Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Fairyland

Big Fish(Htb) Swallowing Small Fish(Btl)

Recommended Posts

After following this site for 10+ years finally picked up the courage to post Today. I have been looking for houses to the west of London from Ealing to Reading. As I was just convincing(read kicking for missed opportunity) myself that Ealing will never fall a quick look shows, if not Ealing Broadway, West Ealing and Hanwell are definitely falling.

Links-

1) WestEaling reduced by 17.6%

2) West Ealing new Instruction at £339.50K. 2 BHK sold prices as high as £420K are recorded last year. Agreed each flat may be different and have some difference in price but £339.50K is asking so even if it sells for £320K a drop from a high of £420K is significant.

3) Hanwell new instruction at £329,950. Earlier Zoopla archive shows asking price of £475K on the same road - http://www.zoopla.co.uk/property-history/170-church-road/london/w7-3bl/34703128 and sold price for £495K.

If this continues for a while then all those self proclaimed SMART BTL INVESTORS outbidding first time buyers will have the time of their LIFE !!!!!!

Methinks, combination of housing benefit cuts and help to buy may have reduced rental demand/affordability hence these flats on market at a much lower price?

Over next few days my favourite sport would be to put a post code in Zoopla and sort the results by most reduced to see how the market is going.

Good Luck for everyone waiting for a crash.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hello (waves). Wellcome to the madhostel! I remember reading that Ealing is going to building lots of new properties which couldn't be sold via RTB.

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:bnnh0JYcpTQJ:www.insidehousing.co.uk/ealing-to-establish-development-coco/6529377.article+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=be

Also, I think a lot of London boroughs have a lot of building going on because builders and developers believe HPI is inevitable. But in the coming years this might create a glut of properties, especially if the government/future Mayor comes down hard on "buy to leave". I also read that there is a lot of professional "build to rent" happening in London (similar to what happens in Germany etc) whereby big, professional "housing associations" build properties to rent out. Not only will this increase competition and possibly shunt out accidental/scumlords with only a few properties but it should mean that renters can choose better value, well managed, properly run properties than what has historically been on offer.

http://www.24housing.co.uk/top-50-housing-projects

Edited by fru-gal

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think a clampdown on buy-to-leave will be required. That sort of proposition only makes sense for investors when prices are rising so quickly that it is more profitable to flip quickly than to hold and rent out. Fixed costs of renting out a place mean that it's not worth doing it for the short-term. Once prices stall or reverse, and add to that some rising global interest rates, and buy-to-leave becomes a very expensive proposition.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After following this site for 10+ years finally picked up the courage to post Today. I have been looking for houses to the west of London from Ealing to Reading. As I was just convincing(read kicking for missed opportunity) myself that Ealing will never fall a quick look shows, if not Ealing Broadway, West Ealing and Hanwell are definitely falling.

Links-

1) WestEaling reduced by 17.6%

2) West Ealing new Instruction at £339.50K. 2 BHK sold prices as high as £420K are recorded last year. Agreed each flat may be different and have some difference in price but £339.50K is asking so even if it sells for £320K a drop from a high of £420K is significant.

3) Hanwell new instruction at £329,950. Earlier Zoopla archive shows asking price of £475K on the same road - http://www.zoopla.co.uk/property-history/170-church-road/london/w7-3bl/34703128 and sold price for £495K.

If this continues for a while then all those self proclaimed SMART BTL INVESTORS outbidding first time buyers will have the time of their LIFE !!!!!!

Methinks, combination of housing benefit cuts and help to buy may have reduced rental demand/affordability hence these flats on market at a much lower price?

Over next few days my favourite sport would be to put a post code in Zoopla and sort the results by most reduced to see how the market is going.

Good Luck for everyone waiting for a crash.

Those are still incredibly high prices £375k for 2 bed flat.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have a good view up the Thames past Greenwich Peninsula from my window at work, and I can count 17 cranes in use for building projects just in my eyeline, so there is definitely some building activity going on.

For the bits of the country that are not commutable to London, a 10 year view looks pretty Japanese to me, despite a bit of a rally in 2013/14 caused by political interference.

London, on the other hand, looks like its on a far more conventional boom/bust cycle and heading for the latter....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Those are still incredibly high prices £375k for 2 bed flat.

Yes, over £300K or even 300K for a two bed flat is insane but some people pay that much. Probably panic buying last year as prices always go up…...

My guess is old flats are priced 20 - 25% less than new builds as they don't qualify for the HTB equity loan. I had a good chat with the HTB agent and it seems HTB equity loans can be used only for new builds so the 20% rise last year may have been a speculative rise. Also, HTB mortgage is 4.5 times salary (max) so it still puts a limit on how much a FTB can borrow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After following this site for 10+ years finally picked up the courage to post Today. I have been looking for houses to the west of London from Ealing to Reading. As I was just convincing(read kicking for missed opportunity) myself that Ealing will never fall a quick look shows, if not Ealing Broadway, West Ealing and Hanwell are definitely falling.

Links-

1) WestEaling reduced by 17.6%

2) West Ealing new Instruction at £339.50K. 2 BHK sold prices as high as £420K are recorded last year. Agreed each flat may be different and have some difference in price but £339.50K is asking so even if it sells for £320K a drop from a high of £420K is significant.

3) Hanwell new instruction at £329,950. Earlier Zoopla archive shows asking price of £475K on the same road - http://www.zoopla.co.uk/property-history/170-church-road/london/w7-3bl/34703128 and sold price for £495K.

If this continues for a while then all those self proclaimed SMART BTL INVESTORS outbidding first time buyers will have the time of their LIFE !!!!!!

Methinks, combination of housing benefit cuts and help to buy may have reduced rental demand/affordability hence these flats on market at a much lower price?

Over next few days my favourite sport would be to put a post code in Zoopla and sort the results by most reduced to see how the market is going.

Good Luck for everyone waiting for a crash.

Welcome, and I hope you're right and it's about to ripple out from London. But I won't hold my breath.

Still pure madness here in Oxford. A modest 3 bed 30s semi I was watching - came on at £495k - £20k more than a similar house a few doors up in 2013, just went SSTC for £130k OVER asking.

Only a mug works for a living in the UK it seems.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have a good view up the Thames past Greenwich Peninsula from my window at work, and I can count 17 cranes in use for building projects just in my eyeline, so there is definitely some building activity going on.

For the bits of the country that are not commutable to London, a 10 year view looks pretty Japanese to me, despite a bit of a rally in 2013/14 caused by political interference.

London, on the other hand, looks like its on a far more conventional boom/bust cycle and heading for the latter....

Agree the bust phase has started. Question now is when will it bottom out? Will there be any more props coming in the July budget?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hello (waves). Wellcome to the madhostel! I remember reading that Ealing is going to building lots of new properties which couldn't be sold via RTB.

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:bnnh0JYcpTQJ:www.insidehousing.co.uk/ealing-to-establish-development-coco/6529377.article+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=be

Also, I think a lot of London boroughs have a lot of building going on because builders and developers believe HPI is inevitable. But in the coming years this might create a glut of properties, especially if the government/future Mayor comes down hard on "buy to leave". I also read that there is a lot of professional "build to rent" happening in London (similar to what happens in Germany etc) whereby big, professional "housing associations" build properties to rent out. Not only will this increase competition and possibly shunt out accidental/scumlords with only a few properties but it should mean that renters can choose better value, well managed, properly run properties than what has historically been on offer.

http://www.24housing.co.uk/top-50-housing-projects

Thanks Frugal. I will go through the links.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Welcome, and I hope you're right and it's about to ripple out from London. But I won't hold my breath.

Still pure madness here in Oxford. A modest 3 bed 30s semi I was watching - came on at £495k - £20k more than a similar house a few doors up in 2013, just went SSTC for £130k OVER asking.

Only a mug works for a living in the UK it seems.

I think it will ripple out. I looked in Reading which seems to be very bubbly at moment. And locations between London and Reading are in the in stagnation phase (London last summer or 6-8 months ago).

I think the flats market is definitely hit because wannabe flat buyers fall in two categories : a) FTBs. They would rather use HTB to get on the ladder. 5 years interested free equity loan is tempting and it knocks off a good 20% of the price upfront. B) Investors will hold off as prices are dropping and demand for rental market may also drop as the FTBs who would have otherwise rented these flats will now use HTB to buy new builds. So in a way HTB is gradually killing the rental demand and that will make BTL properties come on market. Hence my thread title !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Noticed auto correct has changed some things in my post e.g.. #2 above is changed into some emotion. How do I edit my post?

b curved bracket produces an emoticon. Bottom right hand corner of your post to edit - click "Edit". Then "Save Changes".

Edited by billybong

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Need a recession to kick in to get the repo numbers up, then we should see some good price falls.

Well we are already in deflation. I think BTL can be hit by reduced rental demand. My observation is a property comes on rent for £x a month or two before it is available. Then as the availability date approaches rent goes on dropping to x-50, x-100 ….. until they find a renter. So a reduced demand causing falls in rental yield may make BTL unviable at some point?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3) Hanwell new instruction at £329,950. Earlier Zoopla archive shows asking price of £475K on the same road - http://www.zoopla.co.uk/property-history/170-church-road/london/w7-3bl/34703128 and sold price for £495K.

These two properties are not really comparable - the 'old' one is listed at over 1000 sq. foot whereas the new one's floorplan states "total area: 572.9 square feet".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Next General Election   90 members have voted

    1. 1. When do you predict the next general election will be held?


      • 2019
      • 2020
      • 2021
      • 2022

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.