 20+ months!??!! AND - they have knocked off 10-25% of their asking prices!! AND STILL they can't sell them!! I know of dozens and dozens in this position! The EA's totally over-valued the properties in 2003 - and now they are priced FAR lower then they were 18 months to 2+ years ago!! Sorry - but you are talking a lot of cr@p!!

"

Hmmmm

Wasn't breezi commenting on the losing of credibility ? Your reply eric doesn't help with that one.

Although there appears to be a disparity between the official figures and the anecdotals, I would go with Tester on this one.

On point 2: "House prices have gone up but the rate of increase is slowing".

The headline data hides large regional and property type variations.

Location, Location, Location.

so whatever you know from the ground, you still might not be aware of the bigger picture.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmmmm

Wasn't breezi commenting on the losing of credibility ? Your reply eric doesn't help with that one.

Although there appears to be a disparity between the official figures and the anecdotals, I would go with Tester on this one.

so whatever you know from the ground, you still might not be aware of the bigger picture.

OK; Tester Says: "On point 2: "House prices have gone up but the rate of increase is slowing".

The headline data hides large regional and property type variations.

In West Sussex the Nationwide has previously reported that prices have fallen year on year by 12% in real terms on detached houses. Worse, the excess supply continues to increase.

New homes have seen falls of 5% (not including incentives).

Only yesterday, according to the ODPM, average house prices in London, the South East and the East were all lower during October than they had been during the same month of the previous year.

They state that prices in the East have seen the biggest fall, dropping by 1% during the 12 months, followed by the South East where they are 0.4% lower, and London where they have fallen by 0.2%, while in the South West they have remained static."

The fact is -- prices have not risen in many many parts of the UK -in many cases are hugely down -& many people cannot have failed to notice this. The Halifax's and many of the others like them should be investigated and fined heavily....

Edited by eric pebble

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If I was a potential investor looking at this site for advice I would be well and truly out of pocket with maybe a little gold in my bank.

You now really are losing credibility and probably need filing in the same folder as VI's and EA's.

Prey tell me all now, whats your advice for 2006 so I can cross it out and invest in whats left.

I have highlighted the words "you" and "your" from your post because although you make some very good points, the end of your post sounds like there is only one person posting on this site and that person is losing credibility.

You say that if you were a potential investor looking at this site for advice you would have ended up out of pocket, but this is a discussion forum. If you were a potential investor and you decided to get advice by walking into a pub and listening to the conversations there you probably wouldn't do very well from that either. You could get lucky and end up listening to some one very clued up or you could end up listening to a complete idiot. Either way you not really invest according to what someone said on the internet although it can lead you to do your own research to look at an area of investment you hadn't considered before.

I am concerned that the word "you" is a reference to the bearish HPC members and not a reference to the bullish HPC members. Many of the bullish HPCers share your views, are they losing credibility as well?

I don't understand why a bear on this site is referred to as representing the website's intentions but a bull on this site is not. Surely we are having a debate rather than giving advice?

Surely the bulls on this site are offering one kind of advice and the bears another (with regard to property), whilst other HPCers give advice on other areas of investment and you have to accept that they may or may not know what they are talking about with regard to that investment area.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I actually share the bears camp. But the views expressed by bears on this site have been proven wrong this year.

I for one am sad about that.

But you cannot go on year on year saying the same thing - eventually you will be right.

Keep calling red at the casino and eventually it lands on red. Doesn't make me a professional gambler.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This web site is set up to discuss the HPC - how big the crash will be and when it will happen.

Some people (bulls) do not think there will be a massive crash, or a massive boom - they predict small falls /flat prices followed by small rises.

I have been told enless ly I have no place posting as I am a BTL landlord & the site is not for me but for FTB's and STR's.

I actually disagree, as I think a discussion needs both sides.

I have stopped quoting my own BTL example as I just get a load of abuse. However, if I had followed the advice here, I would have turned my 60k redundancy into a rise over 10 years (say 120k) but I have enjoyed both income in excess of interest rates plus some capital growth. This was achieved by taking a risk and using gearing to invest in property. I might have invested in dotcom shares instead.

My own belief is that proeprty is a good long term investment.

This site has been, & is, anticipating a crash - and really the discussion is about how small/large it is/will be & timing about when prices will recover.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 338 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.