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«A Global Recession Is Inevitable»

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http://www.fuw.ch/article/a-global-recession-is-inevitable/

Charles Biderman, founder of the research firm TrimTabs spots a warning sign in the drop of the commodity prices and mistrusts the paper money of the centrals banks.

In every market supply and demand are determining the price. Charles Biderman uses this simple logic as the foundation for his investment philosophy. The outspoken founder of the research firm TrimTabs is convinced that stock prices are a function of liquidity—the amount of shares available to buy and the amount of money available to buy them—rather than fundamental value. Therefore, he carefully tracks the announced actions of companies. In his view they are among the biggest players in the stock market and the driving force behind today’s bull market. For now, Biderman thinks that this trend will push stock prices even higher. For the medium term though, he cautions that the financial markets are poised for a severe crash. He spots the first signs of a global recession in the drop of the commodity prices and warns of the moment when people don’t trust the paper money of the central banks anymore.

Mr. Biderman, once again the economy is not doing well. Nevertheless, the stock market in the United States seems to be in record setting mood. What’s behind the rally?
What’s present in the stock market in the moment are companies, their transactions, buyers and sellers of stock. That’s all what happens in the market. So if you count the number of shares available and how much money is available you might get a sense of what’s going to happen. Since 2011, the amount of shares in the market has been declining every year. Even though individuals are taking money out of the market, companies have spent around $1.6 Trillion in cash on takeovers and stock buybacks.

I think he's wrong it won't be a global recession it will be a depression. Although it could be the case that there are enough people to believe in the magic of central banking and their power to create credit to make good the losses within the banking system.

The next recession is certainly going to be an epic one from the policy perspective, will they pull the rabbit out of the hat again.

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A war is inevitable.

That's the banksters wet dream and they have been pushing for it for years but it won't happen.

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Oddly, he went from being a deranged perma bull in 2007 to a deranged perma bear (every time I see something by him) since 2008.

Video here. Debt doesnt matter because share valuations are going up faster. Regardless of debt being real, valuations a matter of opinion.

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A war is inevitable.

Yup

except this time it will be the people versus the banks/state.

They cant pull the old plays anymore we have the internetz and folk know the game. God knows they are desperately trying now, china, russia, funding isis, iran. They are clutching at any opportunity to "war" there way out of the mega collapse that is coming. Its not going to happen though, when it comes people are going to turn on the state and the banks and each other in a big free for all of chaos. ALl it takes is for people ot go to the bank one day and be blocked for there money and all hell will break loose.

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The UK has been in a de facto recession since 2008. Its borrowing has exceeded £100Bn on average each year since 2009, and we've had an emergency base rate of 0.5% since March 2009. The lowest base rate between 1694 and 2009 was 2%. On borrowing, for only one single year did Labour borrow more than the Tory/Lib coalition yearly average borrowing! The emergency base rate is a seriously desperate attempt to stop a full blown depression occurring. And yet....on any given day, you'll hear a BBC pundit flippantly say something like "with the UK's economy going from strength to strength..."

Edited by canbuywontbuy

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http://www.fuw.ch/article/a-global-recession-is-inevitable/

I think he's wrong it won't be a global recession it will be a depression. Although it could be the case that there are enough people to believe in the magic of central banking and their power to create credit to make good the losses within the banking system.

The next recession is certainly going to be an epic one from the policy perspective, will they pull the rabbit out of the hat again.

I think you mean to create money IRRO not credit.

QE is CBs creating money to buy existing assets.

The problem of what happens if we have another recession is not so much the CBs ability to create money, but rather govts willingness (at the zero bound) to create demand by fiscal stimulus. The problem we have had during the last parliament and most probably this next parliament in UK for instance.

CBs arent the problem - fiscal policy is the problem as Bernanke, Draghi, etc have correctly repeated ad nauseam. Politicians still aint listening.

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CBs arent the problem - fiscal policy is the problem as Bernanke, Draghi, etc have correctly repeated ad nauseam. Politicians still aint listening.

They most definitely are the problem when the say they are working under one mandate when they are actually woring under another. Rather than being a responsible independent unit they are thick as thieves with both the govt and commercial bank interests at heart.

If they were not the above we would not be in the mess we are in now.

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They most definitely are the problem when the say they are working under one mandate when they are actually woring under another. Rather than being a responsible independent unit they are thick as thieves with both the govt and commercial bank interests at heart.

If they were not the above we would not be in the mess we are in now.

Well theyre only "independent" in the sense that since 1997 the government of the day gave them operational indepedence for setting the monetary policy rate against an inflation target. They're not a different country or something.

Ofc the ECB is somewhat different in the sense that they set monetary policy (supposedly) for a currency region which doesn't actually have a government.

Edited by R K

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The unregulated shadow banking system (and the ~$100 trillion derivatives tower it precariously maintains) was the root cause of the crisis and it remains a systemic threat to future prosperity. Free market apologists like Bernanke and Draghi lack the conceptual wherewithal to understand this, though not Krugman - to his credit (though almost inevitably he's spoiled things by claiming that the Dodd-Frank Act is now working to constrain shadow banking activity when in fact the exact opposite is true).

Edited by zugzwang

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CBs arent the problem - fiscal policy is the problem as Bernanke, Draghi, etc have correctly repeated ad nauseam. Politicians still aint listening.

I'm still wondering whether RK is a paid shill or just thick... :wacko:

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http://www.fuw.ch/article/a-global-recession-is-inevitable/

I think he's wrong it won't be a global recession it will be a depression. Although it could be the case that there are enough people to believe in the magic of central banking and their power to create credit to make good the losses within the banking system.

The next recession is certainly going to be an epic one from the policy perspective, will they pull the rabbit out of the hat again.

ok so lets look at this from a natural perspective.

inflationary forces:

rising population globally

rising prosperity standards in the rest of the world(minus the west)

no restrictions on methods of supply(yet)..check geopolitics in ME/Greece /russia etc to see how that could change very quickly.

delfationary forces

increased production leading to easier supply to end point

more efficient means of transaction.(developed by the west)

on balance,commodities should be in a bull market,given that between the US and western europe there is only around 800 million people,out of a grand total of nearly 7 billion.

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