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Fairyland

Uk Mortgage Approvals Stage Biggest Jump In Over Six Years

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Question is who is buying at these rates???? I thought market was stagnant/falling. Makes me think am I deluded?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/06/02/uk-britain-lending-idUKKBN0OI0RX20150602

British mortgage approvals jumped by the most in more than six years in April, the Bank of England said on Tuesday, the latest sign of a bounce-back in the country's housing market.

The BoE figures also showed growth in lendinglb_icon1.png to consumers remained strong, underscoring the lop-sided nature of Britain's economic recovery.

Mortgage approvals for house purchases numbered 68,076 in April, hitting their highest level in 14 months and up strongly from 61,945 in March.

The BoE said the monthly increase was the biggest since February 2009.

Analysts in a Reuters poll had forecast 63,000 mortgage approvals were made in April.

The number of approvals fell throughout most of 2014 as regulators introduced new controls on mortgage lending, cooling house price growth and easing concerns about a bubble in the housing market.

But there have been signs that the housing market is heating up again. Mortgage approvals have risen in four of the last five months and the pace of price rises has picked up.

Net mortgage lending, which lags approvals, rose by a less than expected 1.735 billion pounds in April, the BoE said, slowing from March.

The BoE said consumer credit grew by 1.173 billion pounds in April. Economists had expected an increase of 1.0 billion pounds after consumer lending jumped by nearly 1.3 billion pounds in March, its biggest increase since February 2008.

Despite only weak rises in wages for much of the past five years, Britain's economic recovery has relied largely on spendinglb_icon1.png by households.

The strong levels of consumer demand now contrast with a weaker outlook for British manufacturers. A survey of the factory sector published on Monday showed activity in May only inched up from a seven-month low touched in April.

The BoE said lending to non-financial businesses fell by 1.631 billion pounds, reversing much of a 2.719 billion-pound increase in March.

Edited by Fairyland

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BTLers, where, in the north? In the south most of the properties I went to see were BTLers selling of. Very few OO properties.

Saturday, I saw one very centrally located in one of the popular towns. EA was telling me how it is a good for investment as it currently fetches a handsome sum of £x . Quietly I told him I am looking for living not investing. Then I asked him why are they selling as it is generating a good revenue stream for them. EA said their daughter is looking to buy so they will sell this and fund her deposit…… Karma coming back to bite….. I thought.

Edited by Fairyland

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Maybe people apply for more than one mortgage...makes sense when one feels one might be rejected by one firm

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Still looks like the early stage of a new credit cycle (counter-intuitive as it may seem)

Ben Chu @BenChu_ 2h2 hours ago

Consumer credit annual growth in April highest since May 2006:

CGfAvsgWoAA40Uq.png

rather than the wages must rise, I think you are observing the credit must rise.

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Question is who is buying at these rates???? I thought market was stagnant/falling. Makes me think am I deluded?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/06/02/uk-britain-lending-idUKKBN0OI0RX20150602

I can only imagine it's BTLers now thinking it's boom time again.

It looks like the town center here ( Northampton ) is SSTC, all the terraced houses are being snapped up at bargain prices :lol;

It makes me wonder how many people would you need this country going round towns offering on houses to create an economic boom.

Im not suggested the BoE or The tories or anyone else for that matter did this but is it possible to do it with a few hunderd people ?

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Credit growth 7%.

Real economic growth, next to nothing, quite possibly negative once the next bout of inflation hits.

Going to end well again, not.

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I can only imagine it's BTLers now thinking it's boom time again.

It looks like the town center here ( Northampton ) is SSTC, all the terraced houses are being snapped up at bargain prices :lol;

It makes me wonder how many people would you need this country going round towns offering on houses to create an economic boom.

Im not suggested the BoE or The tories or anyone else for that matter did this but is it possible to do it with a few hunderd people ?

It's all part of Osborne's Plan Z.

Positive-Money.pngWorldWarZfilm_2.jpg

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I can only imagine it's BTLers now thinking it's boom time again.

Yes and they are incredibly gross yield focussed. (i\Inflation will take care of mortgage and costs over time apparently). You need to see some regulatory changes, tax exemptions, rent caps, HB reduction before you see the BTL crowd getting bearish.

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Question is who is buying at these rates???? I thought market was stagnant/falling. Makes me think am I deluded?

Not many - these are merely APPROVALS. Land Reg stats show SALES down 17% E&W year to Feb.

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Still looks like the early stage of a new credit cycle (counter-intuitive as it may seem)

Ben Chu ‏@BenChu_ 2h2 hours ago

Consumer credit annual growth in April highest since May 2006:

CGfAvsgWoAA40Uq.png

I'm a great believer in the cycle. Fwiw i have been spot on with my house price predictions since 2006.

Last year I predicted +7%, this year I predicted +7%....in 2006 I predicted a peak to trough real fall of -37.5% (which I can no doubt find if pressed), the turnout was -34% real (2007-2012)

Still think there are better opportunities than houses now and recent National results are rather flattered by the South.

This is what we all thought last December.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/202479-2015-economic-predictions-thread-merged-topics/page-3

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/202479-2015-economic-predictions-thread-merged-topics/page-3

Edited by crashmonitor

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Highest level in 14months sounds like slightly up on the year on year analysis. Considering the fall in fixed rate fix mortgage rates for those that can access seems like a subdued rise. Still though the SVR's are up at plus 4.99%. Low supply. I expect the mortgage prisoners articles to increase as there must be quite a number. It would be interesting to know how many years of transactions stuck on tye svrs?

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I think some perspective is required on April's approvals number.

I posted the historical mortgage approvals for house purchase chart in the Sundry Statistics thread earlier. However even this is a little misleading. You have to consider that back in the mid-1990s the UK's private housing stock stood at around 19m dwellings. Today there are roughly 23m.

If we therefore plot monthly mortgage approvals as a proportion of the tradeable housing stock we see that we're still a long way from the pre-crash norm:

MortApprovals0415_PropOfStock.gif

Furthermore, total household debt isn't increasing at anything like the rate that the OBR has forecast. They have had to constantly revise down their projections for the expansion of household debt, and already their latest estimates look to be well wide of the mark.

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Question is who is buying at these rates???? I thought market was stagnant/falling. Makes me think am I deluded?

The HPC victim squad needs to stop the Estate Agents to stop dragging people off the street to viewings, and stop the bankers then dragging the same people into the banks to arrange and sign mortgages.

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Not many - these are merely APPROVALS. Land Reg stats show SALES down 17% E&W year to Feb.

The BoE approvals figure is a strong leading indicator. It does not include multiple applications or remortgages - they explain the statistics very well on their website.

What I'm not so sure about is why people are simply accepting these figures at face value? The BoE has a huge vested interest in massaging them. Anyone who thinks they wouldn't do so is naive in the extreme IMHO.

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Not many - these are merely APPROVALS. Land Reg stats show SALES down 17% E&W year to Feb.

Why should we trust any of the regime's claims/statistics? One day we will all discover that it was all- lies.

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I have seen several people I work with in their 20's buying with help from the government. I have also has a couple of relatives moving home so I guess a large proportion of the credit growth may be the same old people moving home and borrowing an extra 7% to do so - because house got 7% more expensive.

Does it not follow that if house prices go up then you will need to borrow more to buy one?

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Does it not follow that if house prices go up then you will need to borrow more to buy one?

Et viola! Shame we don't celebrate lower lending figures ergo less debt being taken on due to lower prices! Funny old world.

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Et viola! Shame we don't celebrate lower lending figures ergo less debt being taken on due to lower prices! Funny old world.

Again the bizarre situation of a government claiming it wants to to reduce public debt while celebrating an increase in private debt as though there was any difference between the two. In fact the way debt was shuffled between the two sectors during the 2008 banking crisis shows they are very much interchangeable. Indeed the Spanish state had a budget surplus prior to that financial melt down. It was bailing out the bad private debts held by their banks which virtually bankrupted them. Cheering the blowing of leveraged unproductive asset bubbles that are going to suck money out of the rest of the crony is even more crazy.

Edited by stormymonday_2011

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Why should we trust any of the regime's claims/statistics? One day we will all discover that it was all- lies.

Absolutely right. This website has become very credulous in recent times, and naively swallows whatever figures the BoE or the Land Registry produces. Stop for one minute and think who is behind those figures. And then remember all the proper evidence on this site of falling prices, houses sitting unsold for months or years, desperate VIs creating fake identities and coming on here pretending that they're FTBs who have just bought somewhere.

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Absolutely right. This website has become very credulous in recent times, and naively swallows whatever figures the BoE or the Land Registry produces. Stop for one minute and think who is behind those figures. And then remember all the proper evidence on this site of falling prices, houses sitting unsold for months or years, desperate VIs creating fake identities and coming on here pretending that they're FTBs who have just bought somewhere.

Stop it, you're killing me.

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